The Golden State Warriors open the 2026-27 regular season tonight against the Lakers and as I’ve been thinking about how Steve Kerr might approach his starting lineup, whereby the fulcrum really is about who has to matchup with Luka Dončić.

Once you answer that question, you might find yourself answering two or three others about Golden State’s lineup, including one that I suspect a lot of people aren’t expecting: Could Graham Ike actually start at center in his first NBA regular-season game, now that Charles Bassey has been listed “out” due to knee tendinitis?

I’ve been considering these matchups since the preseason games against the Lakers and I have some fairly strong opinions about the coaching decisions I’d make. This isn’t a report that I’ve somehow uncovered Kerr’s starting five, though. When a reporter asked Steve at Tuesday’s practice [transcript below the paywall] whether he already knew who would start next to Steph Curry if Brandin Podziemski couldn’t play, Kerr acknowledged that he did know, then rather predictably declined to tell us.

Fair enough, Steve. That leaves us to connect the dots ourselves.

The starting five I’d choose

My preferred opening group would be one Wardell Stephen Curry II, De’Anthony Melton, Yaxel Lendeborg, Draymond Green and Ike (yes, I would’ve started Bassey if he were healthy), with Al Horford coming off the bench.

I’m considerably more convinced about Melton starting than I am about the center position. If you asked me to put a number on the likelihood that Horford doesn’t start, I’d say roughly 67%, which probably sounds suspiciously precise for an informed hunch, but that’s about where I am after listening to Kerr discuss the big-man rotation throughout training camp.

On Ike, Kerr has only said Ike would play in the scenario that Bassey is out, not specifically that he’d start. But before we get into the center rotation, the more interesting story begins with Yaxel and Luka.

Yax, Luka and a “WTF” moment

Remember when Yaxel told us what happened before the Warriors’ preseason matchup with the Lakers?

Frank Vogel had apparently informed him that he’d be guarding Luka and Yaxel’s immediate reaction was about as candid as you could hope for from a rookie being handed that kind of assignment.

“What the fuck?!” 😂

Here you are, still learning the subtleties of NBA defense and one of the league’s great offensive manipulators is supposedly going to be your responsibility. I can only imagine what it feels like to have Vogel casually present that assignment as part of your normal preparation.

Luka ultimately sat out that preseason game, so we didn’t get to see how it might have unfolded, but the idea certainly hasn’t gone away.

Here’s Yaxel’s original account, beginning at approximately 01:46:

Then came Kerr’s Monday practice interview, when Steve was asked about Yaxel’s NBA debut and told a wonderful story about Magic Johnson’s first game with the Lakers in 1979, in what would’ve been a viral moment with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar if they’d had the Internet and social media back then. I’ll have more on that in our upcoming Kerr video on the YouTube channel, but the important part for our purposes was how Steve transitioned from Magic’s rookie experience to what awaits Yaxel against Los Angeles.

“We got Luka. He may be guarding Luka. There’s some tricks that he’s gonna have to get used to.”

Kerr didn’t guarantee that Yaxel would spend every possession guarding Luka, of course. When asked to elaborate, he emphasized that the assignments would depend on the opponent, the matchups and whether the Warriors needed Yaxel defending on or off the ball.

But the coaching staff has clearly considered Yaxel against Luka in more than one setting, and when Kerr separately confirmed that Yaxel would be in the starting lineup Wednesday, the possibility of that individual matchup became a lot more interesting.

Yax vs. Luka Round 1: Probably Okay

Now, we’ve already spent considerable time examining Yaxel’s defensive liabilities, including a dedicated Xs & Os livestream in which we studied his point-of-attack technique, help-side positioning and some of the mistakes he made against Sacramento.

Keegan Murray got him biting on a jab step, Ben Simmons beat him off the first step and there were possessions where Yaxel was late recognizing where the help needed to come from. We subsequently saw some of those issues again against the Lakers, including a possession where Austin Reaves attacked downhill and Yax appeared too concerned about a possible crossover, rather than simply cutting off the driving lane.

Those are real areas for improvement, and I’m not suggesting they’re going to disappear just because Opening Night has arrived, but here’s where I think the Luka matchup becomes particularly fascinating.

Luka is not necessarily one of those exceptionally shifty guards who relies on pure quickness to turn the corner. I’m not even sure if the words, “I’ma burn you,” go through his head when he sets the offense, which kind of makes you respect that Dallas Mavs Finals team because chances are, that’s all that Kyrie Irving ever thinks!

The Doncic brilliance is more often rooted in his elite, ball-sticking ball-handling acumen, changes of pace and sheer overall size, which allow him to overpower opposing guards or manipulate their balance until he gets wherever he wants to go. It is absolutely so unique in the history of basketball.

We’ve seen in the past with Jonathan Kuminga that this particular approach isn’t always so easy against an athlete who’s closer to Luka’s size and strong enough to absorb the contact. And in Yaxel’s case, we’re talking about somebody who’s actually bigger than Luka and potentially just as mobile, if not more so, when it comes to moving laterally and staying in front of him.

That’s why I think Yax might find some initial success against Luka, at least until Dončić starts pulling out his entire repertoire of pump fakes, shot fakes, pivots and other tricks.

What happens at the point-of-attack versus what happens after Luka has used his body to get into the paint, that’s the key to understanding — unlocking — Luka Doncic.

At the point-of-attack, Yaxel might actually be okay. He has the length to give Luka some space without immediately surrendering an open shot, and the size to avoid being bullied backward quite as easily as a smaller guard. Luka can certainly use his handle and changes of pace to create problems on the perimeter, but I’m less worried about Yax losing a straight-line physical matchup than I would be against a particularly explosive, smaller guard.

The real test, in my opinion, comes after Luka establishes position closer to the basket, because that’s where he can go through his series of pump fakes, get the defender leaning or leaving his feet and draw the kind of fouls that can completely change a rookie’s night.

The question is whether Luka will be able to get to those spots more or less at will against Yaxel, as he often does against smaller defenders, or whether Yax’s combination of size and mobility makes that first part of the process considerably more difficult.

That’s what I can’t wait to watch tonight.

Melton teaching Yaxel the “lowlights”

When a reporter asked how prepared Yaxel might be to defend Luka, Melton talked about how young players see the SportsCenter highlights of great offensive stars, but their teammates have to teach them the “lowlights” — the less glamorous details of frustrating those players, making them uncomfortable and continuing to compete even when they make difficult shots. [Entire transcript also behind the paywall below.]

I thought that was an excellent way of explaining what Yaxel needs to learn. Melton specifically mentioned that not many opponents are going to be able to simply bump Yaxel out of position, but warned that the rookie can still bail offensive players out by reaching, swiping down and committing unnecessary fouls.

Which, when you think about it, fits almost perfectly with the Luka scenario I’ve just described. The challenge isn’t necessarily whether Yaxel has the physical tools to make Luka work for his points. I think he does. It’s whether he can resist taking the bait once Luka starts using those offensive tricks to manufacture an advantage, especially around the paint.

Vogel has been emphasizing physicality and his “collision mentality” throughout camp, but there’s a difference between being physical and allowing a clever offensive player to use your physicality against you.

I’m encouraged that Melton, one of Golden State’s most accomplished point-of-attack defenders, is helping explain that distinction to Yaxel, which brings us to the next domino.

Somebody has to guard AR

With Brandin Podziemski dealing with his back injury, I’d be genuinely surprised if Kerr doesn’t start Melton next to Steph, and it’s not simply because he’s the next available guard on the depth chart. It’s because of Reaves.

We already saw in the preseason how difficult AR can be when he gets into his preferred actions, attacks a defender’s positioning and turns a relatively small advantage into a good shot or a trip to the foul line. The Warriors have had their share of problems containing him and if Podz isn’t available, I don’t think Golden State can afford to treat that assignment casually.

I like Brandon Williams, or B-Dub, as a creator. He’s got speed, can get downhill and brings an element of unpredictability to the offense, while LJ Cryer provides shooting and Gui Santos offers size and versatility. But none of those alternatives strikes me as the best primary point-of-attack answer to Reaves.

Melton does. He has the instincts, active hands and experience to take that assignment without needing the offense to revolve around him. And while Steph will undoubtedly be part of the team’s defensive shell, I don’t particularly want Curry spending Opening Night chasing Reaves through every action the Lakers can put together.

So if I’m Kerr, Melton starts alongside Steph, takes Reaves as his primary assignment and allows Steph to begin on Quentin Grimes.

That feels like the most sensible defensive arrangement to me and one I’d be willing to defend even if Steve ultimately chooses a different starting backcourt.

Knowledgeable Lakers fan adds wrinkle

There’s another interesting variable here. It came from a knowledgeable Lakers fan friend of mine who suggested that Los Angeles might start Ziaire Williams instead of Sandro Mamukelashvili.

I thought that was a good observation because, while Mamu can contribute offensively, Luka already presents certain defensive challenges for the Lakers and adding another player who might be targeted defensively isn’t necessarily the way I’d approach a Warriors team with Steph Curry.

Ziaire gives Los Angeles another lengthy, more switchable player, somebody who could potentially spend time on Steph and provide a different defensive look.

I don’t think that changes the lineup I’d choose for Golden State, but it affects how I’d think about the individual matchups. If the Lakers start Mamu, I’d initially assign Draymond to him, with Yaxel taking Luka and Melton handling Reaves. If Ziaire starts instead, there’s more flexibility in the forward matchups, although my priorities wouldn’t fundamentally change.

In fact, the possibility that Los Angeles might choose more perimeter defense makes me even less inclined to sacrifice Golden State’s own perimeter defense by leaving Melton on the bench.

And that’s why I see something of a domino effect here. Once you decide where to use Yaxel, then account for Reaves, some of the other pieces start falling into place, which leaves one rather large question.

Who starts at the 5?

The Lakers have Walker Kessler, while Golden State has Horford, Ike and various smaller configurations featuring Draymond or Yaxel.

I realize the conventional answer might be Horford and there are certainly good reasons for it. He’s the established veteran, can stretch the floor, understands positioning and has the experience to help stabilize a team working through changes to its offense.

But here’s why I’d seriously consider bringing Horford off the bench instead: minutes and rhythm. My expectation is that Golden State will be careful with Horford’s workload, potentially keeping him somewhere around 20 minutes on many nights.

If you start him, play him for a relatively short opening stint and then sit him for an extended stretch, you’re asking an older player — and an important shooter — to repeatedly regain his rhythm.

I’d rather have Horford play more concentrated stretches off the bench, allowing Kerr to preserve his minutes for situations where his experience and shooting can have the greatest impact. And you definitely have to pencil him in as the closer, but starting the game and closing the game are two entirely different decisions.

I’m not suggesting Horford isn’t important enough to start. I’m just trying to maximize the value of the minutes he’s going to play.

Kerr said Tuesday that if Bassey couldn’t play, Ike would play and deserved the opportunity after his work in training camp. Steve didn’t say Graham would start, though, so that’s my own coaching suggestion.

Ike gives you the conventional center matchup against Kessler instead of asking Dray to spend the opening minutes battling that size inside. It’s a relatively straightforward positional assignment, even though a rookie making his NBA debut will obviously have plenty of other things to learn.

There’s also the two-way contract consideration. The Warriors have to manage Ike’s NBA availability over the course of the season.

Incidentally, with the Kristaps Porzingis news that just broke, the two-way games active limitation makes me think Mike Dunleavy, Jr. has to trade him. And so, come clean to the 29 other GMs that the Warriors are not hiding anything about KP and be intentional, announce that to Shams Charania of ESPN, and probably spend a weak first-round pick in the process. I will discuss this in an upcoming capacity cap sheet live and the link will eventually appear in our “Decision Tree” playlist.

Of course, Kerr could choose the smaller alternative, starting Gui Santos alongside Steph, Melton, Yaxel and Draymond, which would shift Draymond to the 5. That’s probably the strongest counterargument to my approach, especially given Kerr’s longstanding comfort with smaller lineups.

I just think Kessler makes the case for a conventional center a little more compelling than usual, particularly in the opening minutes. And all the projected Lakers starters are healthy on the injury report. Collin Sexton (calf) is questionable, and Adou Thiero and Cameron Carr are out.

How I’d line up defensively

If the Lakers open with Luka, Reaves, Grimes, Mamu and Kessler, I’d begin with Yaxel on Luka, Melton on Reaves, Steph on Grimes and Draymond on Mamu, leaving Bassey — or Ike, if Bassey can’t go — to deal with Kessler.

If my Lakers friend’s suggestion proves correct and Williams starts instead of Mamu, the forward matchups become more flexible, but I’d still want Yaxel to take that Luka challenge and Melton to make life as difficult as possible for Reaves.

Obviously, none of these assignments would remain intact for 48 minutes. There will be switches, help, cross-matches and all the usual adjustments, particularly against players like Luka and Reaves, who are constantly looking for ways to manipulate the defense.

But there’s value in deciding how you want to begin the game, and therefore how to not let Luka set the tone.

One rookie, a lot of responsibility

What encourages me most isn’t that Kerr has declared Yaxel the next Draymond or the next “face of the franchise”, even after Draymond himself spoke so enthusiastically about the rookie’s future. [That part is also in the transcript below.]

It’s that Steve has been careful not to place those expectations on him while acknowledging that Yaxel has earned a starting spot, can be trusted with the basketball and is ready to contribute immediately.

There’s a difference between protecting a rookie from unrealistic expectations and protecting him from the actual experience of competing against elite NBA players. Kerr seems quite comfortable allowing Yaxel to learn through the latter.

I think Yaxel’s physical tools might make that experience a little more interesting than people expect. Preferably without sending Luka to the foul line too often. Gotta just not bite on any fakes and if he hits a three with your arms stretched out with proper respectable body space, so be it.

Also consider joining us for the Watch Party tonight! The link will be posted on our Livestream Playlist in due time. After that, we will also have postgame coverage.

For paid subscribers: Kerr/Melton Q&As

Below are the October 20 practice Q&As with Steve and Melt, lightly cleaned for readability. They contain the original discussions behind several of the observations in this article, including Kerr’s remarks about Yaxel, his refusal to identify Steph’s starting backcourt partner, the possibilities involving Bassey and Ike, and Melton’s explanation of how the Warriors are preparing Yaxel to defend players like Luka.

Melton also discusses the evolving Warriors offense, including how its familiar split actions are changing within the new five-out approach, which is well worth reading beyond tonight’s particular matchup.

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THE QUICK TAKEAWAYS 🏀

• Yaxel Lendeborg is becoming a legitimate offensive weapon. His 17 points, five assists and varied shot creation suggest the Golden State Warriors can use him as much more than a traditional rookie forward.

• The Steph Curry x Draymond Green connection looked familiar again. Green finished with seven points, eight rebounds, 11 assists and three steals, directing an offense that looked particularly sharp in the third quarter.

• Al Horford and Georges Niang changed the geometry. Five threes from Horford and an early nine-point burst from Niang helped Golden State recover from an 0-for-7 start.

• The offense is evolving, but it’s still a work in progress. New five-out actions, an intriguing 1-1-1-2 formation, only 13 turnovers and a productive — if imperfect — night from Brandin Podziemski gave us a lot to study before opening night.

One of the things I love about doing these Warriors watch parties is that every once in a while, you’ll see a possession that makes you stop taking notes and start imagining possibilities.

Not just who scored or assisted, but how five players moved together, how a defender got pulled a few feet out of position, or how somebody recognized it without hesitation. Suddenly you’re watching a basketball team that looks like it knows exactly where it’s going.

We got a little bit of that Friday night at Chase Center. The Warriors beat the Portland Trail Blazers 128–118 to finish their preseason 4–2 and while I know we’re all supposed to remind ourselves that none of this counts in the standings, I found myself getting increasingly excited about the way the Dubs are playing.

Not every possession, of course. We started the game missing our first seven shots, but by the time Steph and Draymond started playing their familiar two-man game in the third quarter, Horford was launching threes as if he’d been playing alongside these guys for years, and Lendeborg was looking like a 6-foot-10 point-forward who can also score, I was beginning to see something.

The puzzle pieces weren’t all in place, especially with Jimmy Butler, Moses Moody and Kristaps Porzingis unavailable, but they were starting to look like they belonged to the same puzzle. And that, to me, was the biggest takeaway.

Niang Saved Us From an Awful Start

Let’s rewind to the opening four minutes, because they were not particularly pretty.

Steve Kerr started Steph, Podz, Yax, Draymond at the 4 and Charles Bassey at the 5. I liked the idea of Bassey as a more traditional center presence, particularly after the defensive difficulties against the Lakers, and he immediately showed some activity on the glass. There was an early possession where he got involved on multiple rebounds, only for the Warriors to come away empty. That seemed to be the theme early on.

Podz launched a three with Toumani Camara practically on his back. Steph had a steal that turned into a turnover when he tried to save the ball. Another Curry three missed. Another Podz three missed. By the time the Warriors were 0-for-7 from the field, Portland was threatening to make this another one of those nights where we’re discussing everything that went wrong before the first commercial break.

Yaxel finally got Golden State on the board with a nice downhill push shot, but we also saw one of those small defensive decisions he’ll need to keep working on. Deni Avdija attacked Draymond and kicked to Camara for a three after Yax helped off the perimeter. I wasn’t convinced that help was necessary initially, although on the replay it appeared Dray might have been beaten enough to justify some support.

That’s the kind of nuance I want us to preserve when evaluating Yax. These aren’t always obvious right-or-wrong decisions, especially for a rookie learning NBA personnel.

Then Damian Lillard — OakTown’s finest back in the Bay! — knocked down a pull-up three and the Warriors were staring at a 10-2 deficit. Kerr called timeout and rearranged the lineup.

Enter Georges Niang. I don’t know how many of you had Niang, first-quarter rescue mission on your bingo card, but he certainly wasn’t interested in waiting around for Steph to get going.

Niang cut inside, received a beautiful feed from Draymond and finished through contact against Camara for an and-one. Then came a three off an especially nice Draymond touch pass. Then another three, this one from the left corner, with Niang backpedaling into position during early offense after a Portland miss. Nine straight points from The Minivan, who said postgame on the podium that he hadn’t been able to “hit the broadside of a barn,” so he was due.

Just like that, we were tied 15-15 and a game that had been developing into an early offensive nightmare suddenly had an entirely different complexion. Niang finished with 13 points, all in the first half, and reminded everybody that while foot speed and athleticism matter, knowing where to go, how to cut and when to get your feet set can still produce tremendous value in Kerr’s system.

And remember, Kerr has spent this preseason talking about changing the Warriors’ identity and making smarter offensive decisions. This was a pretty good advertisement for that.

Those Little Yax Things in Q1

Yaxel’s final numbers, 17 points on 6-for-9 shooting, two threes, five assists, four rebounds, two steals and a block, are encouraging by themselves. But I’m much more interested in how he got there.

After Niang’s scoring burst, Yax attacked Scoot Henderson one-on-one. Scoot is a physically imposing guard, the kind of player who can disrupt smaller ballhandlers simply by getting into their bodies.

Yax wasn’t bothered. He used his size, got downhill and drew a foul on Yang Hansen. A little later, he intercepted a bad pass from Vít Krejčí, starting a possession that ended with Podz finding Niang for a reverse layup attempt and a trip to the line.

Then there was the play I really liked: Yax went between his legs, attacked to his left, drew the defense and kicked the ball back to Horford at the top for three. Bang!

And near the end of the quarter, Yax posted up Dame, forcing Portland into a defensive three-second violation by Hansen.

A rookie who can handle the ball on the perimeter, attack a smaller defender, pass to an open shooter and still establish a post-up when the matchup presents itself? That’s an interesting combination.

The Warriors went from trailing 10-2 to leading 35-26 after one quarter, a nine-point lead after missing their first seven shots.

A Little European Offensive Set

Now here’s something I suspect most ordinary game recaps won’t spend much time discussing. With just under two minutes remaining in the first quarter, the Warriors ran an unusual offensive formation that I described during the watch party as a 1-1-1-2 set.

Three players were staggered vertically, with two more positioned toward the corners. Horford was involved in initiating the action, De’Anthony Melton executed a slip cut and eventually drew a foul:

It wasn’t the most spectacular play of the evening, but I loved it. I love seeing the structure of a possession before the actual attack develops, because it gives you clues about what the coaching staff is trying to accomplish.

To my eye, this was a more European-style alignment than the familiar Warriors actions we’ve watched over the years. Maybe Terry Stotts experimented with something similar once or twice last season, but I honestly couldn’t remember seeing this particular look regularly from Golden State.

And that’s saying something, because I’ve watched an awful lot of Warriors basketball. Having coached myself, I probably would’ve stolen this play if I were still running my old team. That’s what coaches do. We see something clever and immediately start thinking about where we could use it. 🧠

This is one reason I’ve been enjoying the work of Kerr, Stotts, and Frank Vogel this preseason. There’s more experimentation going on than just telling everybody to stand outside the three-point line and calling it five-out. There are layers to the spacing, screening angles, slip cuts and how the Warriors initiate possessions.

For those of you who want more context around this from the livestream, the play begins around 46:46 of our full Warriors–Blazers watch party. I’d love to revisit that possession in a dedicated Xs & Os video.

Q2 Chemistry

Golden State opened the second quarter with a more familiar action. Dray established position in the mid-post, Bassey screened for Steph and Curry curled into a three — 38-26.

Then Draymond defended Dame well, helped finish the defensive possession, ran the floor and lobbed an alley-oop to Bassey — 40-26.

That’s what I mean by the offense beginning to click. You can execute a beautifully organized half-court possession, then turn around and generate an easy basket simply because Dray recognizes an opportunity before everybody else.

