Let me get the important distinction out of the way first. I am not predicting that one Wardell Stephen Curry II will decline a contract extension from the Golden State Warriors or that the franchise does not want to pay him what he’s worth.

Steph has publicly indicated he wants to pursue another extension, “for sure”. Mike Dunleavy, Jr. reiterated last month on the podium that Curry wants to finish his career as a Warrior [see entire 30-minute interview here and with full transcript in the Comments] and most NBA players presented with another massive amount of guaranteed money take it, as soon as the opportunity presents itself.

What I’m arguing is something different: Steph shouldn’t sign yet, not because he should leave, not because the Warriors shouldn’t pay him, not because Curry necessarily owes Joe Lacob a discount after everything he has done for this franchise.

August 29th is the first day he can sign an extension. It doesn’t have to be the day he should. There is one enormous variable that neither Steph nor the Warriors can fully understand on 8/29: his runner’s knee.

Trust can buy you optionality

The conventional logic here is pretty straightforward. Curry is entering the final season of his contract. He’s 38. Golden State wants him to retire a Warrior. Steph wants the same thing.

At the presser, Dunleavy was asked whether anything had changed: “Not to me, no, he hasn’t. That’s always been the message… I’m pretty confident Steph will finish his career here.”

Later, Nick Friedell of The Athletic asked Dunleavy about August 29th and whether he was confident something could ultimately get worked out.

“There’s two things I’m confident about with Steph,” Dunleavy said. “He really, really wants to win and he wants to finish his career as a Warrior.”

That is precisely why I don’t think anybody needs to rush. Normally, an unsigned extension creates uncertainty. With No. 30 and the Warriors, the extraordinary level of trust could actually turn that uncertainty into an asset.

If Steph doesn’t sign on August 29, that doesn’t mean he wants to leave. It doesn’t mean Lacob doesn’t want to pay him. It means they preserve optionality — a term first uttered by former Warriors general manager Bob Myers many years ago and now has become part of lexicon for all thirty NBA GMs (as well as a bad word on Warriors Twitter, apparently) — while acquiring something neither side can manufacture today: More information.

“This thing’s delicate”

There was another Dunleavy answer from that same Zoom call that matters even more. Joseph Dycus of the Bay Area News Group asked about Curry’s knee and how much the Warriors expect him to play this season after Steph appeared in only 43 games last year.

“With the knee, other injuries and then his age, it’s definitely something we have to manage,” Dunleavy said.

Then came that word Taylor Swift made into an auto-chime in the brain:

“My hope would be he plays more than… 43 games last year. I hope he plays more than that this year,” Dunleavy said. “We expect that, but you take nothing for granted, so it’s on the radar. It’s something we have to be mindful of and this thing’s delicate.”

That doesn’t mean Curry’s knee is doomed or that he has some catastrophic structural condition. It certainly doesn’t mean those of us outside the Warriors medical staff should diagnose him, but it does mean that we don’t know.

Which brings me to a conversation we happened to have recently with UCSF orthopedic surgeon Dr. Nirav Pandya.

The number of minutes may not be the real question

If Golden State is effectively trying to keep its powder dry for greater roster flexibility later, can the Warriors afford something resembling a “gap year” when Curry is already 38?

Pandya’s answer changed the way I look at this.

“I worry about the load more than the minutes and what he’s doing during those 32, 33 minutes,” Pandya said.

You see that distinction? Load management gets discussed like arithmetic: 32 minutes becomes 30, 30 becomes 28, sit Steph on the second night of some back-to-backs and we’re good, right?

Maybe, but 28 minutes of Steph Curry aren’t necessarily the same thing as 28 minutes from another NBA player. What makes Steph special is movement, running, cutting, relocating, creating separation, getting bumped and grabbed away from the ball:

And when everything else breaks down, how many Warriors possessions still ultimately become, like, “Steph, save us!”

Dr. Pandya explained that runner’s knee itself can be a broad term. If Curry is dealing primarily with irritated muscles or tendons, reducing his minutes and workload could be exactly what he needs, but Pandya also raised the other possibility.

“Where is it coming from?” he said. “Is it some cartilage irritation, right? And then you’re worried about, ‘Okay, well, if that’s the case then could that get worse over the year?’ Absolutely. Is it just more muscle, tendon stuff, then maybe less concern…”

Again, Pandya was not diagnosing Curry with cartilage damage. He’s explaining why the underlying cause matters. And then he said something that should get everybody’s attention when we’re simultaneously discussing a new multi-year contract:

“What makes his game so special is his movement and you’re trying to limit that? And then you don’t have many other offensive weapons? Yeah, I absolutely do get worried about, does this year mean he’s just going to be degenerating a little bit more?”

That’s the unknown.

So why choose the number now?

Imagine two very different versions of the upcoming season. In the first, Curry’s knee continues giving him problems. Maybe he misses another large chunk of games, or his workload has to be dramatically reduced, or Golden State discovers that the physical demands required for Steph to remain Steph are becoming increasingly difficult to sustain.

Now we’ve learned something. And instead of having already committed enormous future salary to Curry, perhaps next summer Steph and the Warriors can look at the entire situation together and hit what I’ve been calling a “soft reset.”

Steph could take less à la Jalen Brunson or Victor Wembanyama and the Warriors could gain additional flexibility. That cap space could be redirected toward putting a deeper, younger and more sustainable roster around him — pretty much what the LA Lakers were able to do this off-season around Luka Doncic, although it can be argued that the pieces they signed could’ve been better (oh well, that’s their problem), but the bottom line remains: they went on a free agent shopping spree.

That isn’t Steph sacrificing for Lacob’s bank account. That’s Steph investing in Ring No. 5.

Now imagine the opposite: Steph’s knee responds beautifully. The swelling and pain are gone, the Warriors figure out the right workload, Curry plays significantly more than 43 games and demonstrates that he can still withstand the demands of being the center of an NBA offense.

Great! Now you have different information. If Steph wants a huge salary at that point, choose the number accordingly. Dunleavy has essentially made clear that Curry has earned tremendous agency over how the end of this story unfolds.

And even in that healthier scenario, Steph and the Warriors could still explore whether there is some strategic middle ground — the general concept we’ve seen elsewhere when stars structure their compensation with roster-building in mind.

The point isn’t that Curry must take a discount. The point is, why decide how much Curry should make in the future before you know what future Curry looks like?

Maybe preserving Steph means changing Steph

My live discussion with Dr. Pandya led us to uncharted territory. For years, people have wondered how Curry’s game might age. Could there eventually be a little Ray Allen or Kyle Korver in the evolution — not literally turning the greatest shooter ever into somebody standing in the corner, but reducing how often Steph has to manufacture all that movement and separation himself?

“Maybe this runner’s knee kind of speeds up the process in which the Warriors offense changes,” Pandya said.

That’s fascinating. What does Steph at 39 look like? Does he run the same mileage? Does he create as many shots himself? Can someone like Brandin Podziemski or De’Anthony Melton take another step as a creator? My hope was for Brandon Williams to be part of this equation and sure enough, it happened.

Can Jimmy Butler shoulder more offense once healthy? Can Yaxel Lendeborg eventually absorb some responsibility? Or does the player who reduces Curry’s workload not even exist on this roster yet?

Maybe preserving Steph Curry eventually means changing the ecosystem that made Steph Curry possible. That is another thing the Warriors can spend this season learning.

The argument against me is pretty obvious

There is an entirely reasonable response to everything I just wrote: You’re overthinking this; Steph deserves everything, so take the guaranteed money and make sure it’s the max.

I mean, that’s fair. Curry is 38 years old and guaranteed money is guaranteed money. If the Warriors offer him another massive extension, there is an obvious reason to sign it. The financial return on ensuring Steph is a Warrior for two more years is probably immeasurable. And again, Curry himself has already publicly indicated an interest in pursuing an extension.

So this is not my prediction that Steph will walk into Dunleavy’s office on August 29th and say, “Nah, I’m good.” He very well may sign. I simply don’t think he needs to, because Curry possesses something most NBA players approaching free agency don’t: an extraordinary amount of institutional trust.

If Steph doesn’t sign now, then gets hurt, do we really believe the Golden State Warriors are suddenly going to tell the greatest player in franchise history to take a hike?

Incidentally, Lacob didn’t do that to Klay Thompson.

Conversely, does anybody believe Steph needs two additional guaranteed years on paper to prove that he wants to retire a Warrior?

Dunleavy himself said those two things he knows about Curry — wanting to win and wanting to finish here — aren’t going to change on 8/29, Opening Night, the middle of the season or the end of next season. If that’s true, what’s the rush?

Play first. Decide second.

See what the knee does, what the workload does, what the roster does, what Curry looks like at 38, what the Warriors look like when he isn’t playing, whether Golden State needs to change the offense to preserve him — or whether it’s time to hit the hard rest button at the trade deadline, if the Dubs are, like, ten games under .500 or something.

I still think sitting down next summer with a clean cap sheet, with far more information than anybody possesses today is best for the quest for a fifth championship.

After all, if trouble brews in Denver after sending out Peyton Watson to get under the second apron, Nikola Jokic has the excuse he needs to leave the Nuggets. Or if Karl-Anthony Towns isn’t offered an extension from the Knicks for as much as he thinks he deserves, you never know. The leaner Curry can help keep that cap sheet, the better chance of netting a big fish should it start to swim away from the incumbent.

I’ve started to discuss this on the YouTube channel and we’ll look into the projected numbers more and more for the Summer 2027 Warriors cap sheet:

If Steph is still Steph, compensate him accordingly while collectively deciding how much flexibility they want to preserve around him. Either outcome is better informed than making the decision today.

And, friendly reminder, this has been a collaboration between Steph, Draymond Green, Lacob and Dunleavy. The fact that Draymond opted out just to enable the franchise to pursue LeBron James — and then restoring the contract back to its original form when that pursuit came up empty — is the clearest sign of that.

I believe another clear sign of that is when Dunleavy snapped back at reporters after this past February’ s deadline when asked if Green was part of any trade discussions.

As far as the public perception of Steph not signing an extension, I believe that in recent years, the team’s brain trust has always operated at the cost of being judged as incompetent. Friedell even wrote today in The Athletic that the scrutiny will come raining down heavy should Curry not sign an extension until later.

But we saw this happen all summer, anyways. Kirk Lacob even labeled a lot of the hearsay as “garbage”. It is not the style of the Warriors’ brass to come out and defend every move or non-move they make. So if Curry does not sign an extension, he will address it once and they will move on, knowing there is little they can do about the inevitable “garbage” that will arise as discourse from Steph’s decision.

But logically, it behooves him and anyone seeking a fifth GSW banner during his tenure to wait until more information comes in, likely at the very least the February 2027 trade deadline.

This isn’t ultimately about saving Lacob money. It isn’t about asking Curry to give back something he has earned. It’s about aligning Steph’s money, Steph’s body and the Warriors’ roster in whatever combination gives 30 the best chance to do the one thing Dunleavy says he still “really, really” wants to do: win.

Reload that roster. One last time. One last parade. Ring No. 5.

🫶💙💛

R.I.P. Don Nelson aka “Nellie”. Blessed to have been there to film his last press conference with the Golden State Warriors, when PR man Raymond Ridder brought various Dubs luminaries back to Oracle Arena for the team’s last season there.

It was February 21, 2019, and Nellie, Stephen Jackson aka “Stak” and Jason Richardson aka “J-Rich” came back to reminisce on the 2007 We Believe team. J-Rich said he was going back to get his college degree and Stak was just getting ​⁠All The Smoke podcast off the ground with Matt Barnes.

S/O to my friend and colleague Felicia Purcell of Sports In The Bay‬​⁠ who prompted Nellie to give that epic answer: “Yeah, I’ve been smoking some pot.” 😂

Here are some highlights in a 90-second YouTube Short:

Full nine-minute presser. I’ve placed the entire transcript behind the paywall way below 👇

We’ve got a ton more content on our Nellie/WeBelieve playlist you should check out, too!

And a bevy of Nellie tributes from former players, teammates, and friends — too many to copy and paste here, I literally tried! — on our free-to-join Discord Knowledge Base, under the “Former Dubs” section [hyperlink only works if you are a registered member (free) of our Discord.]

A graphic my old Golden State of Mind (aka GSoM) colleague Tony “TonyPSD” Robles made back in 2007:

Tim Hardaway, Sr. said on 95.7 The Game this morning (video is on our Discord) that Nellie made the game fun. Thank you, Nellie, for that super-fun Run TMC ride. I’ll never forget my dad getting us mini-plan tickets and witnessing Mitch Richmond rack up 47 points, all on only two-pointers and free throws against Sacramento.

FULL TRANSCRIPT OF NELLIE, STAK, AND J-RICH 👇

🫶💙🧡

Read more

Here’s the number I couldn’t stop thinking about after this week’s livestream with Dean “of Positivity” Chambers:

Once you start from that reality, almost every offseason rumor looks different.