Bassey added a little push shot later, and while he finished with just six points in eight minutes, I liked some of his activity. Turns out, thought, Warriors trainer Drew Yoder told Kerr that Bassey was “banged up,” so Steve went back to the Draymond-at-the-5 lineup with Gui Santos at the 3 and Yaxel at the 4 to start the second half, per postgame reporting from the Bill King Interview Room at Chase Center by Dalton Johnson of NBC Sports Bay Area. Bassey did not return.

The interesting question, of course, is what that means for the starting lineup when the regular season begins. More on that in a bit.

Meanwhile, Yax produced two of my favorite individual plays of the half. On the first, Will Richard provided a ghost screen, Yax attacked downhill and threw down a powerful dunk against Sidy Cissoko.

On the next, he went directly at Cissoko one-on-one, absorbed the contact, scored and flexed. Cissoko could do nothing but walk away. This is exactly the kind of aggression Kerr has been asking for.

In fact, in our recent Podz-Kerr Q&A compilation, Steve specifically explained that the Warriors intend to play through Yaxel frequently and need him to look for his own offense rather than always deferring to teammates.

Think about that for a moment. We’re talking about a rookie coming into a team built around Curry, Green, Butler and a bunch of experienced veterans. And the head coach is already talking about playing through him!

It’s not an invitation to hijack the offense. It’s a recognition that Yax has skills the Warriors need to utilize. This game offered several examples.

The missed and-one free throws? We’ll work on that. Yax went 3-for-5 at the line overall, and there were a couple of missed opportunities to complete three-point plays, but the underlying process — getting into the paint, forcing defenders to react and creating advantages — was encouraging.

And yes, Horford kept shooting threes. At halftime, Al had 12 points, all on four triples, while Niang led the team with 13 and Yax had 11. Steph, meanwhile, was just 3-for-11 from the field. Golden State still led 67-58.

That’s a pretty significant development when you consider how much of the Warriors’ offense has historically depended on Steph being absolutely brilliant.

My Podz Diatribe — Part Twelve? 😂

I want to give Brandin his flowers here, but I also need to explain the distinction I’ve been making throughout preseason. Podz finished with 17 points, three made threes and only one turnover. Good game!

He made a four-point play in the second quarter off a Horford screen, played several excellent defensive possessions away from the ball, and grabbed one defensive rebound between two taller Portland players before pushing the ball ahead to Gui for a terrific step-through finish.

Later in the third quarter, he blocked Avdija, allowing Draymond to fire a touchdown pass to Yax, who moved it to Gui for another finish. That was beautiful basketball.

I’ve consistently said Podz is an elite off-ball player, and those are exactly the sorts of plays I’m talking about. What bothers me is what happens when he becomes the primary ballhandler against length and pressure.

He took those two questionable threes early. He had a push-off turnover in the first quarter. Later, Camara bothered him bringing the ball up and there were a few possessions where he picked up his dribble or allowed the defense to dictate what happened next.

To me, those aren’t the same issues as his off-ball decision-making. They’re separate skill sets and I’d love for Podz to study more of what Chris Paul did so well: keeping his dribble alive, controlling the defender, getting to the mid-range and creating an actual threat that forces the defense to respond.

It’s not that I want Podz to stop being confident. I want him to become more selectively confident.

Now, I did notice he celebrated his four-point play with the familiar Steph-style mouthpiece routine and the little one-two-three-four celebration, plus the mouthpiece-out-of-the-mouth thing we saw in Vegas while waiting for a free throw, so maybe he has chosen Steph as the template. If that’s the case, please go copy specifically Curry’s ability to keep his dribble alive.

And I should emphasize that Podz is still young and developing. There’s plenty of time for these details to improve. What I’d really enjoy is sitting down with one of the Warriors’ assistant coaches and asking whether I’m reading his on-ball limitations correctly, because maybe there’s something the coaching staff sees that I haven’t fully appreciated.

That’s the fun part of basketball analysis. You can have a strong opinion without pretending you know everything.

Q3 Resembled Warriors Basketball Again

This was easily my favorite stretch of the night. The Warriors outscored Portland 38-33 in the third quarter, but even that doesn’t adequately describe how connected the offense looked.

Steph opened with a three over Camara. Then he delivered a left-handed behind-the-back pass to Draymond, who drilled a three of his own — 73-58.

Podz scored on a slip cut, Yax knocked down a pull-up three off a Draymond screen, Gui scored on another five-out slip cut, with Dray collecting another assist — 80-66:

The ball was moving, people were cutting, defenders were being forced to make decisions, and the Warriors were beginning to look less like five guys learning new terminology and more like a team with a shared understanding of what it wanted to accomplish.

Then came an especially nice transition possession. Podz blocked Deni, Draymond launched a long outlet pass, Yax made the extra pass and Gui finished with a step-through — 85-66.

But perhaps my favorite possession was Curry and Green playing their little two-man game against Donovan Clingan. Steph went left-handed behind the back to Dray, received the ball again and toyed with Clingan before finishing with a banker.

During the livestream, I compared it to someone moving a laser pointer around while a cat tries to chase the dot. That’s what it looked like! 😂

Clingan was trying to react to the ball, but Steph and Draymond were already a step ahead. That’s the chemistry we’re so accustomed to seeing from those two.

A little later, Draymond found Steph for another three after Gary Payton II provided a late screen that felt executed via ESP. Gary then stole a Ja Morant pass and raced all 94 feet for a layup. I think he initially wanted to dunk it, but changed his mind at the last second and settled for a banker layup.

Then Steph collected a long rebound, pushed a 4-on-3 break, turned the corner at the left elbow and lofted one of those pretty left-handed bankers off the glass — 94-70. Good ol’ fashioned beautiful Warriors basketball.

Why Yax Could Change Everything

I keep coming back to one particular question: What happens when Jimmy and Moses return — and Yaxel becomes another player opposing defenses have to game-plan for?

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The Golden State Warriors were down 20 points to the Los Angeles Lakers in the third quarter Tuesday night in Las Vegas. They won by 12.

Normally, that kind of comeback would have me pretty excited, especially in a preseason game where we’re looking for signs of growth from the younger players, but something interesting happened during our Let’s Go Warriors livechat Watch Party. Or, perhaps more accurately, something didn’t happen.

Even as Yaxel Lendeborg helped spark the comeback, De’Anthony Melton piled up six steals and Will Richard suddenly couldn’t miss from three-point range, our live chat remained relatively quiet.

I can’t speak for everyone watching, but my own enthusiasm was somewhat tempered by what we had witnessed earlier. There wasn’t the kind of collective excitement I might have expected from a team that had just erased a 20-point deficit. Maybe we were still processing that second quarter debacle.

Because as encouraging as the comeback eventually became, the Warriors had spent a good portion of the game looking eerily familiar — and not in a good way. It reminded me of the GOAT-less 37-45 debacle from last season, when the 82-minus-43-game absence of one Wardell Stephen Curry II left us confronting just how ordinary this team could look without its organizing force. Of course, Draymond Green didn’t play due to what Steve Kerr pregame facetiously labeled as “experienced” (read: rest). I did not make that comparison to the 2025-26 campaign explicitly during the livestream, but the feeling was certainly familiar.

Tuesday’s second quarter, of course, featured Curry himself. And somehow, the Warriors still looked disorganized. Heck, Steph didn’t actually look all that normal and, real-time, even long-time Warriors beatwriter Nick Friedell of The Athletic agreed, after I saw Curry throw the ball way too high for a Charles Bassey alley oop, then not really try all that hard to run back on defense:

There were lazy passes, questionable decisions, players getting trapped after picking up their dribble and turnovers that led directly to easy Lakers baskets. At times, it looked like the Warriors were playing a completely different brand of basketball from the one Kerr has been trying to establish throughout training camp.

So when Steve spoke afterward and said his team wasn’t anywhere close to where it needed to be, I found myself agreeing. He wasn’t the only one frustrated.

Twenty turnovers. Again.

The Warriors actually began the game reasonably well, playing the Lakers to a 29-29 tie after the first quarter.

We saw some encouraging offensive sequences, particularly from Lendeborg and Bassey. There was a beautiful after-timeout pick-and-roll that allowed Yaxel to get downhill and finish past Walker Kessler’s help defense. On another possession, Bassey tapped out an offensive rebound, Yaxel saved the ball while diving into the Warriors bench and Brandin Podziemski converted the resulting corner three.

Those are the kinds of plays that make you appreciate the possibilities within the new five-out system, but the second quarter was almost painful to watch.

George Niang got doubled in the mid-post and lost the ball, leading to a Matisse Thybulle and-one in transition. Brandon Williams threw an unsuccessful alley-oop toward Bassey. Podziemski got stuck with his dribble against Austin Reaves and later threw another lob too high. Bassey left his feet to pass and sent the ball out of bounds.

And those were hardly the only examples. What bothered me wasn’t simply the number of turnovers. It was the nature of them. These weren’t all ambitious passes attempting to create something special. Too often, they were basic mistakes in recognition, spacing and decision-making.

The Warriors trailed 63-50 at halftime and eventually fell behind by 20 in the third quarter. They finished with 20 turnovers, bringing their total to 104 through five preseason games, along with just 24 assists Tuesday night.

Add their 21-for-31 performance at the free-throw line and you begin to understand why the final score didn’t tell the whole story. Kerr called the second-quarter mistakes “mindless turnovers,” explaining that they had allowed the game to get away. And he was right.

But beyond the turnovers themselves, I worry about what they reveal regarding the Warriors’ readiness to execute the offense Kerr wants. This is supposed to be a team that benefits from collective basketball intelligence, movement and the ability to make quick decisions. Too many possessions Tuesday night demonstrated the opposite.

Yaxel: The fulcrum of the comeback, with work still to do

One of the main reasons I was looking forward to this game was the opportunity to study Yaxel’s defense following our recent Xs & Os livestream. We had specifically identified point-of-attack defense and help-side positioning as areas where he needed improvement.

Against the Lakers, some of those same concerns resurfaced. There was a possession in the second quarter where Chris Manon drove and Yax was slow adjusting, eventually fouling from behind.

On another, Reaves attacked downhill to his left. Yaxel appeared concerned about a potential crossover — deep in the paint where that’s unlikely to happen — and failed to cut off the more immediate driving lane.

He also picked up his third foul before halftime while defending Kessler. Granted, Al Horford also did not play tonight as an additional 5 to throw at Kessler, but those details matter if Yaxel is going to start for the Warriors, as Kerr has suggested is increasingly likely.

But they don’t negate everything else he contributed. In fact, Yaxel was arguably the fulcrum of the third-quarter comeback. His energy on the offensive glass was particularly noticeable. After Podziemski kept a missed Steph three alive, Lendeborg won a MegaTron-like jump ball against Jake LaRavia, and the ensuing possession ended with an alley-oop to Bassey.

I loved that Yax pointed back toward Podz afterward, recognizing the hustle that helped create the opportunity.

A little later, Yaxel followed up another missed shot with an offensive rebound and putback that cut the deficit to seven. He kept battling, even after stepping on Reaves’ foot and suffering what initially looked like a concerning ankle injury. He eventually returned after briefly heading to the locker room.

By the end of the game, he was on his feet cheering for his teammates. That kind of enthusiasm is infectious. We can appreciate Yaxel’s energy, his developing offensive chemistry with Bassey and his willingness to do the little things while still recognizing the defensive improvements he needs to make.

He’s not going to fix all of those habits overnight. Sometimes player development is about making that incremental one-percent improvement every day. And Yaxel has given us plenty of reasons to be interested in following that process.

Of course, it remains to be seen if that ankle needs some rest with the last preseason game set for Friday against the Portland Trail Blazers again at Chase Center. Lendeborg said as much in the locker room postgame, as reported by the usual beatwriters, from the locker from before the squad hurried out of T-Mobile to avoid, reportedly, the halt in air traffic with the President arriving in Vegas soon,

Why Podziemski can be so frustrating — and so valuable

Another theme from our Watch Party was Podziemski’s unusual combination of strengths and weaknesses.

I’ve been saying that Podz is almost the inverse of what we’re accustomed to evaluating in basketball players. When he has the ball and tries to create offense, he can look below average. He sometimes holds it too long, struggles to create separation or gets himself into situations where he has to kill his dribble.

We saw examples against Reaves and even Sandro Mamukelashvili, when Podz couldn’t execute a convincing step-back move. I understand why those possessions frustrate fans. They frustrate me, too.

But when Podz doesn’t have the ball, I think he can be elite at the things that help teams win. He takes charges, grabs offensive rebounds, makes slip cuts, anticipates passing lanes and finds ways to manufacture extra possessions. He also looks considerably better when he makes his decisions quickly.

One of my working observations is that when Podz holds the ball for less than two seconds, good things tend to happen. His second-quarter catch-and-shoot three off Steph was a good example. And in the fourth quarter, after Bassey, Gui Santos and Bassey again collected three consecutive offensive rebounds, Podz converted a “reload” three that gave Golden State an 81-78 lead.

That possession captured something important about his value. He wasn’t required to manufacture a difficult shot through an extended dribbling sequence. He simply needed to be available, catch the ball and make the play.

I think this helps explain why Kerr values him and why our evaluation shouldn’t be reduced to whether we like watching him create offense.

Interestingly, Kerr made a related observation after the game when discussing Podziemski’s defense. He said Podz was better defensively off the ball than on it, while pointing to his craftiness, good hands and positioning.

“Brandin is definitely better off the ball than on the ball,” Steve said in the postgame scrum outside the Warriors locker room. “But he’s better than you think. He’s really crafty. He’s in the right spots all the time. He’s got good hands.”

I’ve been considering a dedicated video essay about why Podz can be so frustrating to watch and why that shouldn’t cause us to overlook everything he does well. There’s considerably more nuance here than deciding whether a player is simply good or bad.

Melt & Will gave us something to cheer

As the game moved into the second half, Golden State’s defensive intensity improved dramatically. Melton was a major part of that. His six steals helped disrupt the Lakers’ offense and create opportunities in transition. He was active in passing lanes, made timely deflections and contributed to a defense that allowed only 13 points in each of the final two quarters.

And then there was Will Richard. Richard finished with nine points in 14 minutes, going 3-for-4 from three-point range. All three makes came in the fourth quarter. He hit one against a Lakers zone — which was an odd choice at the time by J.J. Redick — another after Los Angeles switched to man-to-man and a third from the left corner as the Lakers pressured the ball after the Dubs crossed halfcourt, which was another odd choice.

He also forced a Bronny James turnover and collected an impressive leaping offensive rebound. Richard looked engaged on both ends of the floor and ready to capitalize when his opportunities arrived.

Could this earn him more minutes against Portland on Friday?

I’d certainly like to see more of him, although the rotation decisions aren’t necessarily simple. Golden State still needs to give Melton, Brandon Williams and other players opportunities to establish their roles. By the way, Williams did well to decrease his turnover rate against the Lakers, committing just one against two assists. Luca Evans of the SF Chronicle had mentioned to Steve that B-Dub had racked up more turnovers than assists in the three preseason games played prior to heading to Vegas.

Richard is at least making that decision more interesting for Kerr. And Bassey deserves recognition, too, particularly for his offensive rebounding, tap-outs and pick-and-roll chemistry with Yaxel. Bassey’s only problem was his turnovers, often committed trying to go from inside to the perimeter. Another off stat: at one point before halftime, seven of the Warriors’ ten turnovers had been committed by forwards or centers.

His four giveaways were frustrating, but his activity around the rim helped Golden State manufacture some of the extra possessions that eventually changed the game. He has the elite ability to get a touch on the ball on nearly every rebound in his vicinity. That’s something he can build on.

The difference between the two halves was remarkable. The Warriors had just two offensive rebounds before halftime. They collected thirteen afterward. For all the concerns about execution, that improvement in effort and physicality was real.

The Draymond problem isn’t going away

One issue that kept coming up throughout the livestream was just how much the Warriors miss Draymond when he isn’t available to organize the offense. Green rested Tuesday night, Horford remained in the Bay Area and Kristaps Porzingis still had no definitive return timetable, although he was spotted in Santa Cruz, apparently getting a haircut:

Who knows, assuming the barber wasn’t posting a flat-out lie, we can maybe speculate that Porzingis got some work in with the Santa Cruz Warriors?

In any case, back to the performances at T-Mobile Arena, Dray had five assists against Sacramento, many generated through the five-out system the Warriors have been emphasizing. Well, those assists aren’t simply individual statistics. They represent the recognition, timing and shared understanding that allow players like Podziemski to cut into open spaces and make quick decisions without needing to create everything themselves.

When Draymond isn’t on the floor, that structure can become much less reliable. And while it’s fair to point out that the Warriors were missing important players, the Lakers weren’t at full strength, either. Luka Dončić rested, Collin Sexton was absent, and Los Angeles didn’t play its regulars for extended minutes late in the game, so we shouldn’t overstate what the comeback proves.

The larger question is whether the Warriors have enough reliable playmaking, size and defensive organization to withstand the inevitable absences over an 82-game season.

Kerr knows the Warriors aren’t there yet

Kerr’s postgame comments were unusually revealing about what he believes still needs to improve. He wasn’t questioning the players’ character or willingness to work. He praised their effort, energy and commitment. His concern was their execution.

Specifically, he explained that the Warriors are trying to move away from some of the random offensive actions they’ve relied on in previous seasons, instead establishing consistent spots, cuts and recognition after made baskets. That’s a substantial adjustment for a team accustomed to the improvisational genius of Curry and Green.

Steve also acknowledged that the first-half pick-and-roll defense was poor. He emphasized that containing someone like Reaves requires a coordinated five-man effort rather than one defender handling everything alone. And when asked whether he thought the roster had enough talent, Kerr didn’t want to dwell on who was unavailable.

He believed the Warriors had enough to become a really good team, but they had to accomplish it together. I agree with the sentiment, but what I struggle with is how close the regular season is and how far away the execution still appears to be.

The Warriors have spent training camp talking about the importance of movement, spacing, cutting and sound decision-making, yet through five preseason games, they’ve accumulated 104 turnovers.

Some of those are understandable growing pains. Others look like mistakes that shouldn’t be happening with such regularity at the NBA level.

The second-half comeback was evidence of the team’s competitiveness. The second quarter was evidence that its basketball habits still need considerable work. Both things can be true.

As a former coach who had to deal with careless turnovers made by his team, I know how hard it is to hold back. But at the same time, it should be an easy mental adjustment to just keep everything away from the red-line when needed, like 3rd or 4th gear only if there’s been a giveaway the last possession. It would be nice to be a fly on the wall at practice.

Comeback ≠ celebration

I’ve been thinking about the relatively quiet atmosphere in our Watch Party as the Warriors made their comeback. I don’t want to overinterpret the lack of comments. People watch games differently and not everyone feels compelled to type something every time a team makes a run, but it seemed to reflect some of what I was experiencing myself.

When you’ve watched a team spend an entire quarter turning the ball over, failing to execute basic actions and surrendering opportunities, it’s difficult to erase that impression simply because the opponent starts missing shots and your own team finds some energy.

The comeback was fun. Yaxel was fun. Will’s shooting was fun. Melton’s defense was terrific. Yet the overall performance still concerned me about how this team is going to function when the regular season begins and the competition becomes less forgiving. Oh, and Steph and Dray might want to consider dialing it back a little in the passing department at times, too, but then again you run the risk of reining in the so-called “Organized Chaos”.

Maybe that’s why a game like Tuesday’s can produce both appreciation and frustration. The frustration doesn’t necessarily come from negativity. Sometimes it comes from caring deeply about the team and playing the game the right way.

As such, maybe it’s time for DubNation to dial back its expectations — ironically parallel to the sun setting on Organized Chaos.

I still enjoyed watching Yax dive into the bench, seeing Bassey battle for offensive rebounds, watching Melt disrupt the Lakers and witnessing Will Rich make three big splashes in the fourth quarter.

And above all, I enjoy the privilege of watching Steph Curry play basketball, even if it’s only preseason. You can tell, so far, he’s holding back for the good of the team, too. The Warriors have one final preseason game against Portland on Friday before the regular season begins. I’ll be watching for cleaner possessions, better defensive recognition and signs that Kerr’s five-out system is becoming more natural for everyone involved.

A comeback from 20 points down deserves appreciation. Twenty turnovers deserve scrutiny — at least it’s all happening with Curry only logging 23 Draymond-less minutes and, in general, deferring.

Watch the timestamped reactions and postgame analysis

We’ve updated our Warriors-Lakers Watch Party with timestamped live reactions, individual play analysis and a complete quarter-by-quarter recap. You don’t need to sit through the entire three-hour livestream. Jump directly to the conversations that interest you:

• 1:25:31 — Why we miss Green

• 1:50:03 — Lendeborg ankle scare amid the comeback

• 2:25:21 — Richard heats up

• 2:36:30 — Full quarter-by-quarter recap

• 2:55:57 — Kerr’s candid postgame assessment

What was your emotional reaction to the comeback? Did you find yourself celebrating, or were you still bothered by the turnovers and the overall execution? I’d particularly love to hear whether others felt that same tension during the second half.

A little more on Podziemski, for paid subscribers

There’s a longer discussion I’ve been wanting to have about Podz, because I think the usual arguments about whether he’s good or bad miss something fundamental about his game.

Below, I’m taking a closer look at the plays that frustrate me, without yet going into too much minutiae, the things he does exceptionally well without the ball and why understanding that difference could be important when evaluating his role — and eventual $110 million — alongside Steph and Draymond.

This is also a conversation I’m considering bringing to Wednesday’s Warriors news livestream, definitely with some Xs and Os evidence fr this Laker game, and perhaps as the foundation for a separate video essay.

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Read more

At some point Saturday night, I said something on the livestream that sounded ridiculous even as it came out of my mouth: “This is the year of Yaxel Lendeborg saving the franchise.”

I was joking. Mostly. Lendeborg had just gone from 10-and-6 to 14-and-8 in what felt like the blink of an eye. By the end of the third quarter against the Sacramento Kings, he was sitting at 23 points, 10 rebounds and six assists on 10-for-14 shooting. The Warriors eventually won 111-106.

And yet the box score probably undersells what made this performance so interesting. It wasn’t just that Yaxel scored. It was the way the Warriors increasingly treated him like someone who should have the ball.

There was one possession late in the second quarter where Yaxel brought the ball up, swung it to ome Wardell Stephen Curry II, and Draymond Green started moving into position for the kind of Steph-Draymond action we’ve seen approximately eight billion times over the last decade, except Steph saw Yaxel’s matchup and he gave the ball right back.

Yax attacked one-on-one and scored and that might have been my favorite play of the night, not because it was some spectacular highlight, but because of what it suggested: Steph trusted the matchup.

A few possessions later, Draymond saw the same thing. Yaxel had Precious Achiuwa in front of him. Draymond essentially told him: “Go!” So Yaxel went, attacked, got to his push shot, scored and flexed. That’s a real 6’8” NBA rotation player he was going through. And it turns out this was pretty much exactly what Steve Kerr had asked him to do before the game.

“He’s a player who’s very instinctive, but his mindset is usually to pass first, which we love about him,” Kerr said pregame. “But given the nature of our team, the makeup of our team, we’re going to need him to score.”

Steve specifically wanted Yax attacking in transition, getting downhill and putting pressure on the defense. Against Sacramento, that message appeared to have been received.

What continues to surprise me is how many different things Lendeborg can already do offensively. He hit the right-corner three early off a Green kick-out, rebounded and pushed the ball himself, went coast-to-coast, used hesi’s and footwork inside, crossed over Achiuwa, slowed down, absorbed contact and finished an and-one, and created for other people.

At the end of the third quarter, he pushed the ball up the floor, got to the nail and sprayed it out to Brandon Williams for a buzzer-beating three. Six assists, one turnover through three quarters from a rookie forward.

And there was another five-out possession I loved: Draymond at the pinch post, with both Brandin Podziemski and Lendeborg cutting in succession before Yaxel finished at the rim. We keep talking about what this new five-out offense could eventually become. Yaxel looks increasingly important to that conversation because he isn’t limited to one job: screening, cutting, attacking a closeout, bringing the ball up, making the next pass. And apparently, now, Curry is willing to look at a matchup and say, basically, “Nah, Yax has this one.”

Kerr’s postgame comments made that part even more interesting: “He’s huge and can handle the ball and get to the rim. We’re going to play through him a lot this year.”

Then Steve was asked directly whether Yax essentially has the green light to grab a rebound and go coast-to-coast: “For sure.”

The Warriors want to increase both their transition frequency and efficiency after struggling in that area last season, and Kerr said Yaxel can “put a ton of pressure on the rim and create shots for himself or for others.”

The instruction is essentially to keep attacking until somebody stops the ball, then make the next pass. That explains a lot of what we were watching Saturday.

But…

Now for the part we’re studying Sunday. The offense is the easy part right now, but the defense is not. That’s exactly why I’m doing a full Yaxel defensive Xs & Os livestream Sunday night at 8:00PM Pacific.

We got more film Saturday against the Kings. Some of it was encouraging, some of it definitely was not. Keegan Murray got Lendeborg with a jab early and made him bite. Ben Simmons beat him off the first step. Murray got him again later, going left-to-right.

There were also possessions where Yax was late helping on a roll or didn’t provide the kind of transition help I wanted to see. This is where I want to be careful. I’m not looking at those clips and concluding that Yaxel can’t defend. He’s a rookie being asked to process NBA spacing and speed, switches, help responsibilities and some very good individual offensive players. That’s a lot.

But if we’re going to get excited about everything he’s showing offensively (and we should) then we owe it to him to be just as specific about where he has to improve defensively, because the Warriors as a whole have a problem there. The point-of-attack defense was bad, again.

Sacramento got downhill far too easily. It wasn’t just Yaxel, it was Podziemski, even Gary Payton II on a couple possessions, Gui Santos, too, and the guards getting brushed by screens and the next layer of the defense having to react.

Lendeborg already having 20 points and eight rebounds at halftime and yet Golden State only up five, that told you a lot, so tomorrow we’re going to look at the actual film rather than just saying “good defense” or “bad defense.”

Where is Yax’s stance, what is he reacting to, when does he bite, when is he supposed to provide help, and when is something that looks like his mistake actually the result of a breakdown somewhere else?

By the way, Williams looks like, as long as he stays healthy (knock on wood), he’s in an awfully strong position to make this team with that guarantee date of Opening Night. Kerr’s own pregame answer only strengthened that impression.

With Steph expected to practice less and probably miss some games this season, Steve specifically volunteered B-Will’s name: “We’re excited about Brandon Williams, who’s a new player for us. He’s got a chance to play a lot of those minutes when Steph’s not there.”

Then again, Williams had five turnovers Saturday. And that leads us directly to the part of the night that made me want to bang my head against the desk: the bakery remains open.

At one point in the first quarter, the Warriors had four turnovers in roughly the first five minutes and were on pace, mathematically, for nearly forty.

That obviously didn’t happen and they settled down for a while, but then they started doing it again. The final number, according to Kerr after the game: 23 turnovers.

“At least half of them, just unforced errors,” said Coach. “Our whole purpose in training camp is to win the game in the margins. You’re going to hear me say that a lot. And the ball is everything.”

Santos finished with five turnovers, B-Will (“B-Dub?”) had five, Steph threw one away early and Draymond had a couple mental mistakes out of the gate, including a cross-court pass that edned up with Podz having to lurch and stepping out of bounds (turnover, BP — technically not on Dray although he deserved it).

Not to mention, Horford looked rusty and gave some possessions away before getting into a better rhythm later. Right now the turnovers are still a disease infecting the Dubs’ bloodstream.

Kerr and Mike Dunleavy, Jr. talked about internal improvement at the exit interviews. Saturday night, I found myself saying something else.

The internal improvement has actually been external because Yax wasn’t here last year and neither was B-Dub. Those are the guys giving you some of the clearest signs of improvement, but meanwhile, the “tee-bee-tot” problem looks awfully familiar (aka TTBTTOT or “throwing the ball to the other team”).

Kerr wasn’t sugarcoating that part afterward, either: “You just can’t make mindless plays in this sport and expect to win at this level.”

However, Steve came through with something else that made me very happy. He plans to clip eight to ten of the turnovers and show them to the team at Monday’s practice.

YES! We have a turnover to-do list.

Hopefully the bakery closes by Opening Night.

For paid subscribers, I’ve added a postgame notebook below with some of the most useful additional context from Kerr’s pregame and postgame media sessions — including what his answers suggest about Williams, LJ Cryer and Graham Ike, how the Warriors are thinking about Curry’s workload, and why Kerr’s comments about Lendeborg make Saturday’s performance even more significant.

I’ve also pulled out the most relevant portions of the podium transcripts so we can go a little deeper into what the Warriors themselves were saying before and after the game.

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Postgame Notebook: What Kerr’s Comments Tell Us

There were a few other things from Kerr’s pregame and postgame media sessions that are worth filing away because they provide some clues about the Warriors’ rotation beyond just what happened against Sacramento.

First, the B-Dub observation above wasn’t made in a vacuum. Steve was asked how Golden State plans to compensate for the reduced workload the team is deliberately putting on Steph this season.

The Warriors are trying to balance giving Curry enough work to find his rhythm without overloading him, and Kerr said that at age 38, “this year that will definitely mean less court time” in practice.

The goal remains to have Steph available for as many games as possible, although Coach acknowledged the reality that he will probably miss some.

That’s when Williams’ name came up first.

“We’re excited about Brandon Williams, who’s a new player for us,” Kerr said. “He’s got a chance to play a lot of those minutes when Steph’s not there.”

Kerr then mentioned Cryer and Will Richard among the young players the Warriors are evaluating in different non-Curry combinations.

I still wouldn’t call that an official declaration that anybody’s roster spot is completely untouchable, but coaches reveal plenty through the players they voluntarily include when discussing real rotation problems they expect to encounter during the season.

Williams being the first name out of Kerr’s mouth in that answer is noteworthy,m and Cryer being specifically included in the group being evaluated for those minutes certainly doesn’t hurt his standing, either.

There was another useful data point after the game regarding Ike.

“We’re going to have to lean on our depth,” Steve said while discussing how the Warriors will manage their veterans. “Even our two-way players, I’ve really enjoyed watching Graham Ike play this preseason. He didn’t get in tonight, but I feel like he can help us win some games.”

Kerr then mentioned Charles Bassey as well. This becomes even more interesting because, moments later, Kerr was asked about Kristaps Porzingis and whether Golden State anticipates him being unavailable to begin the season.

“He’s not here yet,” Kerr said. “We’ll just play it day by day.”

That does not technically make Ike’s two-way spot “safe,” and I don’t want to put words in Steve’s mouth. But if we’re trying to read the tea leaves, a coach saying a two-way center can help them win games while the veteran center they acquired remains away from the team is another pretty meaningful data point.

And then there’s Lendeborg. Kerr’s postgame assessment might have been the strongest confirmation yet that the Warriors aren’t merely experimenting with him because it’s preseason.

“We’re going to play through him a lot this year.”

That’s a pretty remarkable sentence to hear about a rookie this early. He isn’t merely being given permission to bring the ball up after a rebound. The Warriors appear to view that as an actual feature of the offense. Steve wants him attacking in transition because he believes Yax can create either his own shot or someone else’s, so when we saw Steph defer to him Saturday night and when we saw Dray tell him to go attack Precious, perhaps those weren’t isolated veteran gestures toward a rookie having a good night.

Maybe that is increasingly what the offense is supposed to look like. That makes figuring out the other side of the equation — his defense — even more important.

We’ll get into that film Sunday night.

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If you only watched the Golden State Warriors’ first preseason game against the LA Clippers, a 104-101 loss for the Dubs, you could be forgiven for wondering what exactly had changed.

There were turnovers. There were possessions where the offense bogged down. One Wardell Stephen Curry II and Draymond Green were still throwing the ball either to the wrong team or out of bounds a few times, early. Brandin Podziemski only went 1-for-4 from deep and tried to score under the basket against the 6’11” Baba Miller, only to get snuffed out completely.

The Athletic’s beatwriter Nick Friedell tweeted out that the basketball looked like a “carbon copy” of last year’s performances and, well, he wasn’t wrong — although the main guys were limited to playing only the first half, so they didn’t really get an opportunity to right those wrongs.

And yet after spending the last week collecting all the little pieces from Hawaii — practices, scrimmages, player interviews, family footage, the luau, the preseason game itself — I actually thought the trip accomplished something that a box score was never going to measure:

The vibes were real.

It wasn’t manufactured social-media “vibes,” it was actual relationships forming in front of us. Considering the Warriors reportedly spent somewhere in the seven figures to transplant training camp to Hawaii, that matters. Kirk Lacob told Luca Evans of the San Francisco Chronicle that part of the reason for going was precisely to put players with long-established relationships into a different setting that could help create new ones.

We got to watch some of that happen.

If you followed our Day 1 behind-the-scenes (BTS), Steph’s 58-straight-threes Day 2, the Day 3 open scrimmage, the luau and Days 4–5 BTS, and finally the Clippers Game Day BTS, the larger story wasn’t any one practice or one possession.

It was all the little things accumulating.

Jimmy Butler, unable to play because of his ACL rehab, still became one of the loudest presences around the group. He took a liking to Malevy Leons, encouraged him to get his “swag” up, and suddenly Leons was appearing at practice outfitted in sleeves, a headband and enough accessories to look like someone had emptied the equipment locker onto him. Jimmy was also visibly rooting for him during the scrimmage.

Then there were all the other small moments:

• De’Anthony Melton fooling around with Charles Bassey during the anthem.

• Melton giving Yaxel a playful side-five after scoring over him in the scrimmage.

• Draymond sitting next to Yaxel and coaching him through a defensive rotation.

• Yax doing his rookie camcorder duties — and insisting, “I’m on top of mine.”

• Yaxel dancing.

• Gui Santos and Podziemski dancing with him at the luau.

• Curry making his ridiculous “super-scoop” during layup lines, then going through the ritual of jumping side-bumps with teammates — with even newer Warriors understanding that apparently this is simply what you do when Steph makes it.

• Curry and Gary Payton II competing one-on-one.

• Steph staying on the court after everyone else had finished practice, once again the last one out of the gym.

None of that guarantees a championship, doesn’t fix the turnovers nor make an old team younger, but chemistry is one of those things that everybody dismisses as fluff until a team doesn’t have it.

And from everything we were able to see in Hawaii, this group seems to genuinely enjoy one another.

Tweaked offense, same conductors

The more intellectually interesting question is whether the basketball itself is actually changing.

Steve Kerr has been very explicit about wanting to move toward five-out spacing. The basic idea is obvious enough: rather than having a traditional center occupying the paint or operating primarily as a hub around the elbow, all five players can threaten the defense from the perimeter.

That changes the geometry of the floor, and that is a meaningful departure from some of the visual language Warriors fans have watched for years.

Think about those classic possessions with Andrew Bogut or Kevon Looney around the high post, Steph and Klay Thompson running split cuts around them, defenders grabbing and chasing, the big man reading the action and delivering the ball.

With 5-out, Al Horford creates something different. He can simply stay outside. Because the defense has to respect his three-point shot, the paint can remain open without Golden State sacrificing a center-sized body. I showed a couple examples from the scrimmage, then also showed how that was different than when Klay was on the team, here at the 52:22 mark:

We saw that repeatedly in Hawaii. Horford knocked down catch-and-shoot threes. Yax spaced to the corners and wings. Podz kept trying to get two feet into the paint. Even Dray is being asked to change one of his longtime habits — instead of automatically trailing the break as a secondary ballhandler, Kerr said he wants him running ahead and filling space.

But this does not mean Steph and Draymond suddenly stop orchestrating the offense. One of my favorite possessions in the Clippers Game Day footage showed exactly that: Draymond had the ball. Yaxel was nearby. Steph was actively directing traffic, pointing to where he wanted Draymond and using Yaxel’s body and positioning to create the route he wanted before popping open. Green chose an entry pass to Lendeborg against a smaller defender. Yaxel kicked out to Al in the corner for a tree, which actually makes you wonder if Yax should’ve just powered over the smaller Max Strus. That happened at the 13:37 mark of our Game Day BTS video:

That may be the bridge between old Warriors basketball and whatever this new version becomes.

The system is changing, but conductors are not. Steph and Draymond don’t need another October to learn their two-man game, which helped them beat the Clippers back in the Play-in game. They’ve spent more than a decade solving defenses together. The challenge now is learning how to place three other bodies around that partnership differently and how to make those bodies more threatening.

So perhaps “five-out” shouldn’t be understood as replacing Warriors basketball. It may be more accurate to think of it as putting the Steph-Draymond operating system inside new geometry.

Which brings us back to Yaxel

This is where the Hawaii experiment gets interesting. Kerr’s expectations for Lendeborg go beyond asking a rookie to stand in the corner and make open threes.

After the Clippers game, Steve said Yaxel is capable of becoming Golden State’s “lead offensive threat” when Steph is off the floor. That is a very different assignment, especially when considering what I noticed during Summer League Watch Parties and even back to the Final Four at Michigan — to me, Yax with his skill set has looked like a big Scottie Pippen. I’ve even called him “Stockie Pippen” since then.

But the coaching staff wants more aggression from him, while Yaxel himself has tended to describe his job somewhat differently, controlling the offense, getting teammates involved and scoring when the opportunity presents itself.

That distinction may become one of the most important developmental stories of the preseason. Yaxel naturally wants to make the right play, which is very Pippen-like.

The Warriors are essentially telling him that sometimes the right play is for Lendeborg to attack. We already saw the tension in Hawaii. He made an open corner three almost immediately against the Clippers, moved the ball well, rebounded, created for others and also passed up opportunities where Kerr wanted him looking to score.

Curry’s message afterward was similar: they don’t want passivity, and they’re willing to live with mistakes if Yax keeps applying pressure, which is why Portland is suddenly fascinating.

The main veterans are not expected to make that second leg of the back-to-back. Whether that schedule was constructed with developmental opportunities like this in mind or simply emerged from all the logistical realities of preseason, arena availability and the Hawaii trip, the result is the same. The younger Warriors are going to have to play.

And Yaxel may not have the luxury of wondering whether it is too early in the shot clock to take an open three. Somebody has to initiate, pressure the defense and score.

So forget “Stockie Pippen.” I’m looking for Lendeborg to be more like, idk, young Sixers Charles Barkley?

“Sir Yax”!!! Let’s go!

Bonuses: Full postgame Q&A transcript for paid subscribers who want the source material behind some of the observations above, I’ve included the full Kerr/Draymond/Steph postgame transcript below.

And two more great recap reels of Steph from the game 👇

🫶💙💛

[00:02:17] What were your impressions of how the team played today?

[00:02:22] STEVE KERR, POSTGAME GSW-LAC: Typical first preseason game, a little rust early. Not a great shooting rhythm. But a lot of good stuff. We have a lot of stuff on tape now to work with and things to improve on. But overall, a really good week here in Hawaii, and now we gotta build on it.

[00:02:43] What do you think of the team’s spacing?

[00:02:46] Spacing was not great. Three or four plays in the first half where we didn’t get the corners filled and we kind of did some random stuff and got into some tough situations, and that caused some turnovers. So spacing, flow, all that stuff has to improve.

[00:03:07] Did you sense any of that — obviously preseason, but also the nature of implementing the new stuff you’ve been doing — do you sense that was stemming from it?

[00:03:14] Yeah. First week, so implementing a lot of new things, and preseason where guys are a little jittery, shots aren’t going quite yet, maybe their legs aren’t quite underneath them. But like I said, a lot of stuff we can work with.

[00:03:31] Was the pace that you guys played with in the first half about what you have in mind?

[00:03:35] I guess. I mean, I’m not looking at the exact pace numbers or anything like that, but look, we wanna develop a good flow to every game, whatever that means. So first half they took it to us. Their ball pressure hurt us. They disrupted some of our half-court stuff. And like I said, we weren’t getting to our spacing, and that disrupted a couple of possessions as well.

[00:04:01] Biggest takeaway from tonight’s game?

[00:04:04] We have a long way to go, but we’re on a good path.

[00:04:07] What’d you think of Yaxel?

[00:04:08] Yaxel’s good. We need him to be more aggressive. A really key play in the second half, early in the second half, where he has the ball right underneath the basket and he turns it over trying to throw it to Charles. They hit a three at the other end. Like, that’s gotta be a layup. We need Yaxel to have an aggressive scoring mentality, and that’s something we’re gonna work with him on because he can make plays and he can score.

[00:04:31] He’s looked really comfortable spotting up. How do you encourage that, especially kind of off the dribble and driving, particularly that?

[00:04:36] Encourage what?

[00:04:37] Him just being aggressive off the dribble, driving, particularly that.

[00:04:41] Yeah, you saw he made two beautiful passes in pick-and-rolls to Charles. So he’s very capable of being kind of our lead offensive threat when Steph’s off the floor. He connects the game beautifully. He just makes the easy play over and over again and looks good shooting the ball. So he’s a really good player, but he’s gotta get comfortable with the NBA game and with his opponents, personnel. Rui rose up and made a jumper on him in the first quarter. That’s just knowing personnel. You have to make him put the ball on the floor. But Yaxel’s five days into his NBA career, so it’ll take some time.

[00:05:23] What would you say about the atmosphere today for a preseason game?

[00:05:27] The atmosphere was great. Same as two years ago when we came here. Sold-out crowd. Everybody’s excited to see NBA basketball here in Honolulu, and it was fun to be able to play in front of a crowd like that with that energy and just feel the joy that people are getting from watching the two teams play.

[00:05:51] Seeing the crowd kind of treat you guys as the home team when technically you weren’t even that, what was that like for you guys?

[00:05:55] That’s what Steph Curry does. Everyone loves Steph all over the world, so wherever we are, we see his jerseys, we see our colors. People are cheering for us. It’s a good feeling to have.

[00:06:06] I think Brandon Williams was like plus-16, something like that. What did you take just from the lineups?

[00:06:12] Brandon — we haven’t had anybody like Brandon here since I’ve been here. Just the on-ball speed and ability to get transition hoops and get to the rim and pick-and-roll at that pace, that speed. He’s a real weapon, and we’re lucky to have him.

[00:06:27] What about the week in practice and things like that?

[00:06:30] We’re getting in better shape. Learning a new offense. Yeah, kind of sped up. But it’ll come together eventually. It’s gonna take a little time.

—

[00:06:42] How much of an adjustment, particularly for you, do you think this will be?

[00:06:46] DRAYMOND GREEN: It’s a big adjustment for sure. After you play a certain way for so long, it’s a big adjustment. But whatever, figure it out.

[00:06:56] What’s been the biggest change?

[00:06:57] It’s just kind of like — it’s not really — we’ve never really run sets, but I feel like it was very read-based. Like, you do this thing, this thing happens. This is kind of just pattern. So kind of figuring out the patterns.

[00:07:29] Steve [inaudible] . It’s gonna be less [inaudible] . Are you feeling that, seeing that? Is that an adjustment you like, or is that—

[00:07:34] Yeah, I definitely feel it. Whether I like it or not, it’s gonna happen, so I don’t wanna get off into whether I like it, dislike it. It is what it is.

[00:07:43] Your thoughts on being here in Hawaii? And you mentioned on your show that this has been the toughest camp you’ve done.