When Draymond Green re-signed at essentially his original salary, it looked like a quiet piece of business. The reaction across social media was almost the opposite. Many fans immediately concluded the Warriors had “run it back,” that Joe Lacob — and, oddly, not so much Mike Dunleavy, Jr. — had failed one Wardell Stephen Curry II, and effectively conceded the season.

After spending another livestream going through the salary cap with Dean, I actually came away with a different conclusion because the cap sheet tells a more interesting story than the transaction wire.

Want to see every spreadsheet iteration?

The embedded video above is the distilled conclusion. If you’d like to follow every cap-sheet calculation and alternate path Dean Chambers and I explored live, here’s the full archived livestream (with chapters/timestamps so you can skip around to various topics):

Earlier this week, it appeared there might still be a path toward using the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception on DeMar DeRozan, as the plan all along had been to grant LeBron James that $15 million slot.

That possibility depended on several things happening one after the other Green would have needed to opt out and re-sign at a significantly lower first-year salary. But with James choosing to join Philadelphia on a much lower available contract at his veteran’s minimum of roughly $4 million, the NTMLE the Warriors freed up as a result of Draymond’s generosity could instead be offered to DeRozan. We originally discussed that here:

The Warriors would have needed to prioritize immediate improvement over maintaining future flexibility. Once Dray re-signed at his previous figure, most of those branches disappeared.

The “Decision Tree” became much simpler. One point Dean and I kept coming back to was Moses Moody.

Trading Moody to create room for an aging veteran sounds attractive on paper, particularly after another disappointing postseason and, well, the fact that Moody is injured at least for another few months.

But Moody isn’t simply a rotation player. He’s also one of the Warriors’ few meaningful salary slots that projects to still have value heading into Summer 2027. That’s a very different conversation than simply asking whether DeRozan is better than Moody today.

The Warriors’ roster also presents another challenge that doesn’t receive enough attention. Roughly 85 percent of their committed salary is tied up in players who are either:

• veterans,

• recovering from injuries,

• or both.

That’s a difficult roster to trade from. It’s easy to say the front office should “make a move.” It’s much harder to identify the team that actually wants to absorb those contracts without demanding significant assets in return.

Viewed through that lens, standing pat starts looking less like passivity and more like realism. That doesn’t mean the offseason is over. There is still room for veteran minimum additions.

Gary Payton II, whose re-signing was just announced, always was a logical possibility due to his willingness to play for a veteran’s minimum and his stellar and durable 2025-26 campaign in which he played in 73 games.

Brandon Williams continues to intrigue me because of what he could add as a downhill scoring guard. We discussed him at length here:

As of this writing, I do not have any additional intel to figure out why Williams has not been signed yet. He could very well have an offer from another team in which there are other things they need to wait on. Perhaps it has something to do with the limbo status that Peyton Watson, Jonathan Kuminga and Bennedict Mathurin find themselves in, as those are all players expected to get salaries in that NTMLE range, whereas Williams is probably looking at between veteran’s minimum and Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception (roughly $6 million) offers.

But the blockbuster paths that existed several weeks ago have largely closed, namely LeBron.

What makes this interesting is that the Warriors’ long game may now be more important than the next few weeks. Rather than forcing a move simply to satisfy the offseason conversation, they may be positioning themselves for greater flexibility later.

That includes the February trade deadline and, perhaps even more importantly, Summer 2027. Those will be the next branches of the Decision Tree.

What do you think?

Would you have sacrificed future flexibility to chase DeRozan? Or do you think preserving the cap sheet gives Curry a better chance to compete over the next two seasons?

The spreadsheet behind today’s analysis started as a live Decision Tree session with Dean Chambers. As the offseason continues, I’m also experimenting with shorter written analyses here on Substack, while using our Discord “Knowledge Base” to collect the daily developments that eventually become these articles and videos. Thanks for reading and for following along.

There was a brief moment Sunday morning when it felt like the tournament might get interesting again.

As I walked toward the seventh hole at Edgewood Tahoe after a slow start to the day in the nearby media room, I glanced at the large leaderboard. One Wardell Stephen Curry II had climbed to 51 Stableford points.

Mardy Fish, who ended the first round with an eagle to propel him past Joe Pavelski and Annika Sorenstam at 52 points, sat at 54. Sorenstam held what turned out to be a brief lead with 55.

Four points! It was a deficit of eleven when the day started. With more than half the round still to play, that gap didn’t feel as impossible as it did in the morning.

Then I saw Victor Keys, one of the Warriors’ own video producers, walking past, setting himself and his equipment up for the eventual putt at that hole.

“He's off to a good start,” I said.

“Yeah,” he replied, “but he just hit the water.”

Moments later, the leaderboard changed. Curry’s double-bogey on the sixth hole dropped him two points, and from there the uphill climb became even steeper.

Over the next several holes I watched a few birdie opportunities slide past the cup. The tee shots remained strong. His approach play was solid, but golf has a way of magnifying the smallest mistakes. Before long, it became less about chasing Fish, Pavelski and Sorenstam and more about preserving another impressive finish.

Third place. On paper, it doesn’t jump off the page the way his unforgettable victory in 2023 does, but after spending another four days at the American Century Championship, I couldn’t shake a different thought.

What if we’re looking at the wrong comparison?

A Different Kind of Competitor

Throughout the week, one observation from our photographer Bianca Rhodes of B.Marie Photography stayed with me.

“I think it’s been a little different so far because Steph wasn’t goofing around as much and it seemed more serious the past two days.”

Rhodes has photographed Curry at Edgewood for years. She knows what relaxed Steph looks like. This year felt different. Not joyless. Focused.

Steph’s own comments throughout the tournament backed that up. After Friday’s opening round, he didn’t spend much time talking about birdies. Instead, he talked about bouncing back from adversity.

His favorite moment wasn’t a spectacular shot. It was saving par on the famous 17th hole after avoiding another big mistake:

Later, he explained something that may have been the most revealing quote of the entire week:

The idea of how do you pace yourself over the three days... not get too ahead of yourself when you get on a birdie streak and not get too deflated when you have a double... that emotional discipline is tough.

Then he made the comparison that, not being a golfer at all myself, but born to love the game of basketball, I could actually resonate with:

I play a sport that if I turn it over, I can go back and try to get a stop... Out here... you’ve got to stay in the moment as much as you can. It’s really hard out here.

That doesn’t sound like someone treating golf as an offseason hobby. That sounds like an elite competitor trying to solve a different puzzle.

Why Third Place Might Actually Be More Impressive

It’s easy to forget just how unusual Steph’s situation is. Fish and Pavelski have devoted enormous amounts of time to tournament golf. In fact, both regularly play in the Hilton Grand Vacations Tournament of Champions every January — Pavelski won it in 2025 and Fish did so just six months ago. Steph obviously can’t partake in that yet.

His calendar is still built around an NBA season, playoff runs, international commitments (more so nowadays Li-Ning China tours than actual basketball — I’ve been told nothing is imminent this summer in China so far), recovery, and training.

He skipped the ACC entirely in 2024 because of the Olympics. Last year, he arrived after recovering from a hamstring injury, a Warriors playoff run that included a grueling seven-game series against Houston and, well, not having played at Edgewood since his 2023 championship.

This year? He still finished third, not because celebrity golf is easy, but because Steph Curry is extraordinarily competitive.

The Rick Rhoden Blueprint

During Thursday’s media session, Fish mentioned a familiar name to longtime followers of this tournament: Rick Rhoden. “The best athlete golfer in the world,” Fish said.

Most sports fans remember Rhoden as a Major League Baseball pitcher, mostly for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Golf fans might know him differently. After retiring from baseball at age 36, Rhoden devoted himself to golf.

He won his first American Century Championship at 38. He would go on to become the tournament’s most decorated champion, winning it six times. He came remarkably close to earning full status on the PGA over-50 seniors’ circuit, now known as the Champions Tour, eventually competing in multiple Champions Tour events through sponsor exemptions and qualifiers before later enjoying tremendous success on the celebrity golf circuit.

That raises an intriguing question: What happens when Curry eventually has the same luxury Rhoden did?

No NBA training camp, no 82-game season, no playoff series. Just golf, twelve months a year.

It’s difficult to imagine someone as obsessive about improvement as Steph not taking another leap once basketball is no longer demanding nearly every day of his calendar.

Will that mean multiple American Century Championship titles? Could it eventually include a serious run at PGA TOUR Champions qualifying?

Nobody knows, but after watching him this week, it feels like a possibility.

The final day wasn’t only about scores. Our photographs captured something else entirely. The hugs with longtime caddie Jason Richards after good shots, the constant joking between the two, Steph pausing to sign golf balls before tossing them to kids lining the ropes, a dunk at the basketball hoop near the 17th tee, family traditions continuing with Dell and Seth Curry — even as Dell claimed this year’s Curry family championship belt.

Afterward, Steph reflected on what mattered most:

The memories you create with the week you spend here is awesome… Golf's given me so much... the camaraderie... meeting new people... I think so much good comes out of it.

That’s exactly what Edgewood feels like every July. The competition is genuine. So are the friendships.

Third place won’t be remembered the way 2023’s championship will, but years from now, if Curry is lifting another ACC trophy — or chasing a place on the PGA TOUR Champions circuit — we may look back on the summer of 2026 a little differently.

Not as the year he finished third, but as the year it became clear that golf wasn’t simply his offseason passion anymore. It looked like the early blueprint for whatever comes after basketball.

Just remember there’s one caveat to Curry following in the footsteps of Rhoden onto the PGA TOUR Champions circuit: because that would effectively establish Steph as a (senior) pro, he would lose his eligibility to play at the American Century Championship.

Then again, the HGV is in January so before Curry ever earns pro status, fans might be able to add Orlando to the current amateur celebrity tournament list that has Tahoe on it.

Maybe I’m getting ahead of myself and I’m certainly no Nostradamus, but let’s be grateful we can enjoy Steph’s presence in nearby beautiful Tahoe every July, whether or not that’s for another ten to fifteen years or so… 🔮

⛳️🫶💙💛

There may very well be a “transaction after the transaction” waiting in the wings as LeBron James mulls his decision. We’ve already discussed how likely it is that the Warriors would have to get off of Moses Moody’s contract should the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level be utilized — and, no, the contract of Brandin Podziemski is not enough, based on cap sheet calculations and the requirement to stay under the first apron in doing so.

But there may be one more.

Nothing really slips past our Discord Knowledge-Base and back on June 28th, a little over two weeks ago, the great Michael Scotto of HoopsHype — in the midst of a bevy of other big names mentioned right before the official start of free agency — reported that Golden State were among several teams showing interest in Brandon Williams:

While in Portland, new Mavericks general manager Mike Schmitz joined the Trail Blazers as an assistant general manager months after the team gave current Mavericks guard Brandon Williams his first opportunity to be an NBA player during the 2021-22 season. Four years later, Schmitz is beginning his tenure as Mavericks general manager, and Williams is coming off the best season of his career, averaging 13.0 points and 3.9 assists in 66 games, including 15 starts, for Dallas last season.

Several teams are expected to show interest in signing Williams as an unrestricted free agent, including the Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors, Boston Celtics, and the Mavericks, who want to retain him, league sources told HoopsHype. Dallas has Early Bird Rights on Williams entering free agency this summer.

Incidentally, by now, two weeks later, I think we can rule out a return to Dallas. One quick look at Yossi Gozlan’s CapSheets.com shows the rebuilding Mavs with 15 guaranteed contracts already, many of them young guys, all underneath the names of four familiar long-time vets.

So why do I think Dallas may already be out of the running—and why could Williams be connected to Golden State’s much larger LeBron, Melton and Moses Moody decisions? That is where the cap sheet, one longstanding personal connection and the Warriors’ possible next transaction begin to intersect.

Read more

One of the advantages of covering the American Century Championship year after year is that you begin to notice the subtle differences.

On Friday, Bianca Rhodes of B.Marie Photography said something that perfectly captured the mood of one Wardell Stephen Curry II’s opening round.

“I think it’s been a little different so far because Steph wasn’t goofing around as much and it seemed more serious the past two days,” Rhodes told me.

That wasn’t a criticism. If anything, it was recognition that Steph arrived at Edgewood ready to compete. After all, everyone who has played this tournament understands one reality: if you fall too far behind on Thursday or Friday, you’re probably chasing for the rest of the weekend.

That focus showed throughout a first round that finished with 25 Stableford points, good for third place behind the familiar names of past recent champions Joe Pavelski and Mardy Fish.

One of my favorite photographs from Friday wasn’t even a golf swing. It was Steph standing at the famous basketball hoop beside the 17th hole, ball in hand, reminding everyone that no matter how seriously he’s taking the tournament, he’s still Steph Curry.

The biggest moment of the day came at the par-3 17th. Due to the crazy winds, Steph found the beach area but recovered beautifully, saving par and keeping his round alive.