[00:07:50] Oh, Hawaii’s been great. I think for us, just from a practice standpoint, we’ve just kind of done more. We’ve kind of run the same offense for 10 years, so camp isn’t as strenuous. It’s not as much teaching, running, trying to get the reps so you can see the pictures. So I think it was just we played a lot more up and down, did a lot more running. But it’s good though.

[00:08:17] What were your takeaways from just the game tonight?

[00:08:21] Well, we have a lot to get better, that’s for sure. But overall, I think our defense was pretty decent at times. Obviously, gotta put it all together, but I think there’s not many takeaways after game one of preseason after five days of practice. You just gotta get better.

[00:08:38] Draymond, obviously it doesn’t matter whether you like it or not, but do you understand this new vision that Steve’s—

[00:08:45] Yeah. Yeah, I understand. Definitely.

[00:08:48] Getting to play here today in front of all these Hawaii fans, what was that like for you?

[00:08:52] It was great. A lot of enthusiasm out there, so that was all pretty amazing. Obviously there’s no NBA games over here really, so just to see the fans and their excitement felt great. You don’t get crowds like that in the preseason unless they’re at neutral sites. And obviously this being a neutral site, but even a little different being that we’re here on the island. But it was amazing for sure.

[00:09:20] What’s the most important thing you guys are gonna need from Yaxel on the defensive end in his rookie year?

[00:09:27] He just gotta — which takes time for rookies — know what’s going on. Seeing the pictures, knowing personnel, when to switch, when not to switch, kind of making those reads. But all that stuff comes with time.

[00:09:43] What’s the message to him after the first preseason game? Steve’s really pushing him to be more aggressive, it sounds like.

[00:09:48] Yeah, definitely pushing him to be more aggressive. But like I said, all those things, they come with time.

[00:09:54] Where have you seen the biggest difference from Podz a year ago to Podz now?

[00:10:00] I think he’s more confident. A lot more confident.

[00:10:04] What have you made of Frank Vogel and what he’s bringing to the team, and what kind of potential does this defense have?

[00:10:10] I think our defense definitely has potential. We got more size than we’ve had. Frank’s been great. He’s very direct in what he wants, but collaborative as well. But he’s brought some different calls, some different rotations and different things. So I think our defense has a chance to be good.

[00:10:30] How does that confidence from Podz show itself on the floor?

[00:10:33] I think a lot of times he would pass up shots and different things. He’s not passing up many shots, which I think is ultimately a good thing. You pass up an open shot, you kind of get yourself in trouble. So taking the open ones, taking the shots when they’re there, gets him in less trouble, which I think is good for him, good for everybody.

[00:10:54] Draymond, what’d you see from Brandon Williams out there?

[00:10:56] He’s fast. Really fast and crafty. He brings something to this team that we haven’t had in a long time. Just a guy who can really break down and get in the teeth of the defense. Break down the defense and get in the teeth. So yeah, really crafty.

[00:11:15] Steph, how would you describe kind of where you guys are at in terms of the learning curve of what the coaches have been throwing at you this week?

[00:11:26] Right on pace. We’ve had five good practices and then a game tonight where we can get some really good film on some patterns and things that we can obviously continue to get better at, and have more clarity about what we’re trying to do. It is hard to assess when you’re playing six-minute stretches, and this is about reps, film, getting in shape, and then increasing the expectations on execution every preseason game we have.

[00:11:58] Your thoughts on just how you played tonight? Obviously you made the shots and the crowd was loving it. Just your thoughts on the overall experience here in Hawaii this time around.

[00:12:06] Amazing energy to play in front of for a preseason game, especially after a beautiful week out here and our second time doing it. So a lot of great vibes. And I think you kind of thrive off of that early in the process of having something to look forward to, and good energy to play off of. So we appreciate the welcome here. And I know we’re all excited to get home, though, and kind of get into the routine of the entire preseason schedule.

[00:12:38] What has kept you going throughout all these years?

[00:12:40] I love it, man. I love — I mean, I was just talking to Al Horford about it. There’s so much work that goes into it, and every year it’s kind of a daunting task. You have the laundry list of stuff that you have to do to get ready to play. But as soon as you get out there on the floor, it’s automatic just how worth it it is, all the stuff that you go through, and how much we still enjoy playing and being competitive and being in that environment.

—

[00:13:07] How does your knee feel?

[00:13:08] STEPH CURRY: Feels great.

[00:13:09] Feels great?

[00:13:09] Yeah.

[00:13:10] What’s the difference for Yaxel to kind of obviously have that feel for the game, but continue to get a little more aggressive?

[00:13:21] The balance for a young guy who’s expected to have an impact is to walk that fine line of aggressiveness, but being okay knowing you’re gonna make mistakes and not getting deflated and being able to move on to the next play. But we don’t want anything passive, and I think he’s been answering that call early. You saw one of the first possessions, taking a shot when he was open, getting the offensive rebounds, driving. I know he wants a couple of those possessions back, but we want him applying pressure on both ends of the floor, but especially offensively, being able to create good offense for us and good possessions. So it’s not gonna be perfect. He’ll make mistakes. I think he hopefully can thrive off the fact that he can play through those, similar to when I was — with more expectations as a team — but similar to my rookie year. I got to play through that stuff early.

[00:14:17] Steve has talked about conversations that he’s had with you and Draymond at times this summer, talking about the changes that he’s gonna implement. How different do things feel right now in terms of that than they were last year, maybe for you personally?

[00:14:32] It doesn’t feel much different than every training camp where you’re trying new things to kind of reiterate what you need to do, understanding and feeling out the team that you have, ‘cause there are subtle changes of personnel and skill sets. The clarity around offensively especially, what we’re trying to do, is there. It’s just you need reps at it. And you’re always gonna get to a point where the best players have the ball and you’re gonna try to make plays. And as the game gets deeper into it, you kind of go to your pet actions that work. But over the course of 82 and over the course of 48 minutes every night, I think we understand what the task is of, one, cutting down turnovers, and two, just getting more organized offensively so there are clearer pictures for everybody. But it’s too early to kind of tell other than just keep going through the reps and trying to get better.

[00:15:31] What was the biggest takeaway for the week as a team?

[00:15:34] Do what?

[00:15:34] What was your biggest takeaway for the entire training camp this week?

[00:15:39] We had a very impressive luau at our hotel that included some fire — I don’t wanna be — I don’t know the term, but the fire spinning and the tribute dances — tribal dances — and all that type of stuff, and having everybody’s family there. That would probably be the most memorable. I’ve been in this league for 17, or going on 18 years. I don’t remember a single preseason game in terms of the outcome, other than Lindy Waters making a buzzer-beater here two years ago.

[00:16:15] [inaudible]

[00:16:16] That’s also a great one. So I got two. Two out of however many. So we’re not gonna get bogged down by the results of the game, but it was just good fun having everybody here and feeling like we got better physically and got some good chemistry amongst our team.

[00:16:30] All right, last one for Nick.

[00:16:32] What have you noticed the most in the last couple weeks in watching Podz now compared to where he’s been at?

[00:16:42] Same player, same talent, just he looks like he’s in better shape. He looks a little stronger, a little quicker. And then it’s about putting all those skill sets together and being decisive on the court when he’s out there. Shooting the shots he knows he’s supposed to shoot, not turning down threes if he’s open, making the right play. So I know he’s very determined. I talked to him during camp, and he said he had a great summer of making sure his body was right and being more — he was durable last year, but building off of that foundation to be available for us. So he’s obviously had a great camp, especially offensively. I want that to continue.

🫶💙💛

UPDATE — October 10, 2026:

Brandin Podziemski has now agreed to a five-year, $110 million extension with the Warriors.

The cap-sheet analysis below was written and published before the agreement. At the time, I modeled a hypothetical five-year, $100 million contract to see whether Golden State could make a major long-term commitment to Podziemski while still preserving its Summer 2027 optionality.

The actual deal came in $10 million higher.

What makes today’s news especially interesting, though, is that the central question remains the same: not simply how large the headline number is, but how the contract is structured — particularly in Year 1 — and what that structure means for the Warriors’ 2027 cap sheet.

Rather than rewrite the original analysis with hindsight, I’m leaving it intact below so you can see the exercise as it was originally worked through.

Saturday night, I opened up our Summer 2027 Warriors cap sheet on YouTube with what sounded like a pretty simple question:

How do you get Brandin Podziemski to a number that feels good enough for him and his camp without messing up all of the optionality Golden State has worked so hard to create for next summer?

By the end of the exercise, I think we found a pretty compelling answer. Also, somewhat counterintuitively, five years might actually work better than four.

$20 million per year just has a ring to it, not because I have been told that Podziemski is asking for exactly $20 million (I have not), but when you look at the market around him, it feels like a reasonable neighborhood to explore. More importantly, it gives us a round number from which we can start building an actual contract rather than just throwing opinions around about whether Podz is “worth” this much or that much.

Ayo Dosunmu just received five years and $112 million from Minnesota, or $22.4 million per year, with a player option in the fifth season. Peyton Watson received four years and $88 million from Cleveland in his sign-and-trade, or $22 million per year, also with a player option, plus a trade kicker.

Those are the two contracts I care about most when trying to establish the current neighborhood for Podziemski. Dosunmu is another combo guard who can start or come off the bench and just played extremely well in the postseason, while Watson is longer and more defensively versatile, but landed in roughly the same financial range, not to mention he was also a non-Lottery first-rounder in the same Draft as Podziemski, at No. 30 to the Denver Nuggets, of course. Both Dosunmu and Watson came in above $20 million per year.

I am deliberately not anchoring this exercise to Christian Braun’s five-year, $125 million contract. That deal was signed under a different market context, before another season of information came in, also on the heels of a seven-game Western Conference Finals ouster against the Minnesota Timberwolves, when Denver was still legitimately considered title contenders, just one year after their 2024 championship.

I view Dosunmu and Watson as much more useful present-day markers for this negotiation, so if Podz and his representation look at those contracts and say, “We belong somewhere in this general neighborhood,” I don’t think that would be particularly surprising.

The more interesting question is whether the Warriors can get there without sacrificing Summer 2027.

That is where this gets fun. I share the details below the paywall in written form, but if you don’t mind the answers in video form (with timestamps), check out the live:

If you enjoy this kind of Warriors cap-sheet work — working through what Golden State can realistically do before the move actually happens — consider subscribing to Let’s Go Warriors.

Paid subscriptions help support our independent Warriors coverage, livestreams, film study and deeper roster/cap analysis.

Now, back to the original exercise…

Podziemski currently projects to carry a cap hold of approximately $17.038 million in the summer of 2027 if the Warriors simply let him reach restricted free agency without an extension. That number matters enormously.

Golden State has spent a lot of time creating a cleaner 2027 cap sheet and in the version I have been modeling, the entire objective is to preserve the ability to go shopping for another major player while one Wardell Stephen Curry II is still here, rather than inadvertently eating away at that room with contracts signed a year earlier.

Spoiler: Making some reasonable assumptions about the optionality on Kristaps Porzingis’ non-guaranteed second year and the trending market for over-35 players like Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green, I’m relatively comfortable declaring that a max free agent slot of $61.9 million is very doable, even with Curry pegged at the $55.7 million for 2027-28 he just signed:

And yes, as of this writing, Karl-Anthony Towns still does not have an extension signed with the New York Knicks and long-time beatwriter Ian Begley just wrote that the two sides are far apart. I’m still thinking KAT when I see the max slot on the Warriors’ 2027-28 mock cap sheet and I’ll write more about this in due time.

Capsheets.com currently lists Podziemski’s 2027-28 cap hold at $17,038,375, with a projected $176 million salary cap, so my first instinct was pretty straightforward:

If we think BP ultimately lands around $20 million annually anyway, can we somehow make his first-year salary look more like that $17 million cap hold?

The answer is yes.

The 5-year/$100 million version

This is where Bird Rights become our friend. Because Podziemski would be extending with his own team, the Warriors can structure the contract using raises of as much as eight percent of the first-year salary.

And this is an important distinction that I actually corrected in real-time during the livestream: those raises do not compound at 8% every season. Instead, the maximum annual increase is always 8% of the salary in Year 1.

The NBA’s own CBA explainer gives the easy example: if Year 1 is $10 million, an 8% raise is $800,000 every year, producing salaries of $10M, $10.8M, $11.6M and $12.4M — not $10M, then 8% of $10.8M, then 8% of the next number, and so forth.

That distinction is what makes the Podz math so interesting. If you want a five-year contract to total exactly $100 million while using the maximum 8% raises, the first season only needs to be $17,241,379 (!). 👀

Then the contract progresses like this:

2027-28: $17.241M

2028-29: $18.621M

2029-30: $20.000M

2030-31: $21.379M

2031-32: $22.759M

TOTAL: $100 million

AAV: $20 million

That $17.241 million first-year salary is only about $203,000 more than Podziemski’s projected $17.038 million cap hold — just two hundred and three thousand dollars!

On a $176 million salary cap.

In other words, if my goal is to protect the Summer 2027 cap sheet, the difference between carrying Podz into free agency at his cap hold and already having him locked into a five-year, $100 million extension could be almost negligible.

That was the “aha” moment for me. We spent a good portion of the live actually building this out on the spreadsheet, right down to fixing the formulas so that the five salaries added up correctly to $100 million. Once we got there, the broader concept became pretty obvious: $20 million AAV does not necessarily mean putting $20 million onto the 2027 cap sheet.

4 years works too, but 5 is actually better

Then we tested the other obvious version. What if Podz doesn’t want five years? What if four years at the same $20 million average makes more sense?

Four years, $80 million with the same maximum raises looks like this:

2027-28: $17.857M

2028-29: $19.286M

2029-30: $20.714M

2030-31: $22.143M

TOTAL: $80 million

AAV: $20 million

Incidentally, we ran a poll and because I started the livestream pretty late at night, we only got ten votes, perhaps too small a sample size, but the bottom line is that 40% of the vote said Podziemski would be happy with $80 million over four years:

That’s perfectly workable, too, but notice what happened. His first-year salary went up.

The $80M/4Y version starts at about $17.86 million, while the $100M/5Y version starts at about $17.24 million.

By giving Podz the extra season and the extra $20 million in total contract value, Golden State actually saves roughly $616,000 on the 2027-28 cap sheet.

That’s not some franchise-changing difference by itself and I said as much during the live, but when you’re building a cap sheet where every $500,000 or $1 million can become useful around the margins, it is hardly meaningless either.

More importantly, the fifth year gives you something potentially valuable in the negotiation: the words “$100 million.”

The psychological component

Again, I have no idea what number Podziemski personally has in his head, and I don’t want to pretend that I do, but there is obviously a psychological difference between saying somebody received an $80 million contract and saying that player received a nine-figure contract.

Podz was the No. 19 pick in the 2023 Draft. If Golden State’s pitch eventually became something along the lines of, “We believe in you enough to give you five years and $100 million,” while the tradeoff was that the first season starts a little lower so the organization can preserve its ability to add talent around him, Steph and everybody else, I can at least understand how both sides could walk away feeling like they accomplished something.

Dosunmu is an interesting example here in his own right. He was the No. 38 pick and just secured $112 million, with the fifth season controlled by him through a player option. His deal escalates from about $19.31 million in Year 1 to roughly $25.49 million in Year 5.

Brandin at $100M/5Y would still come in $12 million below Ayo in total value and $2.4 million lower in average annual value. That feels like a useful negotiating reference point without suggesting that they are identical players.

And then there is the option question.

Team or player option? Fully guaranteed?

This is where the negotiation gets more interesting than the spreadsheet. From Golden State’s perspective, I would obviously love a team option on that fifth year. That comes in handy for optionality, precisely why Jonathan Kuminga’s second year was a team option, although we are talking about trade-ability of Brandin’s contract for the Summer of 2031 in this case for the Warriors. We might be splitting hairs and maybe that’s why the Wolves were okay with that final year player option for Ayo.

If Podziemski becomes significantly better than the contract, you pick it up. If circumstances change, the Warriors retain another layer of optionality. If he becomes a fringe All-Star-caliber player before then, maybe both sides eventually revisit the arrangement anyway.

But from Podz’s side, that is exactly why you would probably push back. Dosunmu got a player option. Watson got a player option. And if Golden State tells Podz, “Congratulations, you’re getting $100 million,” while Year 5 is actually a $22.76 million team option, his representation could fairly respond that he isn’t really being guaranteed $100 million at all.

The first four years of our five-year structure total only about $77.24 million, so if that fifth year belongs to Golden State, we need to be intellectually honest about what the contract really is.

Maybe the compromise is five fully guaranteed years. Maybe Podz gets the fifth-year player option. Maybe Golden State gets some other concession.

A player option isn’t all that bad. It allows the player to opt-out and construct a further extension, potentially baking in some of that final year into future out years, security and longevity versus abruptly reaching free agency again — this is what Draymond did this past summer in concert with the LeBron James pursuit, although that scenario never came to fruition.

I don’t know what Podziemski’s agent, the legendary Bill Duffy, and Mike Dunleavy, Jr. will ultimately be discussing behind closed doors, assuming negotiations get that far, but by the time you are haggling over who controls Year 5, you have probably already solved the much larger question: approximately how much money Podziemski is going to receive.

And $20 million AAV continues to look like a very interesting middle ground to me.

Why the 2027 optionality matters most

This is the part I think gets lost when fans react to contract totals. Five years, $100 million sounds enormous, but NBA contracts don’t exist in a vacuum. The timing of the salary matters, the percentage of the cap matters, what else is on your books matters and what the cap sheet allows you to do next matters.

My Summer 2027 model remains exactly that: a model, not a prediction. It assumes some pretty aggressive things, including significant veteran discounts elsewhere on the roster and decisions that could change dramatically depending on health, performance and what happens between now and next July, but the broad objective remains clear: Golden State wants optionality.

The public cap sheet itself illustrates why the summer is so interesting: with certain cap holds renounced, CapSheets.com currently calculates more than $47 million in space and a maximized scenario north of $63 million, against the projected $176 million salary cap — a max player slot is $61.9 million and, often times on cap experts’ estimates, Porzingis is included at his fully guaranteed figure of $20 million as a default, even though he’s only guaranteed $3 million.

I don’t run my mock cap sheet that way. I try to look at what’s the most realistic for the Warriors, specifically, and in the Porzingis case, let’s face it. As of today, KP looks much more like a guy who will be waived around or before July 7, 2027 and GSW will eat that contract but only at the cost of $3 million. That could change, obviously, and we have ten months to get there, so a lot can change. But today, my mock has him at $3 million and we roll with that.

The precise amount will change depending on every decision made between now and then. The important part for this Podziemski discussion is simpler. If his extension starts around $17.24 million, it barely changes the number that was already sitting on the cap sheet for him anyway.

That means we don’t necessarily have to choose between “pay Podz” and “preserve 2027.” There may be a structure that does both.

There is also risk — for both sides

This isn’t free money. If you commit five years and Podz doesn’t improve, the Warriors have a long-term contract on the books that they may eventually wish were shorter.

If Podz believes strongly in himself, meanwhile, he may prefer four years, a player option, or even the risk of reaching restricted free agency rather than locking himself into a deal that could become below-market if he makes another major leap.

That’s the negotiation. The Warriors would be buying cost certainty and potentially getting surplus value later. Podz would be getting security now.

The structure I like is essentially using the back-end of the contract to reconcile those two interests while protecting the season Golden State cares most about preserving.

The rising salary cap also helps. A salary approaching $23 million several seasons from now should represent a smaller percentage of the cap than the same number would today, assuming the cap continues to increase, which is why, after going through all of this on the live, my thesis became pretty simple:

I think five years at approximately $20 million per year makes a lot of sense. Maybe it’s not exactly $100 million, or the options and guarantees change, or Podziemski’s camp wants more, or Golden State wants less.

Obviously, a lot can happen before anything gets signed, but if you’re asking me to build a contract today that could plausibly make Podz feel like Golden State made a substantial commitment to him while also protecting the Summer 2027 cap sheet, this is where I would start:

Five years, approximately $100 million, maximum 8% raises.

That gets you to $17.24 million in Year 1. Then keep the 2027 optionality that made this entire exercise worth doing in the first place.

Sometimes the headline contract number isn’t the number that matters most. On this cap sheet, Year 1 might be the whole ballgame.

POSTSCRIPT:

The hypothetical deal modeled in this article was five years/$100 million. Podziemski ultimately agreed to five years/$110 million.

So no, we did not predict the exact contract.

What I find more interesting is that the logic behind the exercise held up: a five-year structure gave Golden State another way to make a significant commitment to Podz while thinking carefully about the first-year number and its Summer 2027 optionality.

Process >> Results.

🫶💙💛

Late Friday night, ESPN’s Shams Charania broke the news that the Memphis Grizzlies and Jordan Hawkins had mutually agreed to part ways via waivers, an unexpectedly quick ending to a Memphis tenure that lasted less than a month after the Grizzlies acquired Hawkins from New Orleans on September 8.

The 24-year-old was the No. 14 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, five selections before the Warriors took Brandin Podziemski at No. 19.

Here is where things get interesting from a Warriors perspective: I’ve been told that Golden State had interest in Hawkins during the 2023 Draft process, specifically that Warriors scouts liked him as a prospect.

Let me emphasize what that does (and does not) mean. I have not been told that the Warriors are currently pursuing Hawkins, nor am I reporting that a conversation has taken place between Golden State and his representatives. What I know is that there was interest in Hawkins as a prospect three years ago and now, a former Lottery pick who is only 24 is unexpectedly becoming available at precisely the point of the calendar when teams are making their final roster decisions.

That is enough for me to start connecting some dots.

Perhaps the most fascinating dot is the contract, at least to a cap sheet nerd like myself. Hawkins was due a fully guaranteed $7.02 million this season, the fourth year of his rookie-scale deal. Assuming he clears waivers, Memphis remains responsible for that guaranteed money, subject to the NBA’s normal set-off rules if Hawkins signs another contract elsewhere.

In other words, the Warriors’ theoretical opportunity here isn’t to absorb a $7 million contract. The bargain-hunting scenario begins after Hawkins clears waivers and is free to choose another destination on a much cheaper contract.

That matters because this is exactly the type of asymmetric roster bet NBA front offices are constantly looking for: a player who had a $7 million market slot yesterday potentially becoming available for a minimum contract or, because Hawkins has only three years of NBA service, even a two-way deal.

Obviously, the Warriors wouldn’t be the only team thinking this way and there will be plenty of organizations that could use another young shooter, but roster and apron constraints narrow the field considerably. Denver, for example, is navigating its own expensive roster while carrying another intriguing shooting guard, Lonnie Walker IV, on a zero-guarantee training-camp deal.

That is where the question becomes more interesting than simply asking whether Golden State once liked Jordan Hawkins.

Why did a Lottery pick become available this quickly?

The easiest mistake would be to see “No. 14 pick” and “$7 million contract” and assume Hawkins must still be worth something close to that valuation simply because New Orleans once drafted him there. His NBA career has not justified that assumption.

Hawkins actually showed some encouraging signs as a rookie, averaging 7.8 points in 17.3 minutes while shooting 36.6 percent from three. His role grew substantially during his second season, when he averaged 10.8 points in 23.6 minutes, but his three-point percentage slipped to 33.1 percent and his overall efficiency remained poor. That season was also interrupted by a significant back problem that progressed from a low-back strain to a lumbar spine annular fissure and ultimately cost him substantial time.

By last season, Hawkins averaged only 5.1 points in 13.6 minutes and for long stretches he essentially fell out of New Orleans’ rotation. At one point the Pelicans were explicitly leaning toward bigger, more physical and more defensive lineups, which was not exactly the ideal environment for a slender shooting specialist still trying to prove he could do enough elsewhere when his shot wasn’t falling.

Still, there were flashes. Given minutes late in the season, Hawkins scored 25 points against Utah on April 7th and followed with 20 against Boston three nights later. This isn’t a player who suddenly forgot how to put the ball in the basket. Hawkins’ signature NBA skill hasn’t yet been consistent enough to offset the limitations elsewhere in his game.

New Orleans ultimately decided to move on. The Pelicans had been shopping Hawkins and when they finally dealt him to Memphis in September, shedding his $7 million salary helped create the flexibility necessary for their Bennedict Mathurin move.

Memphis then had its own extreme roster crunch. Hawkins was one of 18 standard-contract players fighting for 15 spots — hey, Quinten Post! 👋 — before agreeing to let him go without ever playing a regular season game for the Grizzlies, so there are legitimate reasons Hawkins is sitting here.

There are also legitimate reasons to wonder whether this is exactly the time to buy low.

Re-reading the old scouting reports

Hawkins entered the league with a very specific NBA skill. At UConn, he averaged 16.2 points while shooting 38.8 percent from three and 88.7 percent from the line for a national championship team — and you know how the Warriors tend to love former NCAA champions.

NBA.com described him as a prototypical two-guard whose calling cards were a quick release, relentless off-ball movement and impressive shooting mechanics.

He made nearly half of his spot-up threes as a sophomore, while more than 63 percent of his total field-goal attempts came from beyond the arc. Dan Hurley called Hawkins one of the most unique shooting prospects to enter the Draft in years because of his ability to shoot at full speed, not merely stand behind the arc waiting for kick-outs, while also arguing that Hawkins had untapped defensive potential because of his athleticism and length.

Other scouting reports such as from our friends at NBADraft.net emphasized essentially the same strengths: elite movement shooting, quick footwork, a fast release, off-ball intelligence and enough athleticism to attack a hard closeout.

The weaknesses were equally consistent: Hawkins needed more strength, his handle and playmaking were limited, his finishing could become shaky against size, and his defensive ceiling depended partly on whether his slender frame could hold up against NBA bodies.

Reading all of that again reminded me of another shooter the Warriors know very well: Buddy Hield.

I am not saying Hawkins is “Buddard” (Jimmy Butler voice!). Hield was older, stronger and substantially more proven as a shooter when he entered the league, but the scouting vocabulary is awfully familiar: elite shooting as the defining skill, movement without the basketball, a quick trigger, questions about creation and playmaking and uncertainty about how much defensive value the player could provide when the shooting wasn’t carrying the rest of the package.

Here’s Buddy hitting 23 out of 25 threes at the Chicago Bulls’ training camp yesterday:

So here’s the thought experiment: if the Warriors could have kept last season’s version of Buddy on a minimum contract or just hypothetically put a guy like him on a two-way (Hield is and was way past the three-year maximum, so that’s why I said “thought experiment”), would that player have been worth keeping around?

I think there is a pretty reasonable argument that the answer would have been yes. The Warriors still technically haven’t replaced Hield, who was traded along with Jonathan Kuminga to Atlanta in return for Kristaps Porzingis last February, at shooting guard. Podziemski and De’Anthony Melton are really playmaking combo guards. There is no traditional 2-guard on team, presently.

Plus, Hawkins is only 154 days older than Yaxel Lendeborg. Instead of paying for what he already is, Golden State would essentially be betting that a former Lottery pick with one elite projected skill can finally turn that skill into dependable NBA production.

The Warriors have increasingly tilted toward younger players they can develop rather than simply filling every available roster crevice with another veteran, and Hawkins fits that timeline much better today than Hield did after the Warriors originally brought Buddy in as an immediate replacement for some of the shooting they lost with Klay Thompson.

The BDub domino

This brings us to the actual Warriors roster. Before training camp began, Brandon Williams — whose Instagram handle is “thebwill2”, but recently on the Draymond Green Show podcast, Green referred to Williams as “BDub”, perhaps to avoid confusion with Will (Richard) — looked like one of the obvious names to watch because his one-year contract was non-guaranteed, even though he’s proven he belongs as an NBA player on more than one occasion for the Dallas Mavericks in 2025-26.

Four practices into Hawaii, I have a hard time imagining Golden State simply tossing Williams aside. Steve Kerr called Williams “the fastest guy we’ve ever had here” on Friday and immediately invoked Leandro Barbosa as the closest comparison, while also describing Williams as potentially a “defensive pest” (filmed by Luca Evans of the SF Chronicle):

Draymond has raved about BDub’s speed and craft around the basket and just about everybody watching the open portions of camp has noticed how different the Warriors look when Williams injects that kind of north-south pressure into their second unit: [check the Description for the Williams timestamp]

There is also a relationship component here that shouldn’t be ignored. Williams and Melton were teammates at Crespi Carmelite, winning back-to-back California state championships together in 2015 and 2016, and Melton was among the people advocating for Williams before Golden State signed him.

Now, as the above scrimmage footage revealed, they appear positioned to share minutes in a Warriors second unit whose backcourt identity could be built around Melton’s defense and Williams’ ability to get downhill.

That doesn’t make anyone literally untouchable at the bottom of an NBA roster, but cutting Williams now after this kind of camp — and after reuniting him with Melton — would be a much stranger outcome than it looked two weeks ago. More importantly, Hawkins and Williams wouldn’t necessarily be competing to do the same thing.

Williams’ value is his burst, rim pressure and ability to create paint touches. His three-point shooting remains one of the larger questions in his game:

Hawkins’ entire theoretical value proposition is almost the inverse: can he become such a dangerous movement shooter that the defense has to chase him around the floor, opening space for everybody else?

The Warriors could use both.

Another part of the equation changed

There is another training-camp development that makes this exercise more interesting: Graham Ike appears to be making an extremely favorable first impression.

Draymond didn’t merely compliment him this week. On his latest podcast, he told people to “buy your Graham Ike stock now,” praised his intelligence, vocal presence and passing from the high post, and went as far as envisioning Ike carving out a long NBA career:

That matters because Ike occupies one of Golden State’s three two-way slots, but it also potentially affects the standard roster indirectly. Georges Niang has looked good in camp himself and Kerr has already talked about using him as a small-ball 5, so none of this should be interpreted as me reporting that Niang is in trouble. He is also one of the league’s proven high-volume floor spacers, a career 40% three-point shooter whose skill fits what Golden State wants offensively.

But Niang is already guaranteed $1.8 million of his $3.9 million contract, will a fully guaranteed date of 1/10/2027, and Mike Dunleavy, Jr. has the Warriors operating at just $347,568 under the second apron hard cap. So replacing Niang seems all but impossible before January 10th.

With the positional need at point guard that long-range sniper LJ Cryer fills, Leons would seem to be the most obvious pressure point.

I happen to like Leons — I’m a sucker for long wings who can defend — and that would not be an insignificant decision. Leons, despite his length for point-of-attack defense and offensive rebounding, seems like a bit of a clunky fit in the new 5-out system.

So does Ike, but with Porzingis out indefinitely, Ike has become more important by default. And so, to me, Leons might end up drawing the shorter straw and that’s just how the cookie crumbles.

Hawkins is eligible for a two-way because NBA rules allow players with three or fewer years of service to sign them. If Hawkins has enough of a market to command a standard minimum contract instead, the Warriors would have to make a different choice.

Again, I could be completely wrong.

Another team may simply offer more to Hawkins than a two-way. Or the Warriors could have evaluated Hawkins three years ago, decided whatever they liked then has not translated, and have zero interest in revisiting him today.

All of those outcomes are entirely plausible and maybe there are other rabbit holes we could go down, but that is different from saying the idea itself doesn’t make sense.

Summer 2027 still intrigues me

The Warriors’ larger roster strategy makes this kind of bet even more appealing. Golden State has spent much of the past year creating flexibility for the summer of 2027 and one Wardell Stephen Curry II’s new extension only increased it. Depending on what happens with Porzingis, Podziemski, Butler, Green and various cap holds, the Warriors could have tens of millions in usable cap room next summer.

While recent projections have put their potential space roughly in the $38 million-to-$55 million range I deduced that the bottom line was that a max player slot ($61.6 million) is still available if Dunleavy really wants or needs it, even with Steph set to make $55.7 million next season.

There are decisions to be made on older or injured guys like Jimmy, Dray and KP, but unlike in the past, there may be now more optionality to keep a reclamation project like Hawkins.

As I’ve said anytime the summer 2027 cap sheet is mentioned, the market is trending towards older players not being able to secure even a Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level (NTMLE) salary, which is roughly around $16 million. The league is trending towards youth, so if Hawkins can play himself into an NTMLE-worthy rotation player — which would be astounding considering a player like Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes that amount — or even at the Bi-Annual Exception value of $9 to $10 million, or even half of an NTMLE (example: Anfernee Simons) that’s likely to be more than what a 35-year-old will be worth.

Kerr even alluded to this youth movement across the league and with the Dubs, speaking to Anthony Slater of ESPN yesterday at Day 4 of training camp in Hawaii and using the adjective “painful” to describe this overall roster transition:

If Hawkins comes here and doesn’t make it, you move on. If Hawkins looks like exactly the player New Orleans and Memphis just decided he wasn’t, you haven’t sacrificed much, but if something clicks — the shot stabilizes, the Warriors’ movement system plays to his strengths, the defensive coaching under Frank Vogel cleans up enough weaknesses to keep him on the floor, and Hawkins suddenly has one of those hockey-stick development curves we’ve watched Gui experience — then Golden State enters next summer with the financial flexibility in a rather depressed market (again, the loaded 2026 Draft has a lot to do with that) to deal with the happy problem it just created:

That is value creation and for a team trying to extend Curry’s window while simultaneously getting younger around him, those bets become more important, not less.

The Warriors don’t need Hawkins to become the player somebody dreamed about when he went No. 14 three years ago. They certainly don’t need him to become Game 6 Klay, one of the lofty names that appeared in his original NBA.com projection or even, let’s call him, “One-Game-7-Splash” Buddy.

They need to ask whether there is a path from what Hawkins is today to something more useful than what the final roster spot — or the final two-way spot — currently provides.

Can he shoot 38 or 39 percent from three instead of 34 or 35? Can anybody playing the 2 or 3 for the Warriors do that? Can Hawkins survive defensively? Can Steph and the Warriors’ screening and movement ecosystem weaponize Hawkins’ best skill more effectively than his previous teams did? Does the answer to those questions carry more upside than simply standing pat?

That is why I don’t think the Warriors’ roster is necessarily as locked as it looked 24 hours ago. I would actually be surprised if they made an about-face on any of their three current two-ways, especially with both Cryer and Leons signed last summer to two-year two-way deals. Golden State has made a not insignificant investment in each of them. Learning how to play with Steph and Dray does not happen overnight.

Still, coldly, maybe Cryer is now more expendable with the rise of Williams? I didn’t really go down that rabbit hole. But I hope that poking around with this bonafide 2-guard example helped bring to light some nuances of the Warriors roster that maybe got lost in the shuffle as our squad embarked on training camp in Hawaii.

For me, enjoying basketball up-close through the eyes of the beatwriters in attendance at BYU-Hawaii with the Warriors — particularly on our YouTube channel and our Discord “knowledge base”, if you haven’t checked those out yet — still proves:

Process >> Results

Glad you came along as we touched on various aspects of the roster through the lens of Hawkins.

And so I’ve merely been told they liked Jordan Hawkins once. I have not been told they like him now. Maybe by tomorrow we find out there is nothing here. I’m perfectly willing to live with that.

Connecting dots is not the same thing as reporting that the dots have already been connected by the team. I would much rather make that distinction clear than manufacture certainty just because it would produce a louder headline.

But when a former Lottery pick who has not yet reached his prime at age 24, whom your scouts previously liked, suddenly hits the market with $7 million already guaranteed elsewhere and the possibility that your acquisition cost could be a minimum contract or even a two-way slot, I think it is worth asking the question. That’s kind of how cap sheet nerds view the world, which is generally how the thirty GMs of the NBA and their staffs have to view the league in this era of the aprons.

If Golden State does decide Hawkins is worth another look, my read is it pretty much has to be on a two-way.

I could be wrong, but I would absolutely at least make the call to Hawkins’ agent and see where they are.

🫶💙💛

I went into Friday’s livestream planning to make an argument I’ve made in this space before: that one Wardell Stephen Curry II should probably wait to sign an extension, if the goal was to give Golden State the most flexibility possible entering the summer of 2027.

Then, somewhere in the middle of walking my co-host Dean Chambers through my mock cap sheet (about the 22:00 mark, updated timestamps can now be found in the Description of the embedded video below), and thanks to a live chat commenter, we were informed the news broke that Curry had actually signed — two years, $116 million, with a player option in Year 2, and a first-year salary around $55.7 million.

That means his second-year salary, if opted into, is the maximum 8% year-to-year raise per Bird Rights. The 1+1 strategy means Curry can opt-out and once again figure out a new number depending on the circumstances in Summer 2028 — yes, that’s still “optionality”!

And with the 35-year-old Kawhi Leonard recently inking a two-year, $115 million deal that also has a second-year player option, that means Steph’s contract is on par with another aging, active future Hall-of-Famer who is still earning market value — Toronto used 5% as Kawhi’s year-over-year raise, which means Steph will make less than him in 2027, but more than Kawhi in 2028, should both players opt-in. I have often said, NBA contracts tend to mimic trends in real estate comps and Series A investments in venture capital.

Oh, and did you notice? Steph’s total contract value is exactly $1 million more than Kawhi’s!

Start to love cap sheets, my friends. Just like you see in your neighborhood when it comes to real estate’s Multiple Listing Service aks “MLS” or Crunchbase for entrepreneurs seeking VC funding, every player’s contract in the NBA is linked to every other contract (Gary Trent, Jr. notwithstanding). It’s the web of life.

Curry’s 2027-28 cap figure is well above the roughly $40 million placeholder I’d built into the spreadsheet as a conservative stand-in — also ironically and perhaps not surprisingly, the difference is roughly the same value as what a Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception (NTMLE) free agent slot would be. 👀

So we did the only thing you can do in that situation: stopped talking about the hypothetical and started rebuilding the real thing on-air:

The slot didn’t disappear

My original spreadsheet was built around a specific question: could the Warriors still create a full 35% maximum salary slot for an entering free agent (or sign-and-trade, à la Walker Kessler) in the summer of 2027 — something in the neighborhood of $61.6 million against the NBA’s projected $176 million cap — while keeping some recognizable version of this roster intact?

Getting there required a stack of assumptions layered on top of Curry’s number: Brandin Podziemski’s salary slot around $20 million, Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green both around the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (NTMLE), and Kristaps Porzingis carried at just his $3 million guarantee rather than his full $20 million salary.

Swapping in Curry’s real number was the obvious stress test for all of that. My instinct, live on air, was that something else would have to give — Podziemski’s number, or Jimmy’s, or Draymond’s, or the Porzingis assumption. What Dean and I actually found, working through it in real time, was closer to the opposite: the max slot held. The margins got tighter and the remaining assumptions started carrying more weight, but the basic premise of the spreadsheet survived.

Where the pressure actually lands

If the slot survives, the more useful question becomes what has to be true for the rest of the sheet to work — and that’s where the conversation moved toward the market for older players generally, not just Butler and Green, specifically.

My placeholder numbers for both of them were built around the NTMLE (roughly $16-17 million), which I’d treated as a conservative, middle-of-the-road guess. Looking at where the league actually seems to be heading, I’m not sure it’s conservative enough.

The compression in what teams are willing to pay veterans past age 35 has gotten harder to ignore, and Dean and I brought up LeBron James as close to the extreme case, alongside DeMar DeRozan and Russell Westbrook — who obviously up and retired as the rebuilding Wizards were the only ones to offer him anything, and a vet min at that — players whose markets have thinned out well before their production fell off a cliff.

Some of that is about the era more than any one player: Oklahoma City has handed the league a working blueprint built around young, cost-controlled talent and real flexibility. San Antonio is building something similar around Victor Wembanyama and, with the benefit of three consecutive Top-5 picks (Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper after Wemby) — now no longer possible with the new anti-tanking rules — plus the 2026 Draft class described as “epic” by our very own annual livestream deep-dive guest, Eric Guilleminault of NBADraft.net, only made that approach look more attractive to more front offices.

As for the Knicks, it’s really hard to say that they have a blueprint and I’d be shocked if anyone in DubNation thinks a fully healthy Warriors roster can’t take a fully healthy Knicks roster to six or seven games, but the consensus by observers is the second apron is ultimately going to leave one of the Knicks’ guys off the team — after all, Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe are all now former OKC Thunder players, so not even the most revered GM in basketball, Sam Presti, could duck it — and I will write more about Karl-Anthony Towns as a quiet target for that Warriors max slot on that 2027 cap sheet, in due time.

With my mock now slashing the salaries of Jimmy and Draymond well below a NTMLE, that does not mean either of them stops being useful, particularly in a playoff series where experience and physicality tend to matter more, not less.

It means a market that is willing to pay for that usefulness may be smaller than it used to be and if it is, Golden State may end up negotiating from a stronger position in 2027 than my original mock assumed.

Two unresolved variables

Podziemski’s extension looks different to me now, too. Before Curry signed, I had Podz penciled in around $20 million, and Dean and I were prepared to role-play the actual negotiation on-air. Once the real Curry number was on the sheet, committing to that figure ahead of time felt a lot less appealing. Not because Podziemski isn’t worth it, but because he’s one of the few pieces left that Golden State doesn’t have to lock in immediately. Another season gives everyone more information. If he has a big year, his price goes up, and that’s a fine outcome, too.

Plus, restricted free agency has tended to give franchises more leverage, with players generally taking less money, although there are extraordinary exceptions dependent on if there’s a market for their services. Think Cleveland and Peyton Watson — nice little haul of $22 million average annual value (AAV) which the Podz camp can certainly boast as a comp — while also earning a starting spot on a contender in the Cavs.

Thankfully, the culture of Golden State probably won’t end up with a tense standoff as we are observing from afar with Jalen Duren and the Detroit Pistons. Somehow, there was nary a peep to how Porzingis accepted that second partially guaranteed year of $3 million — against $20 million fully guaranteed? Wow! 🤯 No ultimatum that KP reach this metric or that, as the Pistons have reportedly asked for weight benchmarks of Duren. Just a super-quiet no-nonsense figure of $20 million followed by only 15% of that being guaranteed next July 7th, 2027.

Not to mention, on the previous livestream I researched SpoTrac.com and found that Brandon Williams can be cut by Opening Night — that piece about the Graham Ike two-way contract and its implications (like, what does that say about KP?) is right around the corner, by the way. Plus now we know, Georges Niang and Charles Bassey can be waived by January 10th, 2027, as well, if the ship is sinking and some space needs to be cleared for a drastic makeover. Warriors brass has been hard at work with these safety valves.

Yes, those also fall under the label “optionality”. Sorry if that struck a nerve, Warriors Twitter.

But back to Podz and possibly becoming a restricted free agent (RFA), the likes of Jonathan Kuminga, Bennedict Mathurin, and Cam Thomas — the former two on contracts well below what Yossi Gozlan of Third Apron and his co-host Sam Quinn of CBS Sports have previously thought they were worth, and the latter actually currently contract-less — show us how restricted free agency might become a hot topic at the next CBA bargaining table between the NBPA and the league, as Gozlan and Quinn have often opined, recently.

In a cold business world, the chess move could be for the Warriors to just not extend Podz because a majority of the most recent RFAs have ended up with below-market contracts, thereby taking advantage of what I would call a “unintended quirk” of the current CBA and maybe getting him on a discount in the long-term — all of this sounds kind of silly as I write it, I must admit. Just pay the kid what he’s actually worth and let’s move on.