On 18th, he apparently took some advice from his caddie Jason Richards, with Richards joking he “almost got fired,” but actually getting the dap from Curry:

Afterward, Steph didn’t talk about birdies. He talked about resilience:

“17 was my favorite part of the day. Those are the parts, avoiding another double, keeping your round going.”

That’s probably the best summary of Friday. Not perfection. Patience.

After a costly four-putt on No. 12, Steph regrouped instead of unraveling. He made a long par putt on 13, escaped trouble on 17, and kept himself firmly in contention heading into the weekend.

As he explained afterward in the media room, “I was happy I didn’t get too rattled after the double and kept my round together.”

For someone who only plays a handful of competitive golf events each year, Steph admitted that the biggest challenge isn’t mechanics. It’s emotional discipline.

“You don’t want to get too ahead of yourself when you get on a birdie streak and not get too deflated when you have a double,” said Curry. “You’ve got to stay in the moment as much as you can.”

That mindset probably explains why Bianca noticed a different version of Steph this week: Less joking around, more focus.

Friday wasn’t all business, though. The Curry family tradition continued as Dell, Steph and Seth Curry once again battled for the family’s unofficial championship belt.

Steph laughed afterward that Seth, the two-time defending champion, might not be quite as confident after Friday’s round.

“They brought the belts out on 17 today. It’s such a cool tradition with my dad and my brother,” said Steph.

Those family moments remain one of the unique charms of the American Century Championship. Just minutes after grinding over every putt, the Currys were smiling together on the course, sharing another summer at Edgewood.

With two rounds remaining, Steph’s goal is simple: Eliminate mistakes, stay patient, keep yourself within striking distance heading to Sunday.

“We all take golf so seriously, but there is a level of awareness that we’re out here to have fun,” said Curry. “You want to see everybody do well. You just want to play a little bit better than they do.”

That’s the spirit of this tournament. Competitive enough to care, relaxed enough to hug your caddie after saving par. And, if our photographs are any indication, another memorable chapter in Steph Curry’s Lake Tahoe story.

📚 Thursday practice round + video/autographs

👀 My BTS moment with Anthony Slater in the ACC media room

🏆 Why Steph ❤️ ACC

🫶💙💛

Every summer, one of my favorite traditions begins the same way. Thursday at Edgewood isn’t quite tournament golf yet, the pressure hasn’t fully arrived, the galleries are a little smaller.

One Wardell Stephen Curry II has a little more time to interact with fans. And for us, it’s often the best day to simply observe. While I’m outside the ropes filming video and covering the media sessions, Bianca Rhodes of B.Marie Photography is inside the ropes looking for the moments television usually misses.

These are her favorite eight photographs from Thursday’s practice round.

One of the moments that stood out happened near the 18th tee. A young fan handed Curry a custom Davidson Wildcats No. 30 sombrero. Steph later wore it during his walk to the tee and even mentioned it during his post-practice media session:

A kid gave me a nice Davidson Wildcat No. 30 custom sombrero… You never know what’s gonna happen on that walk.

We managed to capture both the celebration after a great shot while Steph was wearing the sombrero and a quieter moment showing the fan who made it.

It’s those little stories that make this tournament different.

The other memorable part of the day happened inside the media room.

I happened to be sitting next to Anthony Slater of ESPN, with whom I was on the daily Warriors beat for about seven years (!) as he asked Steph the opening questions about LeBron James — questions that quickly became one of the day’s biggest NBA stories.

Instead of zooming tightly on Steph, I pulled my camera back so viewers could see a little of the reporting process itself: a veteran beat writer asking the question, recording the answer, and preparing the clip that would soon spread across social media:

Sometimes the story behind the story is just as interesting. For me, that’s what makes covering the American Century Championship so enjoyable year after year.

The golf is great. The scenery is spectacular, but it’s the human moments — between shots, between interviews, and between headlines — that keep bringing us back.

Tomorrow we’ll be back at Edgewood with more behind-the-scenes coverage from South Lake Tahoe.

🫶💙💛

Featuring longtime tournament PR director Phil “Dinger” Weidinger and superfan Mason Barber (@sfgraphs)

Every July, something interesting happens. For one week, the intensity of the NBA season gives way to mountain air, pine trees, crystal blue water and one of the most unique sporting events in America.

This one Wardell Stephen Curry II isn’t just another golfer at the American Century Championship anymore. He’s become one of the faces of the tournament.

As Let’s Go Warriors prepares to spend another four days covering Curry in South Lake Tahoe, I thought this would be the perfect time to revisit a conversation I recorded last summer with two people who know the event from completely different perspectives.

One is Phil “Dinger” Weidinger, who has spent decades leading public relations for the major golf events including the American Century Championship.

The other is Mason Barber, better known online as @sfgraphs, a longtime Warriors fan whose unforgettable interactions with Steph have become part of ACC lore.

Together, they tell the story of why this tournament has become so much more than celebrity golf.

“Congratulations on Raising a Son Like That”

One of my favorite stories from our conversation came from Phil.

Long before Steph became a four-time NBA champion and global superstar, he arrived at Edgewood Tahoe for his first American Century Championship in 2010.

Phil remembered something that had nothing to do with golf. He remembered how Steph treated people. After that first tournament, Phil told Dell Curry:

“Congratulations on raising a son that’s as nice as this young man.”

Dell smiled and replied:

“Do you know how much that makes a father feel?”

That exchange has stayed with Phil ever since.

What struck me most is that it echoes what Warriors fans and Bay Area media have witnessed for years. Whether it’s Chase Center, a community event or Lake Tahoe, Steph’s reputation isn’t built only on championships, it’s built on consistently treating people with respect.

Phil told me something else that stood out:

“He’s gotten even better because as he’s acquired more fame... he’s one of the most thoughtful people I’ve ever met.”

That’s high praise from someone who has spent decades working with celebrities across professional sports.

The Tournament Is Different Because the Athletes Can Be Themselves

Most sporting events naturally create distance between athletes and fans. The American Century Championship does the opposite.

Golf creates pauses. Players walk between holes, fans walk alongside them, there are conversations, high-fives, inside jokes.

One of them last year: “Hey Steph, are you a fan of Megan Thee Stallion?”

His answer? A smile. A glance back at the crowd. My oh my, times change quickly, don’t they? 😂

Occasionally, there’s even a memorable autograph. As Phil explained, the celebrities aren’t there carrying the pressure of their primary profession. They’re there to compete, yes, but also to reconnect with friends, enjoy Lake Tahoe and have fun.

Every year, NBC refreshes the field with new personalities while longtime participants return for what has become something like an annual reunion.

That atmosphere is exactly what makes Steph such a natural fit.

The Fans Are Part of the Show

Nobody illustrates that better than Mason Barber. If you’ve followed Warriors social media over the years, you’ve probably seen one of his viral moments.

There was the famous “Look at Curry, man...” jersey that Steph signed during the pandemic tournament after Mason happened to encounter him at Edgewood. That photo ended up making the rounds across national sports media during a quiet period in the sports calendar.

Then came perhaps the greatest autograph story I’ve ever heard. Mason asked Steph how many push-ups it would take to earn a signature.

Steph smiled: “Thirty.”

So Mason dropped to the ground — in front of roughly a thousand spectators at Tahoe altitude — and completed all thirty before earning not only the autograph, but also a handshake and a hug from Steph.

Eventually Steph even shared the moment on his own Instagram. You simply don’t find interactions like that during an NBA season.

Covering Tahoe Is Different, Too

For Let’s Go Warriors, this tournament has become its own tradition. Bianca Rhodes of B.Marie Photography and I have been credentialed here for years.

While Bianca works inside the ropes capturing photographs from angles most fans never get to see, I’m outside the ropes filming video, talking with fans, gathering interviews and trying to bring everyone along for the experience.

Every evening, Bianca selects her favorite images from the day, many of which we’ve shared on Instagram over the years.

Those photographs have become one of my favorite parts of covering the tournament because they preserve moments television often misses: a smile between holes, a candid interaction with fans, or simply Steph enjoying one of the most beautiful sporting venues anywhere.

Why Lake Tahoe Never Gets Old

One thing Phil said really stuck with me:

“If you don’t have fun in Tahoe during this tournament, you better look in a mirror.”

He’s probably right. This event isn’t just about golf. It’s about atmosphere. It’s about the lake. It’s about watching athletes from different sports relax together. It’s about seeing personalities instead of press conferences.

And for Warriors fans, it’s another opportunity to appreciate Steph in an environment where his generosity toward fans is on full display. That’s one reason I’ve never gotten tired of covering it.

Even after stepping away from the daily Warriors beat, Lake Tahoe remains one event I look forward to every single summer.

Watch the Full Conversation

Below is my full discussion with Phil Weidinger and Mason Barber.

If you’re curious about the behind-the-scenes logistics of the tournament, the evolution of the famous 17th hole, Mason’s unforgettable fan stories, or why the American Century Championship has become such a special stop for Steph Curry, I think you’ll enjoy the conversation.

Follow Along This Week

Over the next several days we’ll be sharing:

• 📸 Bianca’s favorite photos from each day

• 🎥 Behind-the-scenes videos from the course

• ⛳ Daily YouTube updates

• 📬 Additional coverage here on Substack

Whether you’re making the trip to Lake Tahoe or following from home, I hope we can bring you a little closer to one of the most enjoyable weeks on the Warriors calendar.

See you at Edgewood.

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I thought I had reached my conclusion after three-and-a-half hours of salary cap analysis. Then a phone call made me realize something even more interesting.

Just a day after publishing my thoughts on LeBron James’ free agency, something unexpected happened. I had a phone call that didn't necessarily change my opinion, it reinforced it.

The reason I found the conversation so compelling wasn’t because someone claimed to know where James is going. Quite the opposite. It was because someone who approached the question from an entirely different perspective ended up arriving at almost exactly the same conclusion I had.

That caught my attention.

In Thursday's article — and during a 3½-hour livestream — I tried to answer a question that I don't think gets asked often enough. Not, “Where can LeBron go?” But rather, “Where would LeBron actually want to go?”

The exercise quickly became much more than salary-cap math. As I worked through the cap sheets, roster construction and projected rotations, I found myself crossing teams off the list, not because they weren't talented, but because I couldn't realistically picture LeBron voluntarily coming off the bench.

For me, that essentially eliminated New York, Oklahoma City, and San Antonio. On the live, I crossed off Miami, but I’ ve changed my mind because obviously it isn’t unfathomable that Andrew Wiggins, even getting paid $30 million, would give way to Bron and be his backup, despite probably being a better point-of-attack defender than his would-be 42-year-old counterpart. But with sure-fire starters Bam Adebayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo, that’s a very badly spaced starting frontcourt.

Then another thought occurred to me. As someone who is now older than when I used to play basketball regularly myself, retired from playing the game due to double Achilles concerns, I started wondering whether I had been looking at LeBron through the wrong lens.

When you’re thirty, you’re still trying to prove yourself. When you’re forty-two and you’ve already won championships, particularly the one where you dragged your hometown squad over the finish line against the best regular season team of all-time, the competitive itch has already been scratched many times. Your worldview changes.

You’ve already silenced critics. You’ve already built your legacy. Maybe what matters changes. Maybe the question isn’t simply, “Where can I win?”

Maybe it’s, “Where will I enjoy playing basketball the most while still giving myself a chance?” With the Warriors, it should be quite obvious to all NBA fans that Joe Lacob has created a physical environment and day-to-day culture that is envied across the world.

That’s ultimately why I found myself leaning toward Golden State, not because I think it’s the easiest road for James, but because I wonder if it might actually be the most enjoyable one.

Then something happened that genuinely surprised me. A conversation with someone whose basketball judgment I respect independently arrived at almost exactly the same conclusion.

And here’s where things got really interesting...

[The rest of this article is for paid subscribers.]

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QUICK BONUS/PLUG: Here’s everything we know about LeBron’s 2026 decision, as a screen recording of our wonderful Discord server, which is more so a searchable knowledge base library of breaking NBA and Warriors than a community.

Sign up and view the “Mike Dunleavy, Jr.” channel do FREE at https://whop.com/letsgowarriors:

Below, I’ll share why a league source with longstanding connections around the Rich Paul and the Klutch Sports ecosystem believes my conclusion may not be as far-fetched as it initially sounds — and why his reasoning actually strengthened my own…

Read more

After spending 3½ hours building NBA cap sheets, I came away with a very different conclusion than I expected.

For the better part of three and a half hours on Thursday’s livestream, I put myself through an unusual exercise.

Instead of asking where LeBron James should go, I tried asking a different question: If I were LeBron, what would I actually choose?

The cap sheets were only the beginning. The numbers eliminated more teams than I expected. Going into the livestream, I assumed there would be half a dozen legitimate destinations.

After working through roster construction, salary rules and likely rotations, the list became surprisingly short. One realization kept popping up: Would LeBron have to come off the bench?

The more we worked through each roster, the more certain I became. I crossed the Knicks, Thunder, Spurs, and eventually Heat off my list. Not because they aren’t good enough. Because I simply don’t believe LeBron wants to spend what could be his final NBA season coming off the bench behind younger established stars.

[NOTE: The video has detailed timestamps…]

That’s a completely different question than whether he’d accept it. Could he? Sure. Would he choose it? I don’t think so. That single question changed the entire exercise.

The cap sheets narrowed the field. Some contenders could only offer the veteran minimum. Others were squeezed by the first or second apron.

The Warriors’ situation was unique. If Golden State signs LeBron, my conclusion remains the same as during the livestream:

The most realistic path is moving Moses Moody’s salary while preserving the rest of the core. Trying to move Brandin Podziemski doesn’t get the math where it needs to go and, based on conversations with cap expert Yossi Gozlan of Third Apron, trading Kristaps Porziņģis immediately after agreeing to his new contract would be highly unusual. The cap mechanics consistently pointed back to Moody as the cleanest solution.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia became fascinating but largely because it still appears to be another veteran-minimum destination after using most of its available exceptions. Denver fell into a similar category because of its second-apron constraints.

Once the math settled, the list of realistic basketball fits became much shorter than I expected.

Then my old hoop buddy Mark Sapinoso texted me. He’s someone who used to enter teams in my Dream League Bay Area amateur basketball league. We’ve both been through the ringer and won our fair share of chips over the years in Asian-American tournaments all over.

We’re both older now. His response was simple: Cleveland for one final run. James is from there; he has a home there. It’s the perfect full-circle story.

Honestly, it’s hard to argue with that. If Hollywood wrote LeBron’s career, that’s probably the ending.

But after sleeping on it, this morning I texted him back. I’m starting to think Bron could still choose Golden State and I realized why.

When you’re 30, basketball is different. When you’re 42, it’s different again. You’ve already fought every battle, proven every point, carried various franchises.

You’ve already answered every criticism. Maybe what matters changes. Maybe you just want to enjoy basketball again.

That’s why Golden State suddenly makes sense to me. Not because it’s the easiest championship path. Not because it’s guaranteed. Because it might actually come with less pressure.

If LeBron returns to Cleveland, the expectations become enormous. People won’t celebrate the reunion. They’ll expect a Finals return, especially in the conference that doesn’t have OKC or the Spurs in it. Anything less probably gets viewed as disappointment.

Golden State feels different. You’d play with one Wardell Stephen Curry II instead of against him. You’d have a legitimate puncher’s chance. Go look at last season’s standings and tell me, as a DubNation diehard, that the Dubs can’t go win some games against Denver, the Lakers, Houston, a newly smaller Wolves, Portland with those two diminutive guards now, the Clippers, Dallas or even the upstart Jazz.

Maybe, for the first time in decades, LeBron wouldn’t have to carry the emotional weight of an entire franchise. Maybe that’s worth something when you’re 42.

Alas, the cap sheets tell us where LeBron can go, but they can’t tell us where he’ll be happiest. They can’t measure pressure. They can’t measure peace of mind. They can’t measure what it’s like to wake up one morning after twenty-plus NBA seasons and realize maybe your priorities have changed.

Maybe that’s exactly why this decision has taken so long, because this isn’t simply a competitive basketball decision anymore. It’s a life decision. A “love for the game” opportunity.

And if I’ve learned anything from spending 3½ hours staring at spreadsheets, it’s that sometimes the math narrows the choices. But only the person making the decision knows which one feels right.

Dear Joe Lacob, Mike Dunleavy, Jr., and Draymond Green. Feel free to include that “love of the game” montage if and when you send Rich Paul that last-ditch deck. I think a grizzled, mature 42-year-old man would actually appreciate that.

It may be enough to push him over the fence.

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How did I go from from “keep Kristaps Porziņģis” to suddenly pondering if the Warriors are legitimately a LeBron James destination?

NBA free agency moves fast!

At the time, the math and the difficulty in viewing Moses Moody or, really, anybody other than Porzingis as a trade chip supported the conclusion that the only way to open up a Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception (NTMLE) was to renounce him as a free agent.

But just keeping him preserved a valuable salary slot that could later be used in a trade down the line. Giving that up for a difficult path to the NTMLE simply didn’t seem worthwhile.

Then the dominoes started falling. First, Draymond Green opted out. Instead of locking in his $27.8 million player option, Green chose free agency, immediately opening new possibilities for how the Warriors could structure the roster.

That alone didn’t solve everything, but it cracked open a door that had previously been closed. Then came the biggest shock of the offseason.

LeBron James and the Lakers publicly acknowledged that they would be parting ways, complete with mutual farewell messages on social media. Suddenly, this wasn’t just another rumor cycle.

LeBron was genuinely available and, now, the cap sheet has become the story. The Warriors have been linked to stars before: Lauri Markkanen, Paul George, Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokuonmpo, heck, Jimmy Butler — and we actually signed that one!

Every summer and February trade deadline seems to produce another blockbuster rumor. LThis one feels different, not because James is necessarily more likely to end up in Golden State, but because the Collective Bargaining Agreement plays such a critical role in his decision.

This is no longer necessarily about basketball fit. It’s about what each team can legally offer. That distinction has become the focus of my recent livestreams.What can each team actually offer him under the salary cap?

As if that weren’t enough, another report completely reshaped Golden State’s options. When KP agreed to his new two-year, $40 million contract, many assumed he had simply re-signed as a free agent.

Instead, Marc Stein later reported that the deal was structured as an extension to his existing contract. That matters enormously because extensions can carry different trade implications than newly signed free agents. Because sign-and-trade deals require at least three years and Porzingis’ deal was reported as a 1+1, begore Stein’s tweet I had thought nevermind, KP will stay as a Warrior.

Instead of Porziņģis simply occupying cap space, his contract could theoretically function as one of Golden State’s most important trade assets immediately. That reopened discussions about trade constructions that previously appeared impossible.

Then came another twist. Salary-cap expert Yossi Gozlan also weighed in. His conclusion: Based on his decade of experience with extension signings, not only would trading Kristaps be considered a “reneg” of the deal and therefore Porzingis was highly unlikely to be turned around and traded right after signing on the dotted line, if Golden State wants to maximize its flexibility — particularly if the Warriors hope to use the full NTMLE on LeBron — Moody may have to become part of the equation.

That’s a painful conversation, as Moody has become a fan favorite and remains one of the organization’s better developmental stories. But the new CBA often forces front offices to choose between sentiment and flexibility.

Over the last several days we’ve essentially built a running “Decision Tree” together. Every report changes another branch. Every contract changes another calculation. Every insider update sends us back to the spreadsheet.

Tonight we’ll continue that process. We’ll compare what the Warriors can actually offer LeBron with what appears to be available from several of the other reported contenders, including:

• New York

• Philadelphia

• Cleveland

• Miami

• Denver

• Minnesota

The question isn’t simply:Who wants LeBron?

The better question is: Who can actually construct a legal path to signing him?

That’s where things get fascinating. As of this writing, Golden State appears to possess one of the strongest financial paths available.

That doesn’t guarantee LeBron becomes a Warrior. There are basketball considerations, family considerations, championship-contending considerations, organizational relationships and franchise reputations.

That’s worth exploring carefully, not just because of LBJ, but because understanding these rules also helps explain every other move Mike Dunleavy, Jr. makes this summer.

So, join us on the live or check out the archived version — I always post detailed timestamps within one hour after our livestreams air.

If you’ve been following this offseason with us, you know these live chats aren’t rumor shows. They’re work sessions.

We pull up the cap sheets, we test ideas, we stress-test trades and sometimes during that process, we discover why an idea won’t work. Sometimes we stumble onto one that just might.

And it’s not just for this season. It hasn’t been talked about much by anyone in DubNation save for myself, but the Warriors are on schedule to have tons of cap space available next summer. They’ll be able to go on a free agent shopping spree akin to what the LA Lakers did these past several days.

Makes you wonder if we might be better served to hang on to those draft picks and maybe not throw ourselves at a non-All-Star like Trey Murphy. As for Jaylen Brown in the thumbnail, we can assume that the Boston Celtics did not want to trade for an injured Jimmy, but now, the Philadelphia 76ers do become an intriguing destination for LeBron. We’ll examine the math for all of this.

With his future now hanging over the league and new reports arriving almost hourly, there’s never been a better time to walk through the Decision Tree together.

I’ll see you live tonight:

One thing I’ve really grown to appreciate over the last week is how collaborative these livestreams have become. Together we keep refining the Decision Tree until we arrive at the most realistic possibilities.

Whether LeBron ultimately lands in Golden State or not, the process itself has become one of my favorite parts of covering this offseason.

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Other than myself, Bobby Marks of ESPN became the first reporter (finally!) to say that unless the Warriors make significant financial sacrifices, the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception (NTMLE) remains extremely difficult to access:

Because of the first apron hard cap, it is unlikely Golden State can use the $15 million non-tax midlevel exception and still have flexibility to remain under once the roster is filled out.

Of course, that part wasn’t as sexy as the next paragraph listing a bunch of free agents — we will discuss the top ones here — Marks thought would fit on the Golden State roster, so a lot of those kid aggregator fan pages skipped to the eye candy.

That sent me back to the spreadsheets, knowing that double sign-and-trades of Kristaps Porziņģis make a whole lot more sense than simply signing a free agent to the hard-to-get NTMLE.

After all, this was how Klay Thompson was traded out to the Dallas Mavs. The Dubs brought in Kyle Anderson and Buddy Hield, plus Chris Paul was waived to help duck under the first apron. Teams that receive a sign-and-trade free agent are hard-capped at the first apron.

During last night's livestream, I wanted to stop being at the mercy of the rumor mill and instead follow every realistic path the salary cap would allow. If Draymond Green opts in, one branch opens. If he opts out and takes a discount, an entirely different branch appears.

If Porziņģis returns at one number, one set of possibilities exists. If his number changes, the entire tree changes with it.

The fascinating part wasn't discovering dozens of new possibilities, it was eliminating them.

One by one, many of the names Warriors fans have discussed started falling away because of guaranteed years, apron restrictions, hard-cap implications, or Golden State's apparent desire to preserve maximum flexibility for the summer of 2027.

By the end of the exercise, the Decision Tree looked much different than it did when we started.

Below the paywall, I'll walk through why commenter-suggested Quentin Grimes unexpectedly survived the capsheet exercise better than many bigger names, why Collin Sexton and Anfernee Simons may be harder to acquire than they first appear, and why — perhaps surprisingly — the strongest branch of the tree may simply be keeping KP after all.

Incidentally, I have added timestamps to the livestream, so you can skip around as needed:

[Decision Tree conclusions below the paywall 👇]

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One of the reasons I enjoy building salary cap spreadsheets is that they force me to think like an NBA front office. Fans naturally ask, “Should we trade for this player?” or “Should we sign that player?”

A front office asks a different question: What possibilities does this move create — or eliminate?

That distinction became very clear on Thursday. The morning began with the news that Al Horford had agreed to return to the Warriors on a reported two-year, $14 million contract.

By itself, that didn’t dramatically alter my cap sheet. Horford’s deal fits neatly into the range of the 2025-26 taxpayer mid-level, the mechanism by which Horford joined Golden State, that I had already been projecting.

The bigger surprise came several hours later: Jimmy Butler appeared alongside Joe Lacob during the Warriors’ introduction of IREN as the franchise’s new jersey patch sponsor. Obviously, that wasn’t a basketball transaction, but I think it mattered.

Over the past several weeks, I’ve built dozens of Warriors salary-cap scenarios. One of my favorite — not because I expected it to happen, but because it solved so many mathematical problems — was trading Butler for Kawhi Leonard.

The appeal wasn’t Kawhi himself. The appeal was what the trade unlocked.

Specifically, the Dubs would be sending out Jimmy and Brandin Podziemski as well as two first-round picks (2027 and 2032) for Leonard. In fact, this was first proposed at the end of the regular season by ESPN’s Aaron Snellings.

Because Jimmy’s salary is already $6 million more than Kawhi’s and Podziemski makes about $5 million, the combined $11 million savings represented a jump start towards ducking under the luxury tax line.

Then, by having Draymond Green opt-out and sign an extension at a lower average annual value, plus massaging the number for Kristaps Porziņģis, you could theoretically get under the luxury tax line and enable the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception (NTMLE), which is roughly $15 million.

I’ve always understood how unlikely that trade was. Steve Ballmer has consistently been reported as wanting to keep Kawhi, and there has never been meaningful reporting that the Clippers were shopping him.

But if the dominoes fell, an entirely different decision tree opened. The Warriors could:

• stay below the tax,

• gain access to the NTMLE to go out and sign a free agent for roughly $15 million (this is the mechanism by which a lot of presumptuous speculation has been made by reporters),

• retain De’Anthony Melton for roughly $13 million while remaining below the first apron,

• and potentially execute a sign-and-trade involving Porziņģis at a competitive salary (as high as $24 million, depending on the discount Green would give – in this case, down to $16 million), perhaps enough to dissuade LeBron James from staying with the Lakers, who have a lot of cap space.