As I mocked in the 2027 cap sheet, I think he is worth and would be okay visually with the figure $20 million AAV, especially if a starting two-way 6’7” starting wing like Watson on a contending team like Cleveland is making $22 million (AAV). Incidentally, cap sheet aficionados who keep a pulse on market values have expressed to me recently that Podziemski probably shouldn’t get more than the NTMLE. Again, I think there is something psychological about that $20 million line (I mean, a “2” in tens unit is certainly more attractive than a “1”).

Similar to BP, the 6’4” Ayo Dosunmu comes off the bench for Minnesota, so he is perhaps an even better comp for Podz and will be paid $86.5 million in the first four years of his five-year contract, while Watson will be paid $88 million over four years.

I do think, thanks to Gozlan and Quinn’s podcasts, that Christian Braun’s $25M AAV contract is now considered a bad and outdated contract. Whether BP’s final number comes out to $20, 21, or 22 million AAV for Podz, I don’t think a couple million is going to put the 2027 cap sheet in jeopardy. After all, back in the day, the Warriors found a taker for Andrew Bogut, and let Harrison Barnes and Festus Ezeli walk in order to welcome Kevin Durant onto the books.

And as an NBA insider told me yesterday, Podz “had a great year” and “has a great agent”, so it remains to be seen. The legendary Bill Duffy is BP’s agent, by the way.

“It will definitely be interesting,” my league source said of the impending Podziemski extension, which has a deadline of October 19th to get done, otherwise he becomes a RFA next summer.

Ergo, Porzingis remains the strangest and probably the most consequential, line on the spreadsheet. The $3 million figure isn’t a projection of his value. It’s the guaranteed portion of his 2027-28 salary if the Warriors move on.

If he stays healthy and looks like a $20-million two-way player, that’s the best-case basketball outcome, but it also means finding another $17 million somewhere else on the sheet — whoa, there’s that NTMLE number again! — skipping that mid-level benchmark, letting a veteran walk, adjusting Podziemski’s number if he hasn’t been extended already, or reconsidering the max pursuit altogether. Those aren’t bad problems to have, but they’re real ones.

What still has to happen

Curry had said, at the Eat.Learn.Play event a couple of days before the livestream, that he wanted to give the front office room to make moves rather than pushing for every dollar available to him — and then he signed for less than the max:

I’d argued he should wait longer, and he didn’t, which I’m comfortable admitting on the record here. It’s possible his side had already run something close to the same math Dean and I were doing live: enough to compensate the best player in franchise history fairly, while leaving Mike Dunleavy, Jr., Joe Lacob, Kirk Lacob and the front office room to reshape the roster around him.

None of what follows is a prediction. Whether the veteran market keeps compressing, whether Podziemski’s number moves up or down, whether Porzingis stays healthy, and whether Golden State is good enough this season for any of it to matter — all of that gets decided somewhere other than a spreadsheet.

But the specific thing we set out to test Friday night, whether Curry’s real contract would eliminate the Warriors’ ability to create a max slot in 2027, held up. That’s the part of the exercise I’d stand behind.

One thing for paid subscribers: both cap sheets referenced in this piece — my original mock with Steph at $40 million, and the version Dean and I rebuilt live once the real $55.7 million number hit — are attached, beyond the paywall below, plus a bonus of a working Google spreadsheet.

Adjust any of the assumptions yourself: Podziemski’s number, Jimmy and Draymond’s contracts, what happens if Porzingis plays his full $20 million deal, the NTMLE slot for a free agent there. One thing we didn’t do, as explained in the live, is mock up a cap sheet that goes up to the second apron — as we’re not sure if a cap space team has ever done that before. Certainly getting to the first apron is realistic and has a real-world comparable this off-season: the LA Lakers. I’ll look into the machinations of their signings and report back later on that. Credit to Gozlan for the heavy lifting on that Lakers dissection.

All in all, it shouldn’t be too hard to shed needed salary if you want to surround that max player with another free agent, especially at that NTMLE level. Scrambling to create necessary space has been executed by GSW before with, as I mentioned, KD, but also Andre Iguodala when he joined as a free agent, too.

There are two excellent behind-the-stories from Tim Kawakami (around the 2022 Finals) and Anthony Slater (back in 2019) for The Athletic, which inexplicably makes it hard to find links to their paywalled articles — so you’ll have to go hunt for those yourselves, possibly sifting through their bylines.

In any case, those stories described Bob Myers and Dunleavy holed up in a hotel suite, working the phones to make all the maneuvers that ultimately turned the KD slot into D’Angelo Russell and then into Andrew Wiggins.

I think it’s fair to say, next summer is gonna be a fun ride. There is no doubt in my mind. And I have been saying this since June.

My Lakers buddy Mark even told me that their roster makeover around Luka Doncic this past July “felt great, like clothes shopping for a new school year.”

And we haven’t even had our first practice of this season which gets to happen before we even hit the summer shopping spree!

But I know how the brain can click into survival mode and certain segments of Dub Nation might automatically default to the worst-case scenario of Steph being sidelined due to the knee and other old or injured guys having to hold the fort, thereby leading to a sub-.500 campaign again. Suddenly the best-case scenario is a Play-in berth where our old guys will surely underperform if they even make it to the second Play-in games a nary 48 hours after the first one.

Well, I encourage you to finally recognize what’s happening around you — the word “doomscrolling” has reportedly been around since 2018 — and choose love instead of fear. Dean and I have said on every off-season livestream that Western Conference playoff seeds 3 through 6 are up for grabs if all players on all teams are healthy.

If you enjoyed these high vibes

“Wut?” you ask. “But Warriors Twitter told me MDJ is a bum and Joe is a terrible owner?!”

Well, I’m glad you found LetsGoWarriors.

This is only the beginning of us — and by “us” I mean myself, Dean, even fellow live chatters like Bruce the Haitian, Amy in Hong Kong, Shivansh in India, Nicky in Miami. We all help you feel better about your team, not worse, all in real-time on our Watch Parties on YouTube.

Stay tuned for more incremental improvements to the LGW ecosystem!

Oh, and join our Discord “Knowledge Base” for free. It’s the first place LGW people check for the latest and greatest on our Dubs.

Soooo much new content, even today, on there. It’s like a library that re-aggregates aggregators, while also actually pointing to the source material, too — all real-time for the VIPs and paid subscribers to this Substack; just email me if you are a paid subscriber and want access to the real-time VIP feeds on our Discord server.

Time to ditch that Elon app. Emotions kill logic!

As Dean put it, LetsGoWarriors is a “school of thought.”

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Jimmy/Dray at NTMLE, Steph at $40M:

Note: The 8th pick of the 2027 NBA Draft has been included by Gozlan on CapSheets.com. What the actual pick will be is obviously unpredictable, but nevertheless should be included on any future cap sheet, especially when first-round draft pick salaries are not insignificant.

Jimmy/Dray at minimum, Steph $55.7M:

Note: We made Podz his RFA cap hold figure of $17 million in this scenario, just to get under the luxury tax line, although at the end of the day, to sign a NTMLE free agent, you’d need to end up below the First Apron. Bottom line: there’s plenty of wiggle room with the assumptions being made for older or otherwise-prone-to-injury players like Jimmy, Dray and KP.

The actual spreadsheet for the nerds:

Google Sheets link (viewer access only)

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One Wardell Steph Curry II was technically at USF to talk about history.

On Aug. 30, he returned to USF’s Silk Speaker Series for a screening and panel on The Baddest Speechwriter of All, the documentary he co-directed with Ben Proudfoot about Clarence B. Jones, MLK’s longtime speechwriter and adviser. The film won the Short Film Grand Jury Prize at Sundance this year.

The panel covered storytelling, civil rights and social justice. But the moment that’s stayed with me was smaller. Someone asked Curry, essentially, what advice he’d give about becoming successful. He said:

Not to be too good at giving advice, the idea of, ‘If you want to be successful,’ your life needs to look different than the person to the left or to right of you. And figuring out what that is for you is a big deal.

For me, one of the life principles, though, is I try to genuinely have a sense of gratitude and joy every single day. There’s something — no matter what’s going on in your life — you can always find something that you’re grateful for, something that you’ve been blessed with, and that’ll keep you going as the highs and lows in life come at you.

So find a sense of gratitude and find an element of joy in everything that you do and that’ll carry you through life’s toughest and greatest moments, for sure.

The room applauded when he finished.

I paired that clip with something Steph said about a week and a half later, at Li-Ning’s headquarters in China, while he was being measured for sports apparel on some genuinely high-tech devices. Talking about the work Li-Ning’s people had put into this new chapter of Curry Brand, he said it brought him to tears of joy.

Different country, different setting, same idea. Saying something like that once is easy. Saying it again, in a completely different context, starts to look less like a talking point and more like something he actually practices.

I’ll get further into that Li-Ning trip soon — Steph did a longer Q&A recently about what this new relationship means to him, and there’s more worth unpacking there.

For now, I want to sit with the USF version a little longer. There’s something nice about a room full of college students applauding a guy for saying, essentially, find something to be grateful for every day. It’s a simple idea, and it’s one I try to carry into how we do the watch parties of the Warriors every season over on YouTube — not instead of digging into the roster or the cap sheet, we’ll still do plenty of that here, but alongside it.

There’s a version of this era, right now, with Steph still out there, that we’re going to miss one day. Might as well enjoy it while it’s here.

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Let me get the important distinction out of the way first. I am not predicting that one Wardell Stephen Curry II will decline a contract extension from the Golden State Warriors or that the franchise does not want to pay him what he’s worth.

Steph has publicly indicated he wants to pursue another extension, “for sure”. Mike Dunleavy, Jr. reiterated last month on the podium that Curry wants to finish his career as a Warrior [see entire 30-minute interview here and with full transcript in the Comments] and most NBA players presented with another massive amount of guaranteed money take it, as soon as the opportunity presents itself.

What I’m arguing is something different: Steph shouldn’t sign yet, not because he should leave, not because the Warriors shouldn’t pay him, not because Curry necessarily owes Joe Lacob a discount after everything he has done for this franchise.

August 29th is the first day he can sign an extension. It doesn’t have to be the day he should. There is one enormous variable that neither Steph nor the Warriors can fully understand on 8/29: his runner’s knee.

Trust can buy you optionality

The conventional logic here is pretty straightforward. Curry is entering the final season of his contract. He’s 38. Golden State wants him to retire a Warrior. Steph wants the same thing.

At the presser, Dunleavy was asked whether anything had changed: “Not to me, no, he hasn’t. That’s always been the message… I’m pretty confident Steph will finish his career here.”

Later, Nick Friedell of The Athletic asked Dunleavy about August 29th and whether he was confident something could ultimately get worked out.

“There’s two things I’m confident about with Steph,” Dunleavy said. “He really, really wants to win and he wants to finish his career as a Warrior.”

That is precisely why I don’t think anybody needs to rush. Normally, an unsigned extension creates uncertainty. With No. 30 and the Warriors, the extraordinary level of trust could actually turn that uncertainty into an asset.

If Steph doesn’t sign on August 29, that doesn’t mean he wants to leave. It doesn’t mean Lacob doesn’t want to pay him. It means they preserve optionality — a term first uttered by former Warriors general manager Bob Myers many years ago and now has become part of lexicon for all thirty NBA GMs (as well as a bad word on Warriors Twitter, apparently) — while acquiring something neither side can manufacture today: More information.

“This thing’s delicate”

There was another Dunleavy answer from that same Zoom call that matters even more. Joseph Dycus of the Bay Area News Group asked about Curry’s knee and how much the Warriors expect him to play this season after Steph appeared in only 43 games last year.

“With the knee, other injuries and then his age, it’s definitely something we have to manage,” Dunleavy said.

Then came that word Taylor Swift made into an auto-chime in the brain:

“My hope would be he plays more than… 43 games last year. I hope he plays more than that this year,” Dunleavy said. “We expect that, but you take nothing for granted, so it’s on the radar. It’s something we have to be mindful of and this thing’s delicate.”

That doesn’t mean Curry’s knee is doomed or that he has some catastrophic structural condition. It certainly doesn’t mean those of us outside the Warriors medical staff should diagnose him, but it does mean that we don’t know.

Which brings me to a conversation we happened to have recently with UCSF orthopedic surgeon Dr. Nirav Pandya.

The number of minutes may not be the real question

If Golden State is effectively trying to keep its powder dry for greater roster flexibility later, can the Warriors afford something resembling a “gap year” when Curry is already 38?

Pandya’s answer changed the way I look at this.

“I worry about the load more than the minutes and what he’s doing during those 32, 33 minutes,” Pandya said.

You see that distinction? Load management gets discussed like arithmetic: 32 minutes becomes 30, 30 becomes 28, sit Steph on the second night of some back-to-backs and we’re good, right?

Maybe, but 28 minutes of Steph Curry aren’t necessarily the same thing as 28 minutes from another NBA player. What makes Steph special is movement, running, cutting, relocating, creating separation, getting bumped and grabbed away from the ball:

And when everything else breaks down, how many Warriors possessions still ultimately become, like, “Steph, save us!”

Dr. Pandya explained that runner’s knee itself can be a broad term. If Curry is dealing primarily with irritated muscles or tendons, reducing his minutes and workload could be exactly what he needs, but Pandya also raised the other possibility.

“Where is it coming from?” he said. “Is it some cartilage irritation, right? And then you’re worried about, ‘Okay, well, if that’s the case then could that get worse over the year?’ Absolutely. Is it just more muscle, tendon stuff, then maybe less concern…”

Again, Pandya was not diagnosing Curry with cartilage damage. He’s explaining why the underlying cause matters. And then he said something that should get everybody’s attention when we’re simultaneously discussing a new multi-year contract:

“What makes his game so special is his movement and you’re trying to limit that? And then you don’t have many other offensive weapons? Yeah, I absolutely do get worried about, does this year mean he’s just going to be degenerating a little bit more?”

That’s the unknown.

So why choose the number now?

Imagine two very different versions of the upcoming season. In the first, Curry’s knee continues giving him problems. Maybe he misses another large chunk of games, or his workload has to be dramatically reduced, or Golden State discovers that the physical demands required for Steph to remain Steph are becoming increasingly difficult to sustain.

Now we’ve learned something. And instead of having already committed enormous future salary to Curry, perhaps next summer Steph and the Warriors can look at the entire situation together and hit what I’ve been calling a “soft reset.”

Steph could take less à la Jalen Brunson or Victor Wembanyama and the Warriors could gain additional flexibility. That cap space could be redirected toward putting a deeper, younger and more sustainable roster around him — pretty much what the LA Lakers were able to do this off-season around Luka Doncic, although it can be argued that the pieces they signed could’ve been better (oh well, that’s their problem), but the bottom line remains: they went on a free agent shopping spree.

That isn’t Steph sacrificing for Lacob’s bank account. That’s Steph investing in Ring No. 5.

Now imagine the opposite: Steph’s knee responds beautifully. The swelling and pain are gone, the Warriors figure out the right workload, Curry plays significantly more than 43 games and demonstrates that he can still withstand the demands of being the center of an NBA offense.

Great! Now you have different information. If Steph wants a huge salary at that point, choose the number accordingly. Dunleavy has essentially made clear that Curry has earned tremendous agency over how the end of this story unfolds.

And even in that healthier scenario, Steph and the Warriors could still explore whether there is some strategic middle ground — the general concept we’ve seen elsewhere when stars structure their compensation with roster-building in mind.

The point isn’t that Curry must take a discount. The point is, why decide how much Curry should make in the future before you know what future Curry looks like?

Maybe preserving Steph means changing Steph

My live discussion with Dr. Pandya led us to uncharted territory. For years, people have wondered how Curry’s game might age. Could there eventually be a little Ray Allen or Kyle Korver in the evolution — not literally turning the greatest shooter ever into somebody standing in the corner, but reducing how often Steph has to manufacture all that movement and separation himself?

“Maybe this runner’s knee kind of speeds up the process in which the Warriors offense changes,” Pandya said.

That’s fascinating. What does Steph at 39 look like? Does he run the same mileage? Does he create as many shots himself? Can someone like Brandin Podziemski or De’Anthony Melton take another step as a creator? My hope was for Brandon Williams to be part of this equation and sure enough, it happened.

Can Jimmy Butler shoulder more offense once healthy? Can Yaxel Lendeborg eventually absorb some responsibility? Or does the player who reduces Curry’s workload not even exist on this roster yet?

Maybe preserving Steph Curry eventually means changing the ecosystem that made Steph Curry possible. That is another thing the Warriors can spend this season learning.

The argument against me is pretty obvious

There is an entirely reasonable response to everything I just wrote: You’re overthinking this; Steph deserves everything, so take the guaranteed money and make sure it’s the max.

I mean, that’s fair. Curry is 38 years old and guaranteed money is guaranteed money. If the Warriors offer him another massive extension, there is an obvious reason to sign it. The financial return on ensuring Steph is a Warrior for two more years is probably immeasurable. And again, Curry himself has already publicly indicated an interest in pursuing an extension.

So this is not my prediction that Steph will walk into Dunleavy’s office on August 29th and say, “Nah, I’m good.” He very well may sign. I simply don’t think he needs to, because Curry possesses something most NBA players approaching free agency don’t: an extraordinary amount of institutional trust.

If Steph doesn’t sign now, then gets hurt, do we really believe the Golden State Warriors are suddenly going to tell the greatest player in franchise history to take a hike?

Incidentally, Lacob didn’t do that to Klay Thompson.

Conversely, does anybody believe Steph needs two additional guaranteed years on paper to prove that he wants to retire a Warrior?

Dunleavy himself said those two things he knows about Curry — wanting to win and wanting to finish here — aren’t going to change on 8/29, Opening Night, the middle of the season or the end of next season. If that’s true, what’s the rush?

Play first. Decide second.

See what the knee does, what the workload does, what the roster does, what Curry looks like at 38, what the Warriors look like when he isn’t playing, whether Golden State needs to change the offense to preserve him — or whether it’s time to hit the hard rest button at the trade deadline, if the Dubs are, like, ten games under .500 or something.

I still think sitting down next summer with a clean cap sheet, with far more information than anybody possesses today is best for the quest for a fifth championship.

After all, if trouble brews in Denver after sending out Peyton Watson to get under the second apron, Nikola Jokic has the excuse he needs to leave the Nuggets. Or if Karl-Anthony Towns isn’t offered an extension from the Knicks for as much as he thinks he deserves, you never know. The leaner Curry can help keep that cap sheet, the better chance of netting a big fish should it start to swim away from the incumbent.

I’ve started to discuss this on the YouTube channel and we’ll look into the projected numbers more and more for the Summer 2027 Warriors cap sheet:

If Steph is still Steph, compensate him accordingly while collectively deciding how much flexibility they want to preserve around him. Either outcome is better informed than making the decision today.

And, friendly reminder, this has been a collaboration between Steph, Draymond Green, Lacob and Dunleavy. The fact that Draymond opted out just to enable the franchise to pursue LeBron James — and then restoring the contract back to its original form when that pursuit came up empty — is the clearest sign of that.

I believe another clear sign of that is when Dunleavy snapped back at reporters after this past February’ s deadline when asked if Green was part of any trade discussions.

As far as the public perception of Steph not signing an extension, I believe that in recent years, the team’s brain trust has always operated at the cost of being judged as incompetent. Friedell even wrote today in The Athletic that the scrutiny will come raining down heavy should Curry not sign an extension until later.

But we saw this happen all summer, anyways. Kirk Lacob even labeled a lot of the hearsay as “garbage”. It is not the style of the Warriors’ brass to come out and defend every move or non-move they make. So if Curry does not sign an extension, he will address it once and they will move on, knowing there is little they can do about the inevitable “garbage” that will arise as discourse from Steph’s decision.

But logically, it behooves him and anyone seeking a fifth GSW banner during his tenure to wait until more information comes in, likely at the very least the February 2027 trade deadline.

This isn’t ultimately about saving Lacob money. It isn’t about asking Curry to give back something he has earned. It’s about aligning Steph’s money, Steph’s body and the Warriors’ roster in whatever combination gives 30 the best chance to do the one thing Dunleavy says he still “really, really” wants to do: win.

Reload that roster. One last time. One last parade. Ring No. 5.

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R.I.P. Don Nelson aka “Nellie”. Blessed to have been there to film his last press conference with the Golden State Warriors, when PR man Raymond Ridder brought various Dubs luminaries back to Oracle Arena for the team’s last season there.

It was February 21, 2019, and Nellie, Stephen Jackson aka “Stak” and Jason Richardson aka “J-Rich” came back to reminisce on the 2007 We Believe team. J-Rich said he was going back to get his college degree and Stak was just getting ​⁠All The Smoke podcast off the ground with Matt Barnes.

S/O to my friend and colleague Felicia Purcell of Sports In The Bay‬​⁠ who prompted Nellie to give that epic answer: “Yeah, I’ve been smoking some pot.” 😂

Here are some highlights in a 90-second YouTube Short:

Full nine-minute presser. I’ve placed the entire transcript behind the paywall way below 👇

We’ve got a ton more content on our Nellie/WeBelieve playlist you should check out, too!

And a bevy of Nellie tributes from former players, teammates, and friends — too many to copy and paste here, I literally tried! — on our free-to-join Discord Knowledge Base, under the “Former Dubs” section [hyperlink only works if you are a registered member (free) of our Discord.]

A graphic my old Golden State of Mind (aka GSoM) colleague Tony “TonyPSD” Robles made back in 2007:

Tim Hardaway, Sr. said on 95.7 The Game this morning (video is on our Discord) that Nellie made the game fun. Thank you, Nellie, for that super-fun Run TMC ride. I’ll never forget my dad getting us mini-plan tickets and witnessing Mitch Richmond rack up 47 points, all on only two-pointers and free throws against Sacramento.