That wasn’t really a Kawhi story. It was an optionality story. The Kawhi trade simply opened the most doors.

Then Thursday happened. Seeing Jimmy next to Joe changed how I think about that branch:

Could the Warriors still trade Jimmy this summer? Of course. Nothing in the collective bargaining agreement prevents it, but organizations send signals. Introducing your brand-new jersey patch sponsor with Jimmy sitting beside your owner sends one.

From a business standpoint, it would create awkward optics to feature Jimmy as part of the franchise’s public face only to move him a couple weeks later when free agency begins. That doesn’t make a trade impossible, though, especially in a world where Luka Dončić got traded.

It just makes me think the probability dropped dramatically. The Kawhi branch of the decision tree suddenly looks much smaller.

Maybe it isn’t gone forever. Maybe it simply gets postponed until February. Cue the Jaylen Brown trade scenarios — which, indeed, we have talked about, especially towards the end of our Pr-Draft Livestream Special back on Monday, June 22:

Why does this IREN sponsor event matter? Because once Jimmy stays, the Warriors lose their cleanest path toward getting below the luxury tax. That also means the NTMLE becomes extraordinarily difficult to access.

And it was this morning when Bobby Marks of ESPN finally blessed my conclusion, saying:

Because of the first apron hard cap, it is unlikely Golden State can use the $15 million non-tax midlevel exception and still have flexibility to remain under once the roster is filled out.

However, I have a feeling that little paragraph still might get glossed over. We’ll see, because dutifully, Marks made a list of potential free agents that might fit the Warriors after that paragraph and those might get taken out context if the assumption is via the NTMLE.

I’ve seen plenty of discussion suggesting the Warriors can simply use the NTMLE. The spreadsheet says otherwise.

To reach that point, you’d essentially have to renounce Porziņģis—or ask both Kristaps and Draymond to accept discounts that I simply don’t believe are realistic (KP to roughly $12 million and Dray to $17 million).

This was shown step-by-step here on my last video:

That’s asking KP to slash his market value while simultaneously asking Draymond to take a massive pay cut.

Possible? Technically. Likely? Not in my opinion.

This is where I think fans and salary-cap mechanics often diverge. Many discussions begin with: “Do we even want Porziņģis back?” That’s almost the wrong question.

The better question is: “Do you want to preserve a $20-plus million salary slot?” Because once you renounce Porziņģis, that slot disappears.

Now you’re shopping with exceptions instead of contracts. That’s a very different toolbox. Keeping KP isn’t necessarily about keeping KP forever. It’s about preserving optionality.

Only a couple more days to go! Everything now circles back to June 29. Draymond’s player option has become the biggest remaining domino. If he simply opts in, most of the Warriors’ offseason becomes fairly straightforward:

1. Re-sign Porziņģis, operate above the tax,

2. use the Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception (TPMLE), and

3. keep building from there.

If Draymond instead opts out and signs a longer extension with a smaller first-year cap hit, suddenly new branches reopen. That’s where names like LeBron become mathematically interesting.

Not because LeBron would sign for the TPMLE (roughly $6 million). He almost certainly wouldn’t. Instead, the conversation shifts toward a sign-and-trade involving Porziņģis, but even there, the first apron becomes the limiting factor.

The Warriors can’t simply absorb any salary they want. Everything has to fit.

As I worked through Thursday’s livestreams, three names kept resurfacing:

1. Bron — If Draymond accepted a lower first-year salary, the Lakers might have interest in Porziņģis as a frontcourt piece alongside Doncic, giving the Warriors a plausible sign-and-trade framework.

2. DeMar DeRozan — Unlike LeBron, DeRozan could potentially be acquired more directly through a Porziņģis trade if Sacramento viewed Kristaps as a better roster fit. Credit our long-time YouTube commenter Robby Bautista for this idea. I think I would rather keep KP, though.

3. Anfernee Simons — While the Dubs do have a glaring need for a ball-handler who can get downhill and get a bucket, this one becomes much harder. It’s not enough for the Warriors to want Simons. Chicago would also have to decide that receiving Porziņģis in a sign-and-trade is preferable to every other offer available around the league. That’s a much tougher sell.

4. Collin Sexton — Sexton ironically ended up a teammate of Simons on the Bulls at the February trade deadline. Simons has made more money in his career, but the Warriors might prefer Sexton’s better defense. Again, it all depends on if the Bulls have better sign-and-trade offers than Porzingis.

That’s ultimately what Thursday taught me. One piece of information quietly eliminated one of the cleanest pathways through the Warriors’ cap sheet: Jimmy isn’t getting traded this off-season.

The decision tree became smaller. Now, almost every remaining branch runs through June 29. We’ll know much more once Draymond “makes his decision”, although I would be shocked if he and Mike Dunleavy, Jr. have not worked through their own spreadsheets as I have. Until I am presented with evidence otherwise, I am of the firm belief that opt-ins or opt-outs are usually mutually agreed upon to a certain extent.

And so the math — not the rumors — should be leading the conversation.

The NTMLE needs to be tweeted about with caution, my friends!

Below the paywall 👇 is my projected cap sheet for 1) if Draymond opts in, or 2) if Draymond opts out — as well as a couple tidbits on Quinten Post, Charles Bassey and Pat Spencer.

🫶💙💛

Read more

The Warriors drafted Yaxel Lendeborg with the 11th overall pick and while most of the discussion immediately turned to his versatility, defense and playmaking, I came away from his first interview as a Warrior thinking about something else: his personality.

Over the last few months, I’ve watched a lot of prospects go through the pre-Draft process. Most of them are polished. Most of them say the right things. Yaxel feels different.

One of the reasons I became such a believer in him during the Draft process is that he consistently gave honest answers, even when those answers weren’t necessarily the safest ones.

That continued Thursday night. Sure, the one about Wardell Stephen Curry II went viral, but he also said this about the impending Michigan-Michigan State tug-of-war that’s about to happen behind closed doors between him and Draymond Green:

I know he’s a Michigan State guy, so it’s not really— I’m not really too, not too fond of that, but I’m definitely excited to be able to meet him, speak to him in person and learn, just learn everything I can…

I only been there for one year, but I definitely hate those guys [Michigan State]. All that they were saying, and they can’t really say much because I went 2-0 against them this year, so they’re gonna be little brother for me forever and I’m not gonna represent the losers, ever.

As for the question about Steph, in case you missed it on social media, Yaxel admitted something that Warriors fans probably never expected to hear from their newest first-round pick.

Back in 2016, he hated Steph.

Not because of anything personal. He was a huge Kyrie Irving fan and, like a lot of young basketball fans at the time, he found himself rooting against the Warriors dynasty. Now he’ll be learning directly from Curry every day.

That alone made for a funny full-circle moment, but there were other moments that stood out even more. When asked what kept him going through the years when his basketball future wasn’t guaranteed, he didn’t talk about rankings, trainers or personal ambition. He talked about his mother.

Yaxel said there were many times he wanted to quit, but he always thought about how his mother would feel if he gave up. It was another reminder that his path to the NBA wasn’t the typical five-star journey.

Later, during a question about Men’s Mental Health Month, he spoke openly about meditation, prayer, music and learning how to replace negative self-talk with positive self-talk. I can’t wait to delve into that side of Yax more, as I myself am a practitioner of meditation and it has helped changed my life for the better.

Again, Lendeborg doesn’t exactly give standard Draft-night answers and I had been told, even before Eric Guilleminault hopped on our livestream to discuss all the faults he was hearing…

…that Yaxel doesn’t have a filter — DubNation, get used to that! I think it’s a good thing, though. The honesty.

The basketball fit is obvious. I’ve already written and spoken extensively about why I think he fits what the Warriors do offensively and defensively, but the more interviews I watch, the more I think the Warriors may have drafted someone whose mentality fits their culture just as well as his game does. He sounds like someone who genuinely believes he still has something to prove.

One other update from Draft Night: while Yaxel joked about Draymond’s No. 23 jersey being unavailable, the Warriors later announced to reporters at Chase Center, present for the Mike Dunleavy, Jr. presser, the transcript of which I will post soon, that he’ll wear No. 1 with Golden State.

The full interview is embedded below, with 40 seconds of my celebration at 6:12PM of the pick. Paid subscribers can continue below the paywall for the complete edited transcript, which includes a translation from a Spanish-speaking reporter…

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For the past few weeks, I’ve probably spent more time talking about Yaxel Lendeborg than any other prospect in this draft.

The fit with the Warriors feels obvious. He rebounds, he passes, he defends, he plays with force. He talks about getting assists before he talks about getting points. He sounds like a Steve Kerr player and a Draymond Green teammate. I even said Lendeborg could be Draymond 2.0.

So when I sat down with Eric Guilleminault of NBADraft.net, I expected to hear more confirmation of what many Warriors fans already believe. Instead, I heard the strongest argument yet for why Lendeborg may not be the pick at No. 11.

Not because Guilleminault dislikes the player. In fact, Eric G. repeatedly emphasized that he likes Yaxel’s toughness, versatility and overall fit. The issue is something else entirely.

The biggest obstacle, seemingly, is simple: Yaxel is already 23 years old. Eric G. referenced a list of first-round picks from basketball analytics guru Dean Oliver. He tweeted all the names of recent first-round picks who entered the NBA at age 23 or older. The list contained plenty of solid NBA players, but very few stars:

The argument isn’t that older prospects can’t succeed. The argument is that teams drafting in the Lottery are often chasing upside as much as current production.

If a team believes the championship window of one Wardell Stephen Curry II is only a few more years, Yaxel’s age may not matter very much. But if a team is thinking about what its roster looks like three, four or five years from now, the equation changes.

Three years from now, Yaxel will already be approaching his late twenties. That’s the concern. One point Eric G. kept returning to was that NBA teams aren’t necessarily drafting the best player today. They’re drafting the player they believe can become the best player.

That’s why younger prospects such as Nate Ament, Karim Lopez and others continue to attract attention despite being less polished. Yaxel might be the better basketball player right now, but NBA front offices are asking a different question: Who will be the better player in 2029? That question can dramatically change a draft board.

Another point Eric G. mentioned was that Yaxel apparently has not generated universal enthusiasm during the pre-Draft process, referencing concerns that have circulated regarding private team interviews and maturity evaluations from the Combine.

What are examples of those? Guilleminault said, “I'm not privy to say,” when I asked him last night on our livestream:

Importantly, these aren’t concerns about Yaxel’s production at Michigan. In fact, nearly everyone agrees that he had an outstanding season. Rather, they are the kinds of background evaluations every team conducts when deciding whether to invest a Lottery pick in a player.

Whether those concerns are meaningful or overblown — whether out of candor or purposely designed as Draft strategy smokescreens — is impossible for outsiders to know, but if multiple teams have similar questions, it could affect where he ultimately lands.

Eric G. wasn’t necessarily arguing against Yaxel, he was arguing against Yaxel at No. 11. That’s a very different discussion. Eric even suggested that if the Warriors traded down and acquired additional assets, Yaxel could become a much more logical target. The debate is whether No. 11 is the correct value.

That’s a much more nuanced position than simply saying the Warriors should pass.

I still love the fit. Yaxel’s passing, rebounding, toughness and versatility would help the Warriors immediately, but after talking with Eric, I understand the counterargument better than I did before.

Check below the paywall for additional intel that just came in this morning 👇 — these are (except one nugget) available in the free section of our Discord server.

Still, for Golden State and what’s realistic with the 11th pick, I don’t think there is a better plug-and-play talent who fits our existing roster right now than Yaxel. You need to win a game tomorrow? Then pick Yaxel.

We’ll find out soon enough whether the Warriors agree with that perspective.

Be sure to join us in the Watch Party this evening for the most twists and turns we have ever seen in an NBA Draft!

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If you've been following our recent NBA Draft coverage on Let's Go Warriors, you've probably noticed a recurring theme: I keep coming back to Yaxel Lendeborg.

The closer we get to Draft Night, the stronger that feeling becomes. A lot has happened since I first wrote about Lendeborg following his pre-Draft workout and press conference with the Warriors.

We've now gone through scouting reports on Brayden Burries, Labaron Philon, Hannes Steinbach, Chris Cenac, Morez Johnson and others. We've dug into mock drafts. We've followed reporting from Brett Siegel, Jake Fischer, Marc Stein, Michael Scotto and plenty more.

And yet, after all of that, my conclusion remains the same: If Yaxel is available at No. 11, I would pick him.

What changed since the last Yaxel article? A lot. The Warriors have continued bringing prospects through Chase Center. We’ve now heard directly from several of them. We’ve learned more about how teams ahead of Golden State may be thinking.