FULL TRANSCRIPT OF NELLIE, STAK, AND J-RICH 👇

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00:00 RAYMOND RIDDER, WARRIORS PR: All right, you got any questions, please raise your hand. We’ll bring in a microphone and get this started.

00:08 ANTHONY SLATER, THE ATHLETIC: All right.

00:12 RIDDER: All right, Anthony Slater, far side, right-hand side.

00:18 SLATER: What are you guys’ most vivid memories of that Mavericks series?

00:22 STEPHEN “STAK” JACKSON: Winning. I mean, making history. We had the blueprint from Coach to do everything we need to do and just executing and just being able to make history on a lot of people didn’t expect us to even make the playoffs. To make it and to win the first round was special. Just winning was special.

00:40 VERN GLENN, KPIX: J-Rich, this is for you. I mean, I’m looking at you guys. I believe it’s been 12 years? Holy smoke.

00:45 DON NELSON AKA “NELLIE”: I believe it.

00:45 JASON “J-RICH” RICHARDSON: And my knees believe it, too. Yeah the time, it definitely flies. Time never waits for no man. But it’s incredible always, seeing guys. I haven’t seen Coach in so long, man. It’s so good to see him. Every time we get together, it’s just a special moment.

01:15 LOGAN MURDOCK, NBC SPORTS BAY AREA: You guys, obviously, know this is the last year in Oakland and you guys have pretty much a special relationship with this city. What does it mean for you guys to see it’s the last year here and how was that with the new team? How was that connection between you guys and this city?

01:29 STAK: Well, I mean, just this is a hardworking city. This is a city that overcomes a lot of adversity, a lot of ups and downs. A lot of people here struggle and fight to make it and to make it from out of poverty and to have a better life, so our whole attitude, we had a team full of journey men. We had a team full of guys that were trying to prove myself. I think me, personally, for Coach to bring me here and to make me a captain of this team, I remember. I hold on to one of the best compliments I’ve ever got from a coach. Not only a coach, but winningest coach. Coach said that he wished he had five Stephen Jacksons on the court at one time, so not only being in the way this city embraced me, but this coach embraced me after everything I’ve been through in my career, to make me feel like a leader, make me feel like I belong in this league. All that came into play when I got here, so the city, the coach, everything, the teammates, the brotherhood, everything was a vital part of my career and the city meant a lot to me.

02:21 MURDOCK: How does it feel that it’s the last year for you?

02:25 STAK: It just feel good to come back and be a part of the last year. Like I always just tell, I’ve been on a lot of teams. I won a championship on other teams, but it’s the only organization that make me feel like family, so being able to come back and be a part of this last year in this arena, it means a lot. It means a lot to me.

02:41 MARK MEDINA, BAY AREA NEWS GROUP (SJ MERCURY): Steve Kerr was crediting you a lot for pioneering the age of small ball and fast pace, three-point shooting. How did those philosophies come about? Why were those important to you?

02:52 NELLIE: It came about because I never had a good big man. When I finally got one, he had about one leg left. That was Bob McAdoo. I only got him for a few years, but it’s easier to get smaller players and sometimes you just have it exist that way. The Warriors are playing it now the way I’ve always wanted to play and a lot of my teams played that way. When I had good big men, which wasn’t often, but then I slowed down a little bit. But when you don’t have them, well, you gotta go. And the Warriors, I love the way they play and I wish I could coach then as good as Steve does.

03:32 VERN: Yeah, touching off of that question, Nellie, yeah, again, I mean, he was saying, Steve Kerr was saying that all the teams doing everything now offensively, the small ball, the [inaudible, it all came from you. You were doing it, like, 40 years ago. And did you take it upon yourself maybe as a personal challenge? Yeah, I know you joke you didn’t have a big man, but kind of a personal challenge that you’re gonna, like a chess match, like, you’re gonna outdo the other guy by coming at you this way, coming small.

03:58 NELLIE: Well, as I was preparing for games, I’d always try to put myself in the other coach’s seat and see what would make it tough for him. And a lot of times he had to match up with me. I didn’t have to match up with him. If he had a big guy, sometimes I’d put a small forward on him. If he could guard him for short periods of time, we could double-team him, but he had to guard that small forward. He couldn’t do that either with those big guys, so, but it was kind of a plus and minus situation. And it worked for us a lot of the time.

04:27 VERN: What was the play with the whiskey? What was it called? Was it one-up? What was that? What was the play that he would —

04:32 NELLIE: We had a play called one-up.

04:33 VERN: Yeah, explain. Explain the one-up.

04:35 STAK: One-up? I can tell you because I remember it. A lot of points off that. Most of the time the we’d be — I sit on the box and the big is on the elbow. Point guard has the ball. The big come down, sets a screen on me. I come to the elbow, catch the ball, point guard cut off. I got an iso or I can go for a pick-and-roll with the point guard at the corner.

04:54 NELLIE: There weren’t a whole lot of passing after he got it.

04:58 STAK: I knew it was my play. One thing he can tell you, you better shoot when Coach call your play.

05:04 J-RICH: Yup.

05:04 STAK: You might not get it back.

05:07 BONTA HILL, 95.7 THE GAME: What do you guys make of athletes in today’s game? You know, people like Anthony Davis or Kyrie who essentially hold franchises kind of hostage by demanding their way out or saying they want to get traded to this, that. Jack and J-Rich, maybe you guys could speak to that and what today’s superstars basically are doing to their franchises.

05:24 STAK: Well, I mean, I love the fact that players have control of where they want to play, but at the same time, guys got to be professional, too. I would be the first to say these guys these days are — they’re spoiled. A lot of them are spoiled. And I was talking to one of the best, one of the Hall of Fame football coach and he said one thing he see about basketball from the outside looking in. More players today are interested in what the game can do for them. They don’t actually love the game like we did. I’m 41 years old and I still play the game every day, so — and I can see that the love of the game is not there, but I’m happy that we had a hand in for these kids to be able to get the money they’re making and the way the game is going. I’m happy that, but at the same time they gotta be professional and continue to show fans that they love the game, too, because they can. It can get away from that.

06:10 NELLIE: I’m 78 and I don’t play anymore. I will say that when I did play, which was for a long time, I think I played, like, 14 years, and you couldn’t leave a team. I mean, you were there for life.

06:26 STAK: Mm-hmm.

06:27 NELLIE: And as long as they wanted to put you on their roster, you’d have — you had nothing to do with a lot of the things that are important to players today, which is movement, money, and salaries. And so it’s way better now than it used to be, because I was in those locker rooms in the old days where you could — once you were with a team, you couldn’t leave.

06:47 FELICIA PURCELL, SPORTS IN THE BAY: Well, it’s good to see all three of you and you look really great.

06:50 STAK: Thank you.

06:50 FELICIA: I’m over here, Coach.

06:52 NELLIE: Oh, okay.

06:54 FELICIA: Can each of you talk briefly about what you’ve been doing after basketball? Coach, I know you live in Hawaii, right? So —

07:02 NELLIE: Yeah, I’ve been smoking some pot, but I never smoked when I played or coached, so I just — it’s new to me. But anyway, I’m doing that and I’m having a pretty good time. It’s more legal now than it’s ever been and so I’m enjoying that. And I personally have evolved with — in the rental business. We have a lot of — I invested my fortune in Maui and so we rent out our structures that we built and bought over the years and we make a good living.

07:34 RIDDER: And that website is?

07:35 NELLIE: Nellie’s On Maui.

07:38 STAK: Nellie’s On Maui.

07:41 FELICIA: J-Rich, what about you?

07:43 J-RICH: I’m currently playing a lot of golf. I get my golf game right. Finishing a promise to my mother, I’m back in school right now, finishing my degree in sports business and spending time with my three kids.

07:55 FELICIA: And Jack?

07:56 STAK: Me, I have a couple things going on. I’‘m involved with the cannabis line as well, with Al Harrington, called Viola. I also do sports analyst. I’m signed — I’m on with Fox and ESPN, as well. I also play in the Big3 League, Ice Cube basketball league I still play in. And I’ve shot my first movie last year, so I’m getting into movies as well.

08:17 FELICIA: So Jack, when can we expect the podcast with Matt?

08:20 STAK: Oh, yeah, me and Matt have a podcast called All The Smoke. It’ll be out next month. Thank you.

08:26 NELLIE (TO J-RICH): I’m glad you’re returning to college to get your degree.

08:30 J-RICH: Thank you.

08:30 NELLIE: You know I graduated at 71 years old? I went back —

08:32 STAK: Wow.

08:32 NELLIE: I went back when I was 71, after they fired me here. [Inaudible I went back to college and got my degree. I’m happy I did.

08:43 STAK: That’s impressive.

08:43 J-RICH, SHAKING NELLIE’S HAND: Thank you.

08:43 STAK: That’s impressive.

08:44 RIDDER: All right? All right, let’s do a quick — if you guys wanna stand, let’s do a quick photo up here. I’ll get all these chairs out of here and get this —

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Here’s the number I couldn’t stop thinking about after this week’s livestream with Dean “of Positivity” Chambers:

Once you start from that reality, almost every offseason rumor looks different.

When Draymond Green re-signed at essentially his original salary, it looked like a quiet piece of business. The reaction across social media was almost the opposite. Many fans immediately concluded the Warriors had “run it back,” that Joe Lacob — and, oddly, not so much Mike Dunleavy, Jr. — had failed one Wardell Stephen Curry II, and effectively conceded the season.

After spending another livestream going through the salary cap with Dean, I actually came away with a different conclusion because the cap sheet tells a more interesting story than the transaction wire.

Want to see every spreadsheet iteration?

The embedded video above is the distilled conclusion. If you’d like to follow every cap-sheet calculation and alternate path Dean Chambers and I explored live, here’s the full archived livestream (with chapters/timestamps so you can skip around to various topics):

Earlier this week, it appeared there might still be a path toward using the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception on DeMar DeRozan, as the plan all along had been to grant LeBron James that $15 million slot.

That possibility depended on several things happening one after the other Green would have needed to opt out and re-sign at a significantly lower first-year salary. But with James choosing to join Philadelphia on a much lower available contract at his veteran’s minimum of roughly $4 million, the NTMLE the Warriors freed up as a result of Draymond’s generosity could instead be offered to DeRozan. We originally discussed that here:

The Warriors would have needed to prioritize immediate improvement over maintaining future flexibility. Once Dray re-signed at his previous figure, most of those branches disappeared.

The “Decision Tree” became much simpler. One point Dean and I kept coming back to was Moses Moody.

Trading Moody to create room for an aging veteran sounds attractive on paper, particularly after another disappointing postseason and, well, the fact that Moody is injured at least for another few months.

But Moody isn’t simply a rotation player. He’s also one of the Warriors’ few meaningful salary slots that projects to still have value heading into Summer 2027. That’s a very different conversation than simply asking whether DeRozan is better than Moody today.

The Warriors’ roster also presents another challenge that doesn’t receive enough attention. Roughly 85 percent of their committed salary is tied up in players who are either:

• veterans,

• recovering from injuries,

• or both.

That’s a difficult roster to trade from. It’s easy to say the front office should “make a move.” It’s much harder to identify the team that actually wants to absorb those contracts without demanding significant assets in return.

Viewed through that lens, standing pat starts looking less like passivity and more like realism. That doesn’t mean the offseason is over. There is still room for veteran minimum additions.

Gary Payton II, whose re-signing was just announced, always was a logical possibility due to his willingness to play for a veteran’s minimum and his stellar and durable 2025-26 campaign in which he played in 73 games.

Brandon Williams continues to intrigue me because of what he could add as a downhill scoring guard. We discussed him at length here:

As of this writing, I do not have any additional intel to figure out why Williams has not been signed yet. He could very well have an offer from another team in which there are other things they need to wait on. Perhaps it has something to do with the limbo status that Peyton Watson, Jonathan Kuminga and Bennedict Mathurin find themselves in, as those are all players expected to get salaries in that NTMLE range, whereas Williams is probably looking at between veteran’s minimum and Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception (roughly $6 million) offers.

But the blockbuster paths that existed several weeks ago have largely closed, namely LeBron.

What makes this interesting is that the Warriors’ long game may now be more important than the next few weeks. Rather than forcing a move simply to satisfy the offseason conversation, they may be positioning themselves for greater flexibility later.

That includes the February trade deadline and, perhaps even more importantly, Summer 2027. Those will be the next branches of the Decision Tree.

What do you think?

Would you have sacrificed future flexibility to chase DeRozan? Or do you think preserving the cap sheet gives Curry a better chance to compete over the next two seasons?

The spreadsheet behind today’s analysis started as a live Decision Tree session with Dean Chambers. As the offseason continues, I’m also experimenting with shorter written analyses here on Substack, while using our Discord “Knowledge Base” to collect the daily developments that eventually become these articles and videos. Thanks for reading and for following along.

There was a brief moment Sunday morning when it felt like the tournament might get interesting again.

As I walked toward the seventh hole at Edgewood Tahoe after a slow start to the day in the nearby media room, I glanced at the large leaderboard. One Wardell Stephen Curry II had climbed to 51 Stableford points.

Mardy Fish, who ended the first round with an eagle to propel him past Joe Pavelski and Annika Sorenstam at 52 points, sat at 54. Sorenstam held what turned out to be a brief lead with 55.

Four points! It was a deficit of eleven when the day started. With more than half the round still to play, that gap didn’t feel as impossible as it did in the morning.

Then I saw Victor Keys, one of the Warriors’ own video producers, walking past, setting himself and his equipment up for the eventual putt at that hole.

“He's off to a good start,” I said.

“Yeah,” he replied, “but he just hit the water.”

Moments later, the leaderboard changed. Curry’s double-bogey on the sixth hole dropped him two points, and from there the uphill climb became even steeper.

Over the next several holes I watched a few birdie opportunities slide past the cup. The tee shots remained strong. His approach play was solid, but golf has a way of magnifying the smallest mistakes. Before long, it became less about chasing Fish, Pavelski and Sorenstam and more about preserving another impressive finish.

Third place. On paper, it doesn’t jump off the page the way his unforgettable victory in 2023 does, but after spending another four days at the American Century Championship, I couldn’t shake a different thought.

What if we’re looking at the wrong comparison?

A Different Kind of Competitor

Throughout the week, one observation from our photographer Bianca Rhodes of B.Marie Photography stayed with me.

“I think it’s been a little different so far because Steph wasn’t goofing around as much and it seemed more serious the past two days.”

Rhodes has photographed Curry at Edgewood for years. She knows what relaxed Steph looks like. This year felt different. Not joyless. Focused.

Steph’s own comments throughout the tournament backed that up. After Friday’s opening round, he didn’t spend much time talking about birdies. Instead, he talked about bouncing back from adversity.

His favorite moment wasn’t a spectacular shot. It was saving par on the famous 17th hole after avoiding another big mistake:

Later, he explained something that may have been the most revealing quote of the entire week:

The idea of how do you pace yourself over the three days... not get too ahead of yourself when you get on a birdie streak and not get too deflated when you have a double... that emotional discipline is tough.

Then he made the comparison that, not being a golfer at all myself, but born to love the game of basketball, I could actually resonate with:

I play a sport that if I turn it over, I can go back and try to get a stop... Out here... you’ve got to stay in the moment as much as you can. It’s really hard out here.

That doesn’t sound like someone treating golf as an offseason hobby. That sounds like an elite competitor trying to solve a different puzzle.

Why Third Place Might Actually Be More Impressive

It’s easy to forget just how unusual Steph’s situation is. Fish and Pavelski have devoted enormous amounts of time to tournament golf. In fact, both regularly play in the Hilton Grand Vacations Tournament of Champions every January — Pavelski won it in 2025 and Fish did so just six months ago. Steph obviously can’t partake in that yet.

His calendar is still built around an NBA season, playoff runs, international commitments (more so nowadays Li-Ning China tours than actual basketball — I’ve been told nothing is imminent this summer in China so far), recovery, and training.

He skipped the ACC entirely in 2024 because of the Olympics. Last year, he arrived after recovering from a hamstring injury, a Warriors playoff run that included a grueling seven-game series against Houston and, well, not having played at Edgewood since his 2023 championship.

This year? He still finished third, not because celebrity golf is easy, but because Steph Curry is extraordinarily competitive.

The Rick Rhoden Blueprint

During Thursday’s media session, Fish mentioned a familiar name to longtime followers of this tournament: Rick Rhoden. “The best athlete golfer in the world,” Fish said.

Most sports fans remember Rhoden as a Major League Baseball pitcher, mostly for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Golf fans might know him differently. After retiring from baseball at age 36, Rhoden devoted himself to golf.

He won his first American Century Championship at 38. He would go on to become the tournament’s most decorated champion, winning it six times. He came remarkably close to earning full status on the PGA over-50 seniors’ circuit, now known as the Champions Tour, eventually competing in multiple Champions Tour events through sponsor exemptions and qualifiers before later enjoying tremendous success on the celebrity golf circuit.

That raises an intriguing question: What happens when Curry eventually has the same luxury Rhoden did?

No NBA training camp, no 82-game season, no playoff series. Just golf, twelve months a year.

It’s difficult to imagine someone as obsessive about improvement as Steph not taking another leap once basketball is no longer demanding nearly every day of his calendar.

Will that mean multiple American Century Championship titles? Could it eventually include a serious run at PGA TOUR Champions qualifying?

Nobody knows, but after watching him this week, it feels like a possibility.

The final day wasn’t only about scores. Our photographs captured something else entirely. The hugs with longtime caddie Jason Richards after good shots, the constant joking between the two, Steph pausing to sign golf balls before tossing them to kids lining the ropes, a dunk at the basketball hoop near the 17th tee, family traditions continuing with Dell and Seth Curry — even as Dell claimed this year’s Curry family championship belt.

Afterward, Steph reflected on what mattered most:

The memories you create with the week you spend here is awesome… Golf's given me so much... the camaraderie... meeting new people... I think so much good comes out of it.

That’s exactly what Edgewood feels like every July. The competition is genuine. So are the friendships.

Third place won’t be remembered the way 2023’s championship will, but years from now, if Curry is lifting another ACC trophy — or chasing a place on the PGA TOUR Champions circuit — we may look back on the summer of 2026 a little differently.

Not as the year he finished third, but as the year it became clear that golf wasn’t simply his offseason passion anymore. It looked like the early blueprint for whatever comes after basketball.

Just remember there’s one caveat to Curry following in the footsteps of Rhoden onto the PGA TOUR Champions circuit: because that would effectively establish Steph as a (senior) pro, he would lose his eligibility to play at the American Century Championship.

Then again, the HGV is in January so before Curry ever earns pro status, fans might be able to add Orlando to the current amateur celebrity tournament list that has Tahoe on it.

Maybe I’m getting ahead of myself and I’m certainly no Nostradamus, but let’s be grateful we can enjoy Steph’s presence in nearby beautiful Tahoe every July, whether or not that’s for another ten to fifteen years or so… 🔮

⛳️🫶💙💛

There may very well be a “transaction after the transaction” waiting in the wings as LeBron James mulls his decision. We’ve already discussed how likely it is that the Warriors would have to get off of Moses Moody’s contract should the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level be utilized — and, no, the contract of Brandin Podziemski is not enough, based on cap sheet calculations and the requirement to stay under the first apron in doing so.

But there may be one more.

Nothing really slips past our Discord Knowledge-Base and back on June 28th, a little over two weeks ago, the great Michael Scotto of HoopsHype — in the midst of a bevy of other big names mentioned right before the official start of free agency — reported that Golden State were among several teams showing interest in Brandon Williams:

While in Portland, new Mavericks general manager Mike Schmitz joined the Trail Blazers as an assistant general manager months after the team gave current Mavericks guard Brandon Williams his first opportunity to be an NBA player during the 2021-22 season. Four years later, Schmitz is beginning his tenure as Mavericks general manager, and Williams is coming off the best season of his career, averaging 13.0 points and 3.9 assists in 66 games, including 15 starts, for Dallas last season.

Several teams are expected to show interest in signing Williams as an unrestricted free agent, including the Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors, Boston Celtics, and the Mavericks, who want to retain him, league sources told HoopsHype. Dallas has Early Bird Rights on Williams entering free agency this summer.

Incidentally, by now, two weeks later, I think we can rule out a return to Dallas. One quick look at Yossi Gozlan’s CapSheets.com shows the rebuilding Mavs with 15 guaranteed contracts already, many of them young guys, all underneath the names of four familiar long-time vets.

So why do I think Dallas may already be out of the running—and why could Williams be connected to Golden State’s much larger LeBron, Melton and Moses Moody decisions? That is where the cap sheet, one longstanding personal connection and the Warriors’ possible next transaction begin to intersect.

Read more

One of the advantages of covering the American Century Championship year after year is that you begin to notice the subtle differences.

On Friday, Bianca Rhodes of B.Marie Photography said something that perfectly captured the mood of one Wardell Stephen Curry II’s opening round.

“I think it’s been a little different so far because Steph wasn’t goofing around as much and it seemed more serious the past two days,” Rhodes told me.

That wasn’t a criticism. If anything, it was recognition that Steph arrived at Edgewood ready to compete. After all, everyone who has played this tournament understands one reality: if you fall too far behind on Thursday or Friday, you’re probably chasing for the rest of the weekend.

That focus showed throughout a first round that finished with 25 Stableford points, good for third place behind the familiar names of past recent champions Joe Pavelski and Mardy Fish.

One of my favorite photographs from Friday wasn’t even a golf swing. It was Steph standing at the famous basketball hoop beside the 17th hole, ball in hand, reminding everyone that no matter how seriously he’s taking the tournament, he’s still Steph Curry.