And perhaps most importantly, we’ve begun hearing more about potential Draft-night movement. One report that caught my attention came from Siegel of ClutchPoints, who reported that Golden State explored moving around the board and inquired about Charlotte's picks.

At first glance, that’s not surprising. Mike Dunleavy, Jr. should be exploring every possible option, but the report reinforced something I’ve been talking about for weeks: I don’t want the Warriors to trade the No. 11 pick — at least not unless the board breaks in a very specific way.

One of the themes from our Draft Primer livestreams has been that this Draft is unusually deep. The top tier gets all the headlines: AJ Dybantsa, Darren Peterson, Cameron Boozer, Caleb Wilson (not necessarily in that order, as we’ve seen speculated on our Discord server in the free “Draft-SummerLeague” text channel).

The more I look at this class, the more I think the Warriors are sitting in a sweet spot. The difference between the player available at No. 11 and the player available in the late teens might not be enormous.

The difference between having No. 11 and having nothing? That's huge. Golden State is old and this roster needs youth — impact youth. The kind of player who can help now while also bridging the gap into the next era.

That's why I've repeatedly argued that if anything, the Warriors should be trying to add another first-round pick, not subtract one.

The easiest thing to talk about is talent. Yaxel has talent. He’s 6’9” with a 7’3” wingspan. He’s built like a linebacker. He can rebound, pass, handle the ball, defend multiple positions. He runs the floor and has enough shooting upside to project into modern NBA lineups.

But talent alone isn't why I'm so high on him. The reason I keep coming back to Yaxel is the intangible side. One story in particular stands out.

When Michigan was struggling to stop Maryland guard David Coit, Yaxel reportedly decided he wanted the assignment himself. Not because a coach told him to, not because it was convenient, because he wanted the challenge.

A 6-foot-9 forward deciding to pick up a hot-shooting 5-foot-11 guard and take responsibility for changing the game? That’s the type of thing that reminds me of Draymond Green.

It’s akin to the Summer of 2012 when I attended Summer League, back when our Dubs were relegated to Cox Pavilion. The advantage with the smaller venue across the way from Thomas & Mack Center — before all the championships and popularity of the brand which has them playing on the main stage more often these days – you could hear everything. All the coaches’ barks of instructions. All the players yelling, “Switch!” on defense, and more.

You could hear Draymond go, “Uh-uh! Uh-uh!” anytime a big tried to post him up and dislodge him.

It’s the spirit, the leadership, the competitiveness, the accountability.

Those qualities are incredibly difficult to find and they're even harder to identify before Draft Night.

With Yaxel, I know they exist.

That doesn't mean I dislike the other names. Quite the opposite.

To me, Burries athleticism and footwork stand out. If Yaxel is gone and Burries somehow falls? I’d be okay with that.

Labaron Philon fascinates me. Watching him, I see flashes of Tyrese Maxey, with the burst, the array of crossovers, the creativity and ability to get paint touches.

The challenge with Philon is the fit. How does that archetype fit into one Wardell Stephen Curry II’s solar system? That's a much tougher question.

And stop it (in the YouTube comments) with the, “He’ll take over when Steph is retired.” We are not picking teams for next game at the rec center. We are integrating a young talent into the long-established culture of Golden State.

As long as Curry plays more than half the season in totality, the ecosystem will be predicated on his gravity, ball movement and off-ball cuts. That’s not Philon’s game. Now, if you were to be gung-ho about trading Steph and building around Philon, I would have more respect for picking Philon at 11, but as long as Steph is the face of the franchise, I don’t know that the 11th pick is worth spending on a Maxey archetype.

As for Hannes Steinbach, I simply don’t think his game will translate to the super-high pace of October-through-December NBA regular season basketball. Check out my scouting report on him, plus his podium interview. I do think he has a higher ceiling than Quinten Post, which should not come as a surprise, as Post was a second-rounder.

And so I land on Cameron Carr as the fall-back, although it sure would be nice to drop down a few spots and pickup additional future Draft capital in the process, which we covered as a report on the Discord server.

The newest development is OKC having an interest in moving up in the Draft, whereby Dallas and Atlanta are the likely targets, with an outside shot of the LA Clippers, per reports, again covered and now searchable on our Discord “knowledge base”.

Then today, you had the Mavs hiring away Dusty May from Michigan — don’t forget to catch our livestream tonight with Wolverines beatwriter Jake Singer of maizenbrew.com:

Oklahoma City has too many assets. That's a weird thing to say about a championship contender, but it's true. They have draft picks, young players, future draft picks, and more flexibility than almost any organization in basketball. And they just cleared out a roster spot by trading Aaron Wiggins to ATL for two future second-round picks.

And, no, the Warriors cap sheet could not allow a similar transaction, as we are too close to the second apron to absorb a contract that OKC needs to unload, and we have a huge free agent in Kristaps Porzingis waiting in the wings, not to mention the Green opt-in coming up June 29th.

So, reports continue to suggest Dallas could be open to moving down from No. 9. If that's true, OKC becomes extremely dangerous because they have the ammunition to move.

And if they move, one of the players who makes a lot of sense for them is... Yaxel Lendeborg. Of course, Aday Mara also makes sense, but certainly the Mavs have some overlaps at the power forward and center spots, so we’ll see.

The Thunder are one of the teams that worries me most heading into Draft Night, not to mention the Mavs, now that May is likely to help them draft one of Lendeborg or Mara — Johnson, Jr. might be a high price to pick at 11.

Why The Discord Matters More During Draft Week

This is probably the busiest week of the year for our Discord. You’ve got both rounds of the Draft, the opt-in dates, free agency, the California Classic and Vegas Summer League. Everything starts happening at once.

One of the reasons I've spent so much time building the Discord is because I wanted something different from social media.

Twitter is great for breaking news. It's terrible as a library. A report gets posted, people argue, then it disappears.

The Discord is organized, searchable, and categorized. If someone asks where a rumor came from, we can actually find it. If someone asks what was reported two weeks ago, we can actually find it.

That becomes especially valuable this time of year.

The next few days are going to be busy. We already had Eric Guilleminault from NBADraft.net joining us again and Jake Singer of Maize & Brew joining us to discuss Michigan prospects including Yaxel, Morez and Mara, plus insights on Coach May.

We'll continue breaking down the latest rumors, and then we'll have our 7th Annual NBA Draft Watch Party. Maybe the Warriors stay at No. 11, maybe they trade down, maybe they acquire another first-round pick.

Or, maybe OKC ruins all my plans. We'll find out soon enough, but if you're asking me today, with everything we've learned over the past few weeks, my board remains pretty simple:

1. Yaxel Lendeborg

2. Brayden Burries

3. Cameron Carr (via trade down)

4. Trade down and just pick BPA (“best player available” — we will get someone solid in this deep Draft)

Hope you caught my Yaxel video as to the deeper reason for picking him 😉 (timestamped, if you’re lazy or pressed for time).

Man, Draft night is gonna be epic and Wednesday night we can start imagining the fit of our Draft pick!

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If you’re an NBA Draft aficionado, the most interesting thing Yaxel Lendeborg said during Thursday’s Warriors pre-Draft media session wasn’t about being a “secondary ball-handler” to one Wardell Steph Curry II.

It wasn't about comparisons to Draymond Green. And it wasn’t even about why he believes his game fits Golden State.

It was what workouts he has left.

“I have the Clippers and the Hawks and I'm done,” said Lendeborg, apparently only “two minutes” (plus about ten minutes on the podium) after finishing his with the Warriors.

At first glance, that sounds like a routine Draft process answer, but the more I thought about it, the more interesting it became.

Lendeborg revealed his workout list:

• Oklahoma City

• Miami

• Chicago

• Milwaukee

• Charlotte

• Dallas

• Golden State

• LA Clippers (upcoming)

• Atlanta (upcoming)

With workouts scheduled with teams owning the 8th through 15th picks in the 2026 NBA Draft, why is the No. 5 team, the Clippers, looking at Yaxel?

Indeed, with their trade for Darius Garland and four marquee points guards projected to be picked between 5th and 10th, eyeing a move down should come as no surprise for LAC.

Makes you wonder who is thinking about moving up. My guesses are either Milwaukee at 10 or Dallas at 9. NBA Draft season is all about connecting dots and this should be one of the most intriguing Drafts in recent memory.

Be sure to join us on both Draft Nights for livestream watch parties. The link will eventually post in our NBA Draft playlist.

Actually, we’ve also got Eric Guilleminault of NBADraft.net scheduled for Monday, June 22nd, the night before the Draft — he’ll be too swamped on Draft Night itself to join us.

But yeah, I had other takeaways from Lendeborg’s Q&A, too. Remember, I said back on March 30th during the Final Four that he would be “perfect” for the Warriors:

Yaxel and I seem to be thinking on the same wavelength because when asked about Golden State, his reasoning wasn't complicated. He immediately referenced Curry’s gravity and off-ball movement.

“I think it fits perfectly,” said Lendeborg.

And by the way, that’s how the Michigan Wolverines played this season, as Steve Kornacki wrote on his Substack, The Wolverine Report:

The Kornacki Wolverine Report

Lendeborg, aka 'Dominican LeBron,' carried Wolverines to Sweet 16 by Dominating Saint Louis with 25 Points

Photos Courtesy of University of Michigan Photography…

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6 months ago · 4 likes · 3 comments · Steve Kornacki

“I think he’s done an unbelievable job of giving what the game has given him and playing smart, practical basketball all year,” said (Dusty) May. “That’s not easy to do to play two different styles and especially learning a new system. We play in flow 90 percent of the game. We call [plays] out of timeouts. Other than that, our guys are playing off of each other. For him to go from a set offense, 1-3-1 defensive team to a switching man and a free-flowing offense, he’s had to learn a lot, and he’s had to be two different people for us.”

Incidentally, I found this tidbit while looking up another tidbit, see transcript below: Yaxel got the nickname “Dominican LeBron” from his teammate LJ Cason.

I also liked how Lendeborg referenced “getting five assists” in the Warriors’ system — much more preferred than, say, 30 points?

“Whenever Steph is getting taken out the game I'll be there to assist,” added Lendeborg.

That answer felt important. The Warriors have spent years searching for players who can connect possessions, move the ball, defend multiple positions and keep the offense flowing when Curry sits. Whether he becomes that player remains to be seen, but he clearly understands the role.

Finally, my favorite answer of the entire session wasn't about basketball. When asked what he wanted teams to learn about him during interviews, he said, “I'm a very real, honest guy.”

That tracks. This is the same player who openly discussed crying in the medical tent after suffering his Final Four knee injury [again, see transcript below].

The same player who admitted yesterday that he was probably only operating at “40 or 50 percent” during Michigan's championship run, who admitted to a national audience at halftime in a Final Four game that he could not contribute to his fullest.

The honesty feels genuine and, frankly, it reminds me a little bit of how Draymond has always bonded with people inside the Warriors organization — well, other than that one time with the punch, of course, although the problem with that was mainly because it became public (fights happen all the time at practice, if you’ve ever been on a basketball team).

BONUS TIDBIT: I have more intel on Lendeborg coming up soon. It is also comforting to know that Warriors bear writer Danny Emerman of the SF Standard agrees that Yaxel is the guy.

We will be at the edge of our seats on Draft Night, whether or not Lendeborg is taken before the 11th pick.

This is precisely the reason why the Warriors should not trade the pick out. As I have said on the YouTube channel, if there’s a trade involving a draft pick to be made, it should be for an additional first-round pick:

There are other names DubNation seems to like that make sense, who seem to be falling in recent mocks: Karim Lopez, Cameron Carr, Hannes Steinbach, Aday Mara, Labaron Philon and more. It is a deep Draft and the Warriors roster needs to get younger.

So, go get a second first-rounder!

The idea of trading the 11th pick for two lower first-rounders would likely take Yaxel out of the equation, plus there are only two possibilities: OKC at 12 and 17, and Charlotte at 14 and 18.

I do not see a good reason for OKC to simply move up one spot to 11 at the cost of the 17th pick.

For Charlotte, they already have high picks on their roster pecking order like LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller and Kon Knueppel. They have a couple open salary slots, so there is no urgency to reduce their picks to move up just three spots on the Draft board. Building a team with two more solid rookie scale contracts in a deep Draft makes more sense for the Hornets.

I don’t see a realistic “trade down” scenario for the Warriors.

The full transcript from Lendeborg's pre-Draft workout media session is available below for paid subscribers. It will be opened up to all subscribers next week.

00:00 Hey, over here. Joseph Dycus, Mercury News. Just wondering, what are you hoping to show the Warriors’ coaching staff today?

00:07 Moreso like my versatility. I can bring a lot of different things to the game and just being able to play multiple positions for these guys and do whatever I’m needed to do to win, so.

00:17 How do you see your skill? How would you see your skill set possibly fitting into this team as a passer?

00:23 I think it fits perfectly. They do a lot of them, like off ball moving sets, a lot of actions, get Steph open and playing off his gravity will make it a lot easier for me to make reads and for the other guys to get open as well, so I think it’ll be perfect.

00:35 What has this pre-draft process been like for you in terms of where you’ve gone, some of the workouts you’ve done so far?

00:42 Man, it’s been very, very tough. Not many days for breaks or rests. I don’t think I’ve gotten a day off yet, but it’s very fun. You get to learn a lot of new things, meet a lot of new people and just learn pretty much the way you’re gonna be living next year, so it’s all a learning point for me and a lot of good points, bad points, still, but a lot of learning.

01:02 And just to be clear, did you already go through your workout here today, or is that to come?

01:05 Yeah, I just finished like two minutes ago.

01:07 How did it go and what are some of the things they had you do?

01:10 It was fun. It was really, really, competitive. The guys there really, really played hard. It was a lot of like just playing off of actions, moving, a lot of 3-on-3, 1-on-1, stuff like that, so I mean, it was very competitive, very fun.

01:23 A lot of people call you a plug-and-play type of prospect. Where do you think you can make the biggest impact from Day One as a rookie?

01:29 Oh, I would say, like, five assists a game, maybe, to start off. Just a lot of defense, fast break kind of bucket opportunities for me and depending on if I’m here or anywhere else, my role would be a lot different. But if I was here, I would be more like a secondary ball-handler, whenever Steph is getting taken out the game I’ll be there to assist, maybe provide a little bit more offense or instant offense in a way.

01:51 You have kind of a unique journey to this point, obviously. How do you think that it’s helped prepare you to this moment?

01:57 Well, just my toughness, mental toughness, as well. It’s been a very long, long journey for me as far as just being willing and able to play as hard as I do now and thinking that I belong on the court with some of these guys, so I feel like every game I get, I have to showcase my skill set, show that I do belong and continue to just prove that I’m better than what I was before.

02:20 You have a winning pedigree after winning that championship with Michigan. How do you feel like that’s also gonna help you in your career moving, especially in your rookie year?

02:27 A lot of people like winners, so me being in the position that I was this past year, it just showcased that, me, I’m willing to put aside any stat or anything about myself to win. Same thing so, I mean, being in a winning culture, winning program shows you a lot of different things that you have to do, not just as far as sacrifices, but just as far as, like, everyday living, to bring a spark and bring kinda good energy to the squad.

02:51 Going off that, obviously, you’re an older prospect. I’m sure you’ve heard a lot about that narrative, but being a guy who won a lot in college and looking at guys like Brunson and Hart who are now on the cusp of a title and won as well in college, does that help you at all, knowing that it’s possible and there’s a path to clearly being an older prospect and having that success in the league?

03:11 Yeah, absolutely. If you can play, you can play. A lot of these younger prospects just been in the spotlight a little bit longer than I was, been playing since they were younger. So, I mean, everybody’s path is different and every time I get on the court, I’m gonna showcase that, you know? So whether it’s a guy that’s 30 or a guy that’s 18, I’m gonna go out there and show who’s better.

03:29 Just going back to the pre-draft process here, I mean, obviously fans and media love all the mock drafts and things. Is that something that ever comes into your radar, these mock drafts when you see that a team like Golden State might be interested or do you try and put all that aside?

03:43 Yeah, I kinda get tagged in those mock drafts every single day, so I can’t stay away from it no matter what, you know? And in a way, it kinda makes me envision myself playing on, like, a team like this, the Thunder, the Heat, Charlotte, all those teams that I’m getting a mock to go to. So, I mean, it kinda gives me something to get, like, attached to. So I can’t get too attached, though, because maybe on Draft night I won’t get picked by either of them. I’m gonna be upset, you know? But, either way, it is nice to see that and it’s a blessing to be a part of it, so.

04:12 What is the biggest thing you wanted to get across in the interview itself?

04:17 Biggest thing, I would probably just say, like, just my personality, how I am. I’m a very real, honest guy and a guy who likes goofing off a lot, so just showing my authentic self is something I always wanna showcase.

04:28 A lot of guys get, even after they made the team, they sit there and they start talking about what it would be like to play with Steph and to be around him. For you, having watched him growing up, what would that be like if everything falls and you get drafted here?

04:44 Man, it’ll be amazing. He provides so much gravity on the court that it really makes it super-easy for other guys to score, other guys to just showcase any ability that they have, so I’ve been having so many arguments going against Steph when I was younger with my best friend. And now, like, if I would be able to play with him, it’ll be kind of funny being on the other end, but I’ll be very excited to get the opportunity. He’s a great player. Great, great human being, as well. I got to meet him about, like, twice, so it’s really nice and I feel like I would learn a lot playing with him, as well.

05:12 When did you meet Steph those couple times?

05:14 Well, today, and then I met him when they played against the Clippers in the Play-in game, so those two times it was quick, brief conversations, but you can just tell he’s a genuine human being and actually cares for, like, the younger guys in a way.

05:26 And we talked a little bit about how you were a little bit later to basketball. Given that, like, how much more upside do you think you have to grow into even though you’re an older prospect?

05:36 Yeah, I think I have just as much as anybody else in this Draft. I really don’t like the word “upside” in a way because it’s, like, it’s basically just like, “Oh, this guy can be better” or not, or, “Will he be better?” It’s like if you’re better now, you can continue to try to get better every single day, but as far as upside, if we wanna use that word, I think I have the same amount as everybody, yeah.

05:57 What is something you would like to improve upon, once you hit the NBA? What’s something you would like to get better at?

06:02 I would like my defensive versatility, for sure, I gotta get a lot more fluid in my, like, my change of pace and just, like, my stance gotta be a lot more stronger, base wider, stuff like that, you know? So I mean, that’s my main key. And then second would be just a consistent three-point shot. I came a long way as far as the last three years of shooting the ball, so hopefully I can keep improving.

06:21 Whose game do you maybe compare yourself to or watch, as you go through this process?

06:25 I have three to four people. One is Paolo (Banchero). I’ve always tried to mimic his game. Naz Reid, as well, in a way. I try to mimic some of LeBron’s drives, how physical he is and how he uses his body, when to use it, stuff like that. And somebody I still watch to this day, like, just highlights, is Magic Johnson, but yeah, those guys are — I learn every, like, a lot of different things, like, little pieces from each player.

06:47 Do you like the Dominican LeBron nickname?

06:49 I do. Yeah, I really do. I really do. Yeah. It was really fun being able to try to keep that, like, legacy in a way, but yeah, it was very fun to have that, yeah.

06:58 And just your versatility has stood out, obviously, throughout your college career. What position do you maybe feel the most comfortable at?

07:05 I would say small forward. Obviously, I have to get my three-point shot way more consistent because the small forwards in this league are very lethal, so once I get that down, I think I’ll be perfectly fit in small forward.

07:16 To Dalton (Johnson)’s point, you’ve been actually comped to Draymond Green in a lot of ways. Do you see similarities in your games with him and how would you kinda see you fitting next to him, if you were to come to the Warriors?

07:26 Yeah, I do see some similarities. He’s a win guy, “win-all” guy, you can say, and he’s a connector for the squad. He makes the right read a majority of the time. He plays super-hard on defense, willing to take on the best player on the other squad, so I definitely feel like I have a lot of similarities just as far as that. And, like, if I play alongside him, again, just a lot of learning. He’s won many rings. He’s been in many, many tough situations where he has to step up his game and it’ll be a very, very, like, good vet to have by your side.

07:55 Can a Michigan and a Michigan State guy co-exist?

07:58 I don’t think so. I don’t know if he was too fond of me this year because we beat Michigan State twice, but it would be nice to see if we could.

08:05 Do we have any questions on Zoom?

08:20 Yes, Yaxel. I was curious about the number of workouts as far as — I feel like it’s been every day for you. Who have you worked out with so far besides, obviously, Golden State.

08:21 I worked out for Oklahoma, Miami, Chicago, Milwaukee, Charlotte, Dallas, and then the Warriors.

08:26 And who do you have left? You got any more left?

08:30 I have the Clippers and the Hawks and I’m done.

08:45 Quick follow. What was interesting about these workouts was you were running into these faces that you’ve seen before, like, maybe you played against in college. Obviously, today you saw some familiar faces. What was that like, seeing guys that you competed against and now you’re in the workout with them , in essence competing to get the attention of teams?

08:53 Yeah, it’s fun. It’s fun being able to compete with such high-level guys. I try not to, like, keep the hatred that I had for those guys that I played against during the season, but it’s really nice being able to switch it and learn about those other guys and just go out there and compete, so it’s very, very nice.

09:09 Thank you, sir.

09:10 Yes, sir.

09:18 Last time we saw you play in the Final Four, championship, you were dealing with a knee issues, with —

09:22 One second, Jake.

09:23 How tough was that and how long did it take you to get fully healthy?

09:23 Man, it was very, very tough, mentally, when it happened. I went into the tent and I was crying for a good five to ten minutes just trying to say to myself that it’s not over. It felt like it was, so I was very, very emotional about it. But the next day I felt very, very bad, man. When I played I felt like 40, 50% maybe at most, but it was very, very tough mentally.

09:42 And then the last one from Jake Singer.

09:46 Hey, Yaxel.

09:47 Hello.

09:47 Coming off the national championship, it was a very quick turnaround to go right into the NBA Draft process. Given how long you guys have played for, have you been able to enjoy the championship with your teammates and really soak that in yet, or is that gonna happen after the NBA Draft when you finally have a few months to decompress?

10:03 Man, when we won the championship, it didn’t feel real for a good, like, month maybe. So our celebration was kind of the parade and the ceremony we had with some of the fans. So I mean, I would count that celebrating, in a way. We didn’t really milk it like I’ve seen many people do it, but, it was very fun. Very, very fun. We had a lot of good conversations about the season memories, spoke a lot about what we saw, what we did, but I think next year we’re gonna have the ring ceremony, the banner ceremony. And I think that’s when we’ll, like, truly get to celebrate it.

10:35 All right. Thank you.

10:36 Yeah. Thank you, guys. Yes, sir.

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Potential Stan Wars on social media aside, which quite frankly do not matter IRL, the Golden State Warriors should absolutely be interested in LeBron James especially if you saw his performance for the LA Lakers in the playoffs.

If you’re on our Discord server, you already know that Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints has reported James will meet with one Wardell Stephen Curry II soon.

Meanwhile, Tim Kawakami of the SF Standard, Kevin O’Connor of Yahoo Sports and Sam Quinn of CBS Sports (co-host of The Third Apron with cap expert Yossi Gozlan) all agree that LeBron is definitely in play for the Warriors.

Obviously, Mike Dunleavy, Jr. and Joe Lacob will investigate every possible avenue to improve the roster. It’s just common sense.

But the hidden problem is how people are assuming the Warriors would acquire him. As far as I know, everyone has said that the path to acquiring James is the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception (NTMLE).

I won’t bore you with the details of how that works, but it is a way for teams that are below the luxury tax line to sign a free agent (or two), basically cap space relief worth up to roughly $15 million — as long as you stay below the first apron, which is about $9 million above that luxury tax line.

In case you didn’t know, the GSW payroll easily blew past the first apron last season, largely because the salaries of Moses Moody and Jonathan Kuminga shot upwards from their rookie baselines, as is allowed in the current Collective Bargaining Agreement — the Warriors were under the second apron, though.

Unlike the Warriors, most NBA teams are not paying the luxury tax, therefore the NTMLE is referred to as a convenient and easy way to value a certain substrate of available free agents. In fact, the NTMLE is often referred to merely as “the mid-level”, just removing the extra words denoting its “non-taxpayer” etymology.

So, I can see why reporters often toss around the mid-level exception as something that’s usually doable.

Based on my own spreadsheet calculations of the Warriors’ salary cap situation, I am here to say that the mid-level exception is not a magic wand.

The logic sounds simple enough:

1. Get under the luxury tax,

2. Open the NTMLE, then

3. Sign James.

The problem is that the first step is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence. Getting under the luxury tax is not a minor maneuver. It’s the entire challenge.

Depending on how the Warriors handle Kristaps Porziņģis and Draymond Green, their payroll can easily approach $220 million, which is just below the second apron where you would want to be, to avoid harsh penalties such as freezing future picks at the end of the first round.

The luxury tax line is roughly $200 million. That means the Warriors would need to shed approximately $20 million before they could even begin discussing the NTMLE. That’s the part of the conversation that often gets skipped.

The easiest way to get under the tax would be to renounce free agent Porziņģis. On paper, that sounds straightforward. In practice, it is a significant decision.

When you renounce a free agent, you are not simply removing a player from the roster. You are surrendering the salary slot associated with that player. That salary slot can be an asset, as it can be used in sign-and-trade scenarios or future roster construction.

Maximizing a roster slot preserves flexibility that may prove more valuable than simply creating room for a mid-level signing, such as aggregating salaries to acquire a more expensive star player.