The biggest moment of the day came at the par-3 17th. Due to the crazy winds, Steph found the beach area but recovered beautifully, saving par and keeping his round alive.

On 18th, he apparently took some advice from his caddie Jason Richards, with Richards joking he “almost got fired,” but actually getting the dap from Curry:

Afterward, Steph didn’t talk about birdies. He talked about resilience:

“17 was my favorite part of the day. Those are the parts, avoiding another double, keeping your round going.”

That’s probably the best summary of Friday. Not perfection. Patience.

After a costly four-putt on No. 12, Steph regrouped instead of unraveling. He made a long par putt on 13, escaped trouble on 17, and kept himself firmly in contention heading into the weekend.

As he explained afterward in the media room, “I was happy I didn’t get too rattled after the double and kept my round together.”

For someone who only plays a handful of competitive golf events each year, Steph admitted that the biggest challenge isn’t mechanics. It’s emotional discipline.

“You don’t want to get too ahead of yourself when you get on a birdie streak and not get too deflated when you have a double,” said Curry. “You’ve got to stay in the moment as much as you can.”

That mindset probably explains why Bianca noticed a different version of Steph this week: Less joking around, more focus.

Friday wasn’t all business, though. The Curry family tradition continued as Dell, Steph and Seth Curry once again battled for the family’s unofficial championship belt.

Steph laughed afterward that Seth, the two-time defending champion, might not be quite as confident after Friday’s round.

“They brought the belts out on 17 today. It’s such a cool tradition with my dad and my brother,” said Steph.

Those family moments remain one of the unique charms of the American Century Championship. Just minutes after grinding over every putt, the Currys were smiling together on the course, sharing another summer at Edgewood.

With two rounds remaining, Steph’s goal is simple: Eliminate mistakes, stay patient, keep yourself within striking distance heading to Sunday.

“We all take golf so seriously, but there is a level of awareness that we’re out here to have fun,” said Curry. “You want to see everybody do well. You just want to play a little bit better than they do.”

That’s the spirit of this tournament. Competitive enough to care, relaxed enough to hug your caddie after saving par. And, if our photographs are any indication, another memorable chapter in Steph Curry’s Lake Tahoe story.

📚 Thursday practice round + video/autographs

👀 My BTS moment with Anthony Slater in the ACC media room

🏆 Why Steph ❤️ ACC

🫶💙💛

Every summer, one of my favorite traditions begins the same way. Thursday at Edgewood isn’t quite tournament golf yet, the pressure hasn’t fully arrived, the galleries are a little smaller.

One Wardell Stephen Curry II has a little more time to interact with fans. And for us, it’s often the best day to simply observe. While I’m outside the ropes filming video and covering the media sessions, Bianca Rhodes of B.Marie Photography is inside the ropes looking for the moments television usually misses.

These are her favorite eight photographs from Thursday’s practice round.

One of the moments that stood out happened near the 18th tee. A young fan handed Curry a custom Davidson Wildcats No. 30 sombrero. Steph later wore it during his walk to the tee and even mentioned it during his post-practice media session:

A kid gave me a nice Davidson Wildcat No. 30 custom sombrero… You never know what’s gonna happen on that walk.

We managed to capture both the celebration after a great shot while Steph was wearing the sombrero and a quieter moment showing the fan who made it.

It’s those little stories that make this tournament different.

The other memorable part of the day happened inside the media room.

I happened to be sitting next to Anthony Slater of ESPN, with whom I was on the daily Warriors beat for about seven years (!) as he asked Steph the opening questions about LeBron James — questions that quickly became one of the day’s biggest NBA stories.

Instead of zooming tightly on Steph, I pulled my camera back so viewers could see a little of the reporting process itself: a veteran beat writer asking the question, recording the answer, and preparing the clip that would soon spread across social media:

Sometimes the story behind the story is just as interesting. For me, that’s what makes covering the American Century Championship so enjoyable year after year.

The golf is great. The scenery is spectacular, but it’s the human moments — between shots, between interviews, and between headlines — that keep bringing us back.

Tomorrow we’ll be back at Edgewood with more behind-the-scenes coverage from South Lake Tahoe.

🫶💙💛

Featuring longtime tournament PR director Phil “Dinger” Weidinger and superfan Mason Barber (@sfgraphs)

Every July, something interesting happens. For one week, the intensity of the NBA season gives way to mountain air, pine trees, crystal blue water and one of the most unique sporting events in America.

This one Wardell Stephen Curry II isn’t just another golfer at the American Century Championship anymore. He’s become one of the faces of the tournament.

As Let’s Go Warriors prepares to spend another four days covering Curry in South Lake Tahoe, I thought this would be the perfect time to revisit a conversation I recorded last summer with two people who know the event from completely different perspectives.

One is Phil “Dinger” Weidinger, who has spent decades leading public relations for the major golf events including the American Century Championship.

The other is Mason Barber, better known online as @sfgraphs, a longtime Warriors fan whose unforgettable interactions with Steph have become part of ACC lore.

Together, they tell the story of why this tournament has become so much more than celebrity golf.

“Congratulations on Raising a Son Like That”

One of my favorite stories from our conversation came from Phil.

Long before Steph became a four-time NBA champion and global superstar, he arrived at Edgewood Tahoe for his first American Century Championship in 2010.

Phil remembered something that had nothing to do with golf. He remembered how Steph treated people. After that first tournament, Phil told Dell Curry:

“Congratulations on raising a son that’s as nice as this young man.”

Dell smiled and replied:

“Do you know how much that makes a father feel?”

That exchange has stayed with Phil ever since.

What struck me most is that it echoes what Warriors fans and Bay Area media have witnessed for years. Whether it’s Chase Center, a community event or Lake Tahoe, Steph’s reputation isn’t built only on championships, it’s built on consistently treating people with respect.

Phil told me something else that stood out:

“He’s gotten even better because as he’s acquired more fame... he’s one of the most thoughtful people I’ve ever met.”

That’s high praise from someone who has spent decades working with celebrities across professional sports.

The Tournament Is Different Because the Athletes Can Be Themselves

Most sporting events naturally create distance between athletes and fans. The American Century Championship does the opposite.

Golf creates pauses. Players walk between holes, fans walk alongside them, there are conversations, high-fives, inside jokes.

One of them last year: “Hey Steph, are you a fan of Megan Thee Stallion?”

His answer? A smile. A glance back at the crowd. My oh my, times change quickly, don’t they? 😂

Occasionally, there’s even a memorable autograph. As Phil explained, the celebrities aren’t there carrying the pressure of their primary profession. They’re there to compete, yes, but also to reconnect with friends, enjoy Lake Tahoe and have fun.

Every year, NBC refreshes the field with new personalities while longtime participants return for what has become something like an annual reunion.

That atmosphere is exactly what makes Steph such a natural fit.

The Fans Are Part of the Show

Nobody illustrates that better than Mason Barber. If you’ve followed Warriors social media over the years, you’ve probably seen one of his viral moments.

There was the famous “Look at Curry, man...” jersey that Steph signed during the pandemic tournament after Mason happened to encounter him at Edgewood. That photo ended up making the rounds across national sports media during a quiet period in the sports calendar.

Then came perhaps the greatest autograph story I’ve ever heard. Mason asked Steph how many push-ups it would take to earn a signature.

Steph smiled: “Thirty.”

So Mason dropped to the ground — in front of roughly a thousand spectators at Tahoe altitude — and completed all thirty before earning not only the autograph, but also a handshake and a hug from Steph.

Eventually Steph even shared the moment on his own Instagram. You simply don’t find interactions like that during an NBA season.

Covering Tahoe Is Different, Too

For Let’s Go Warriors, this tournament has become its own tradition. Bianca Rhodes of B.Marie Photography and I have been credentialed here for years.

While Bianca works inside the ropes capturing photographs from angles most fans never get to see, I’m outside the ropes filming video, talking with fans, gathering interviews and trying to bring everyone along for the experience.

Every evening, Bianca selects her favorite images from the day, many of which we’ve shared on Instagram over the years.

Those photographs have become one of my favorite parts of covering the tournament because they preserve moments television often misses: a smile between holes, a candid interaction with fans, or simply Steph enjoying one of the most beautiful sporting venues anywhere.

Why Lake Tahoe Never Gets Old

One thing Phil said really stuck with me:

“If you don’t have fun in Tahoe during this tournament, you better look in a mirror.”

He’s probably right. This event isn’t just about golf. It’s about atmosphere. It’s about the lake. It’s about watching athletes from different sports relax together. It’s about seeing personalities instead of press conferences.

And for Warriors fans, it’s another opportunity to appreciate Steph in an environment where his generosity toward fans is on full display. That’s one reason I’ve never gotten tired of covering it.

Even after stepping away from the daily Warriors beat, Lake Tahoe remains one event I look forward to every single summer.

Watch the Full Conversation

Below is my full discussion with Phil Weidinger and Mason Barber.

If you’re curious about the behind-the-scenes logistics of the tournament, the evolution of the famous 17th hole, Mason’s unforgettable fan stories, or why the American Century Championship has become such a special stop for Steph Curry, I think you’ll enjoy the conversation.

Follow Along This Week

Over the next several days we’ll be sharing:

• 📸 Bianca’s favorite photos from each day

• 🎥 Behind-the-scenes videos from the course

• ⛳ Daily YouTube updates

• 📬 Additional coverage here on Substack

Whether you’re making the trip to Lake Tahoe or following from home, I hope we can bring you a little closer to one of the most enjoyable weeks on the Warriors calendar.

See you at Edgewood.

⛳️💙💛

I thought I had reached my conclusion after three-and-a-half hours of salary cap analysis. Then a phone call made me realize something even more interesting.

Just a day after publishing my thoughts on LeBron James’ free agency, something unexpected happened. I had a phone call that didn't necessarily change my opinion, it reinforced it.

The reason I found the conversation so compelling wasn’t because someone claimed to know where James is going. Quite the opposite. It was because someone who approached the question from an entirely different perspective ended up arriving at almost exactly the same conclusion I had.

That caught my attention.

In Thursday's article — and during a 3½-hour livestream — I tried to answer a question that I don't think gets asked often enough. Not, “Where can LeBron go?” But rather, “Where would LeBron actually want to go?”

The exercise quickly became much more than salary-cap math. As I worked through the cap sheets, roster construction and projected rotations, I found myself crossing teams off the list, not because they weren't talented, but because I couldn't realistically picture LeBron voluntarily coming off the bench.

For me, that essentially eliminated New York, Oklahoma City, and San Antonio. On the live, I crossed off Miami, but I’ ve changed my mind because obviously it isn’t unfathomable that Andrew Wiggins, even getting paid $30 million, would give way to Bron and be his backup, despite probably being a better point-of-attack defender than his would-be 42-year-old counterpart. But with sure-fire starters Bam Adebayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo, that’s a very badly spaced starting frontcourt.

Then another thought occurred to me. As someone who is now older than when I used to play basketball regularly myself, retired from playing the game due to double Achilles concerns, I started wondering whether I had been looking at LeBron through the wrong lens.

When you’re thirty, you’re still trying to prove yourself. When you’re forty-two and you’ve already won championships, particularly the one where you dragged your hometown squad over the finish line against the best regular season team of all-time, the competitive itch has already been scratched many times. Your worldview changes.

You’ve already silenced critics. You’ve already built your legacy. Maybe what matters changes. Maybe the question isn’t simply, “Where can I win?”

Maybe it’s, “Where will I enjoy playing basketball the most while still giving myself a chance?” With the Warriors, it should be quite obvious to all NBA fans that Joe Lacob has created a physical environment and day-to-day culture that is envied across the world.

That’s ultimately why I found myself leaning toward Golden State, not because I think it’s the easiest road for James, but because I wonder if it might actually be the most enjoyable one.

Then something happened that genuinely surprised me. A conversation with someone whose basketball judgment I respect independently arrived at almost exactly the same conclusion.

And here’s where things got really interesting...

[The rest of this article is for paid subscribers.]

🫶💙💛

QUICK BONUS/PLUG: Here’s everything we know about LeBron’s 2026 decision, as a screen recording of our wonderful Discord server, which is more so a searchable knowledge base library of breaking NBA and Warriors than a community.

Sign up and view the “Mike Dunleavy, Jr.” channel do FREE at https://whop.com/letsgowarriors:

Below, I’ll share why a league source with longstanding connections around the Rich Paul and the Klutch Sports ecosystem believes my conclusion may not be as far-fetched as it initially sounds — and why his reasoning actually strengthened my own…

Read more

After spending 3½ hours building NBA cap sheets, I came away with a very different conclusion than I expected.

For the better part of three and a half hours on Thursday’s livestream, I put myself through an unusual exercise.

Instead of asking where LeBron James should go, I tried asking a different question: If I were LeBron, what would I actually choose?

The cap sheets were only the beginning. The numbers eliminated more teams than I expected. Going into the livestream, I assumed there would be half a dozen legitimate destinations.

After working through roster construction, salary rules and likely rotations, the list became surprisingly short. One realization kept popping up: Would LeBron have to come off the bench?

The more we worked through each roster, the more certain I became. I crossed the Knicks, Thunder, Spurs, and eventually Heat off my list. Not because they aren’t good enough. Because I simply don’t believe LeBron wants to spend what could be his final NBA season coming off the bench behind younger established stars.

[NOTE: The video has detailed timestamps…]

That’s a completely different question than whether he’d accept it. Could he? Sure. Would he choose it? I don’t think so. That single question changed the entire exercise.

The cap sheets narrowed the field. Some contenders could only offer the veteran minimum. Others were squeezed by the first or second apron.

The Warriors’ situation was unique. If Golden State signs LeBron, my conclusion remains the same as during the livestream:

The most realistic path is moving Moses Moody’s salary while preserving the rest of the core. Trying to move Brandin Podziemski doesn’t get the math where it needs to go and, based on conversations with cap expert Yossi Gozlan of Third Apron, trading Kristaps Porziņģis immediately after agreeing to his new contract would be highly unusual. The cap mechanics consistently pointed back to Moody as the cleanest solution.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia became fascinating but largely because it still appears to be another veteran-minimum destination after using most of its available exceptions. Denver fell into a similar category because of its second-apron constraints.

Once the math settled, the list of realistic basketball fits became much shorter than I expected.

Then my old hoop buddy Mark Sapinoso texted me. He’s someone who used to enter teams in my Dream League Bay Area amateur basketball league. We’ve both been through the ringer and won our fair share of chips over the years in Asian-American tournaments all over.

We’re both older now. His response was simple: Cleveland for one final run. James is from there; he has a home there. It’s the perfect full-circle story.

Honestly, it’s hard to argue with that. If Hollywood wrote LeBron’s career, that’s probably the ending.

But after sleeping on it, this morning I texted him back. I’m starting to think Bron could still choose Golden State and I realized why.

When you’re 30, basketball is different. When you’re 42, it’s different again. You’ve already fought every battle, proven every point, carried various franchises.

You’ve already answered every criticism. Maybe what matters changes. Maybe you just want to enjoy basketball again.

That’s why Golden State suddenly makes sense to me. Not because it’s the easiest championship path. Not because it’s guaranteed. Because it might actually come with less pressure.

If LeBron returns to Cleveland, the expectations become enormous. People won’t celebrate the reunion. They’ll expect a Finals return, especially in the conference that doesn’t have OKC or the Spurs in it. Anything less probably gets viewed as disappointment.

Golden State feels different. You’d play with one Wardell Stephen Curry II instead of against him. You’d have a legitimate puncher’s chance. Go look at last season’s standings and tell me, as a DubNation diehard, that the Dubs can’t go win some games against Denver, the Lakers, Houston, a newly smaller Wolves, Portland with those two diminutive guards now, the Clippers, Dallas or even the upstart Jazz.

Maybe, for the first time in decades, LeBron wouldn’t have to carry the emotional weight of an entire franchise. Maybe that’s worth something when you’re 42.

Alas, the cap sheets tell us where LeBron can go, but they can’t tell us where he’ll be happiest. They can’t measure pressure. They can’t measure peace of mind. They can’t measure what it’s like to wake up one morning after twenty-plus NBA seasons and realize maybe your priorities have changed.

Maybe that’s exactly why this decision has taken so long, because this isn’t simply a competitive basketball decision anymore. It’s a life decision. A “love for the game” opportunity.

And if I’ve learned anything from spending 3½ hours staring at spreadsheets, it’s that sometimes the math narrows the choices. But only the person making the decision knows which one feels right.

Dear Joe Lacob, Mike Dunleavy, Jr., and Draymond Green. Feel free to include that “love of the game” montage if and when you send Rich Paul that last-ditch deck. I think a grizzled, mature 42-year-old man would actually appreciate that.

It may be enough to push him over the fence.

🫶💙💛

How did I go from from “keep Kristaps Porziņģis” to suddenly pondering if the Warriors are legitimately a LeBron James destination?

NBA free agency moves fast!

At the time, the math and the difficulty in viewing Moses Moody or, really, anybody other than Porzingis as a trade chip supported the conclusion that the only way to open up a Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception (NTMLE) was to renounce him as a free agent.

But just keeping him preserved a valuable salary slot that could later be used in a trade down the line. Giving that up for a difficult path to the NTMLE simply didn’t seem worthwhile.

Then the dominoes started falling. First, Draymond Green opted out. Instead of locking in his $27.8 million player option, Green chose free agency, immediately opening new possibilities for how the Warriors could structure the roster.

That alone didn’t solve everything, but it cracked open a door that had previously been closed. Then came the biggest shock of the offseason.

LeBron James and the Lakers publicly acknowledged that they would be parting ways, complete with mutual farewell messages on social media. Suddenly, this wasn’t just another rumor cycle.

LeBron was genuinely available and, now, the cap sheet has become the story. The Warriors have been linked to stars before: Lauri Markkanen, Paul George, Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokuonmpo, heck, Jimmy Butler — and we actually signed that one!

Every summer and February trade deadline seems to produce another blockbuster rumor. LThis one feels different, not because James is necessarily more likely to end up in Golden State, but because the Collective Bargaining Agreement plays such a critical role in his decision.

This is no longer necessarily about basketball fit. It’s about what each team can legally offer. That distinction has become the focus of my recent livestreams.What can each team actually offer him under the salary cap?

As if that weren’t enough, another report completely reshaped Golden State’s options. When KP agreed to his new two-year, $40 million contract, many assumed he had simply re-signed as a free agent.

Instead, Marc Stein later reported that the deal was structured as an extension to his existing contract. That matters enormously because extensions can carry different trade implications than newly signed free agents. Because sign-and-trade deals require at least three years and Porzingis’ deal was reported as a 1+1, begore Stein’s tweet I had thought nevermind, KP will stay as a Warrior.

Instead of Porziņģis simply occupying cap space, his contract could theoretically function as one of Golden State’s most important trade assets immediately. That reopened discussions about trade constructions that previously appeared impossible.

Then came another twist. Salary-cap expert Yossi Gozlan also weighed in. His conclusion: Based on his decade of experience with extension signings, not only would trading Kristaps be considered a “reneg” of the deal and therefore Porzingis was highly unlikely to be turned around and traded right after signing on the dotted line, if Golden State wants to maximize its flexibility — particularly if the Warriors hope to use the full NTMLE on LeBron — Moody may have to become part of the equation.

That’s a painful conversation, as Moody has become a fan favorite and remains one of the organization’s better developmental stories. But the new CBA often forces front offices to choose between sentiment and flexibility.

Over the last several days we’ve essentially built a running “Decision Tree” together. Every report changes another branch. Every contract changes another calculation. Every insider update sends us back to the spreadsheet.

Tonight we’ll continue that process. We’ll compare what the Warriors can actually offer LeBron with what appears to be available from several of the other reported contenders, including:

• New York

• Philadelphia

• Cleveland

• Miami

• Denver

• Minnesota

The question isn’t simply:Who wants LeBron?

The better question is: Who can actually construct a legal path to signing him?

That’s where things get fascinating. As of this writing, Golden State appears to possess one of the strongest financial paths available.

That doesn’t guarantee LeBron becomes a Warrior. There are basketball considerations, family considerations, championship-contending considerations, organizational relationships and franchise reputations.

That’s worth exploring carefully, not just because of LBJ, but because understanding these rules also helps explain every other move Mike Dunleavy, Jr. makes this summer.

So, join us on the live or check out the archived version — I always post detailed timestamps within one hour after our livestreams air.

If you’ve been following this offseason with us, you know these live chats aren’t rumor shows. They’re work sessions.

We pull up the cap sheets, we test ideas, we stress-test trades and sometimes during that process, we discover why an idea won’t work. Sometimes we stumble onto one that just might.

And it’s not just for this season. It hasn’t been talked about much by anyone in DubNation save for myself, but the Warriors are on schedule to have tons of cap space available next summer. They’ll be able to go on a free agent shopping spree akin to what the LA Lakers did these past several days.

Makes you wonder if we might be better served to hang on to those draft picks and maybe not throw ourselves at a non-All-Star like Trey Murphy. As for Jaylen Brown in the thumbnail, we can assume that the Boston Celtics did not want to trade for an injured Jimmy, but now, the Philadelphia 76ers do become an intriguing destination for LeBron. We’ll examine the math for all of this.

With his future now hanging over the league and new reports arriving almost hourly, there’s never been a better time to walk through the Decision Tree together.

I’ll see you live tonight:

One thing I’ve really grown to appreciate over the last week is how collaborative these livestreams have become. Together we keep refining the Decision Tree until we arrive at the most realistic possibilities.

Whether LeBron ultimately lands in Golden State or not, the process itself has become one of my favorite parts of covering this offseason.

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