Could the Warriors decide that LeBron is worth sacrificing Kristaps? Sure, but that is very different from saying, “Make some maneuvers and use the NTMLE.”

Tomorrow, I’ll go over what the grand plan should be when it comes to acquiring LeBron, which in and of itself the Warriors should only do as one of a series of moves, not the only move.

The grand plan includes trading for Kawhi Leonard and, at that point, Bron makes sense to me.

There may also be some competition for James. The Lakers could find a way to bring him back and, in a video with esteemed Lakers journalists Anthony Irwin and Harrison Faigen, cap expert Gozlan found a path to pay LeBron $24 million to return to LA.

James made over $50 million last year. That’s a pay cut of over 50%. Getting a contract at the NTMLE level would then seem like a slap in the face to LeBron’s camp as long as there are realistic pathways to something substantially higher than that (returning to the Lakers for $24 million).

We should do better than just the NTMLE.

Side note: I have been told by a trusted insider that LeBron is not going back to the Lakers, but I am still using that $24 million figure as a benchmark. It is just safer when guessing what the market will do.

That’s why in my mock off-season for the Warriors, I have them signing-and-trading Porzingis for LeBron, at that same $24 million figure — a number which can be brought down depending on a new contract with Green, assuming he opts out. That also gives the Lakers an asset and salary slot rather than just allowing James to walk and getting nothing in return.

The good news for GSW? Bron and Dray, of course, are both part of the family over there at Klutch Sports and share Rich Paul as their agent, so they can all hash their respective salaries out together.

My calculations tell me the two players have cap space of $40 million to figure out between themselves if Kawhi is traded for Jimmy Butler and Brandin Podziemski (and two first-round picks, as I will explain in a separate post, see the Comments for the eventual link).

There are other factors in play. What do the Lakers want to pay Porzingis, if they are interested at all? What other offers are out there for KP? I would assume likely not that many.

I actually presented this plan back on May 3rd on our YouTube channel:

Since then there have been a few tweaks, even significant tweaks, but Kawhi as the crown jewel still remains the primary pursuit, which again will be discussed next on this Substack.

Ironically, sending out Butler and Podziemski reduces the Warriors’ salaries by more than $10 million and, combined with Draymond’s opt-out and new smaller salary, sheds that $20 million and gets the Dubs under the luxury tax line, enabling that NTMLE.

But based on these salary slots for Dray ($16 million) and KP-or-Bron ($24 million), it only leaves $13 million for NTMLE usage to stay under the first apron, not the full $15 million that’s allowed.

I don’t think we are getting Bron at $13 million. That’s way too steep of a pay cut.

So is there a way for Golden State to keep KP and acquire LeBron?

Even if every GM agreed not to use their NTMLE on LeBron and the Warriors went ahead and got Bron with the full $15 million NTMLE, as well as made the Kawhi trade (remember, doing so reduces salary!) and kept Porzingis, thereby still getting under the luxury tax, you could only pay Kristaps a maximum of $19 million if Dray agreed to the steepest of salary cuts to $16 million.

I should say, aesthetically I’m not sure KP on the floor with Bron at the same time makes sense, either. Porzingis’ strength is the high post at the top of the circle and work from there, whereas Bron can fit into the gravity movement system of Steph while at the same time, post up in the mid-block if things get hairy.

So, I guess you can force feed me a scenario where Bron was obtained at the $15 million full mid-level while retaining KP and Draymond together earning $35 million in total — I just don’t see all that happening.

Also, doing it that way ruins my latest idea: trading a future pick plus a swap for one of OKC or Charlotte’s two first-round 2026 picks. The Warriors would need the extra wiggle room to take on the salary of that new pick. There’s zero wiggle if you’re trading for Kawhi, keeping Porzingis, and adding LeBron.

I’d even say getting a second 2026 first-round pick should be the No. 1 priority, even ahead of Kawhi. I’ll do a cap sheet analysis on the YouTube channel soon for next summer’s salary concerns and you’ll see why.

The spreadsheets for 2026-27 are telling me the ways to get LeBron using the NTMLE seem far-fetched, but I remain humble and open to the possibility that I may have missed something.

And one last thing: the above is very hard to explain in words, although I do see the value in at least attempting to document all this. That’s why it has taken me more than a month to put my Kawhi on idea on paper, here.

I will post the final cap sheet with Kawhi on it in the forthcoming article. This one, I just wanted to kind of temper the expectations of getting LeBron with a NTMLE.

Come to my video essays and upcoming livestreams on YouTube and let’s play around with the spreadsheets together.

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When Zaza Pachulia recently revealed that he was the only person at the Warriors’ coaches retreat [video clip below the paywall 👇] who believed the Spurs would become contenders, my first reaction was probably the same as yours: How could he be the only one?

But the more I thought about it, the less surprising it became because seeing change coming is one thing, acting on it is something entirely different.

The last two games I watched told the same story. One was the Spurs losing Game 2 of the NBA Finals to the Knicks. The other was the Valkyries falling to the Aces — different leagues, different levels of experience, different expectations, but same lesson: development does not happen on demand.

Watching Victor Wembanyama against New York, I found myself thinking about how easy it is for fans to assume greatness arrives all at once. Wembanyama finished with numbers that many players would celebrate, but the game itself told a different story.

Karl-Anthony Towns repeatedly imposed himself physically on the Spurs. He attacked the paint. He absorbed contact. He established territory.

Meanwhile, Wemby often settled. He drifted to jump shots. He deferred possessions. He threw away opportunities to impose himself physically against a Knicks team that was daring him to do exactly that.

That doesn’t mean Wembanyama isn’t great. It means he’s 22.

People forget that Michael Jordan had to learn how to beat the Pistons. The talent was already there. The athleticism was already there. The skill was already there. The maturity wasn’t.

The understanding of when to use finesse and when to use force took years to develop.

That’s not criticism. That’s the process.

The same thing is happening with the Valkyries. A couple of losses to the veteran Aces have suddenly shifted the conversation. Now everybody wants a roster move, or play Justė Jocytė more, or install more actions, or run more weakside cuts, or create a bigger playbook.

Those ideas sound reasonable until you remember one thing: The Valkyries are an expansion team. What Natalie Nakase and her staff have accomplished already is establishing an identity.

That identity is not perfect, but it exists. The Valkyries defend. They compete. They generate threes and can force them, yes, but they also trust Veronica Burton and Gabby Williams to create advantages, sometimes out of necessity-bordering-on-desperation. At least there is a foundation.

One of the most interesting sequences of the Aces game came on a Jackie Young three. The play itself was beautiful, A’ja Wilson operating as a hub, split cut by Chelsea Gray, turn around and stick her derriere out for a second split cut by Young, all with the real threat of Wilson popping the middy up top. [NOTE: see clip beneath the paywall 👇]

Perfect timing, perfect spacing, open shot as Young curled around wven more action off-ball after the cut.

Fans watch that and immediately ask: “Why don’t the Valkyries run that?”

Because it took years to build. The Aces didn’t wake up one morning and install an elite offensive system, they developed it, they practiced it, they refined it, they learned it through mistakes. Then they repeated it thousands of times.

Basketball fans often treat systems like downloadable software, as if coaches can simply install version 2.0 overnight. Real life doesn’t work that way. Every new wrinkle requires practice time. Every new action requires repetition. Every adjustment requires players learning exactly where they’re supposed to be. And practice time is one of the rarest resources in professional basketball.

This is where I think Warriors fans can relate. Last season, the Warriors opened against Denver and looked fine. Then came a series of younger, faster teams: Portland, Indiana, Milwaukee, Orlando. Suddenly the cracks appeared.

The reaction from fans was immediate. Change this, trade that, bench him, start him, play younger, play faster. But organizations aren’t speedboats. They’re cargo ships.

They spend an entire training camp building an identity. They spend months reinforcing it. Changing direction takes time.

That’s why I found it fascinating when Pachulia recently revealed that he was the lone voice at the Warriors’ coaching retreat warning about San Antonio’s rise. The Spurs didn’t become dangerous overnight. Some people simply recognized the trend before others did.

The hardest skill in sports is patience. Fans want immediate answers because immediate answers feel satisfying, but basketball keeps teaching the same lesson, whether it’s Wemby learning how to dominate physically, Nakase building an expansion franchise, or the Warriors trying to adapt to a younger, faster league.

When I first covered the Dubs full-time over at the Oakland facility, Mark Jackson would almost always give as the answer to a tough, perhaps critical question: “It’s just part of the process.”

Yes, we beat reporters got tired of that and nary a writer put those six words in their articles, but you know what? Despite the stubbornness borne out of a long 17-year career that included epic playoff runs with the Knicks and Pacers, he was right.

And that helped reinforce why I kept showing up every afternoon, popping out of the 12th Street BART station and heading up to the fifth floor for Warriors practice.

You gotta fall in love with the process.

That is what they mean when they say for the love of the game.

[Under the paywall: two clips of Zaza, including announcing on-air with ABC7’s Larry Beil and Adonal Foyle that his sons received D-1 scholarships that day. 👇]

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A little online research will reveal to you that Dwyane Wade’s contract with Li-Ning is believed to be $10 million per year for ten years, plus an equity stake. That puts one Wardell Stephen Curry II at four times that value with his new Li-Ning deal at $400 million (per Shams Charania of ESPN).

Also, shame on you if you believed that $1.9 billion fake tweet garbage! 😂

I think we can assume there is similarly an equity stake from Li-Ning for Curry, as well, although to my knowledge there has not yet been a report to confirm or deny that. He certainly had one with Under Armour, as its poor performance on Wall Street recently ultimately led to Steph severing the partnership with UA.

I’ve been told by sneakerhead sources in China — similar, but not the same as the one who broke the news to me years ago that Curry would have his own brand — that Li-Ning, ANTA and Nike all had submitted offers to Steph.

Li-Ning came back around one more time and increased theirs. It was still not as much as Anta and Nike’s, as Charania confirmed Curry “passed on more money from another company” in this podcast segment with Tracy McGrady:

Li-Ning is well-respected by diehard basketball performance aficionados for its innovative design and feel. I’ve been told that, other than the Kai series led by Kyrie Irving, ANTA’s basketball products “can’t compare” to Li-Ning at this point.

My own experience with the Klay Thompson’s signature “KT” line would also seem to confirm that, as I always found those shoes to be bulky to walk around in, let alone play basketball, albeit very original in its design and actually rather unique and eye-pleasing, overall.

But… clunky, indeed. Thompson was never really of the ankle-breaker archetype of basketball player, though. You can get away with wearing stiff shoes if you are just going from Point A to B, where B = catch-and-shoot.

Still, when news broke that Steph had signed a massive new deal with Li-Ning, my first reaction wasn’t surprise that he chose a Chinese brand.

My surprise was that he chose Li-Ning instead of Anta, whose market capitalization, global revenue, brand reputation as a result of recent acquisitions of Puma and Wilson, and sheer number of retail stores across China actually dwarf that of Li-Ning.

But it “was not about the money,” my source said.

If you’ve followed the basketball shoe industry at all, you know that Anta is a giant. Their footprint is enormous and they already have an impressive roster of NBA athletes, including quite famously former Splash Brother Klay. On paper, Anta looked like a natural landing spot for Curry.

But the more I thought about it, the more Li-Ning made sense. For one thing, Steph has rarely been attracted to the safest path. Throughout his career, he’s consistently aligned himself with growth opportunities rather than established hierarchies.

That’s essentially what happened when he left Nike for Under Armour over a decade ago. He wasn’t interested in being another athlete in someone else’s ecosystem. He wanted to help build something.

Just listen to him in this recent Instagram Reel — from the GOAT Movie premiere in LA — talking about his underdog experience at Davidson:

Li-Ning feels similar. While Anta is the larger company, Li-Ning still has room to grow globally, particularly in the United States.

In fact, here’s what Ernie Plascencia tweeted after Curry’s announcement — Ernie happens to be the right-hand man of Jimmy Butler, who also has a signature line at Li-Ning:

The company already has a strong reputation among serious basketball shoe enthusiasts. Many sneaker reviewers consider Li-Ning’s Way Of Wade line to be among the best in the world.

In other words, Steph isn’t joining an unproven brand. He’s joining a respected brand that still has another level it can reach.

There’s also the athlete roster to consider. Anta already has Irving as its flagship guard. Kyrie is one of the most influential basketball shoe athletes on the planet and his signature line has become a centerpiece of Anta’s basketball strategy. From a branding perspective, it may not have made sense for Steph to share that spotlight.

Li-Ning, on the other hand, offers Curry a clearer lane. Maybe that’s the simplest explanation of all. Sometimes the best partnerships happen when both sides are at exactly the right point in their growth.

Steph is one of the most recognizable athletes in the world, while Li-Ning appears eager to expand its global presence and strengthen its position in the United States. That combination feels less like a traditional endorsement deal and more like a strategic partnership.

As we’ve seen throughout Curry’s career, he has a habit of finding opportunities where others see risk. This one may end up being another example.

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