Warriors Decision Tree: The Kristaps Porzingis Question
[salary cap + commentary + Grimes? 🤔]
Other than myself, Bobby Marks of ESPN became the first reporter (finally!) to say that unless the Warriors make significant financial sacrifices, the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception (NTMLE) remains extremely difficult to access:
Because of the first apron hard cap, it is unlikely Golden State can use the $15 million non-tax midlevel exception and still have flexibility to remain under once the roster is filled out.
Of course, that part wasn’t as sexy as the next paragraph listing a bunch of free agents — we will discuss the top ones here — Marks thought would fit on the Golden State roster, so a lot of those kid aggregator fan pages skipped to the eye candy.
That sent me back to the spreadsheets, knowing that double sign-and-trades of Kristaps Porziņģis make a whole lot more sense than simply signing a free agent to the hard-to-get NTMLE.
After all, this was how Klay Thompson was traded out to the Dallas Mavs. The Dubs brought in Kyle Anderson and Buddy Hield, plus Chris Paul was waived to help duck under the first apron. Teams that receive a sign-and-trade free agent are hard-capped at the first apron.
During last night's livestream, I wanted to stop being at the mercy of the rumor mill and instead follow every realistic path the salary cap would allow. If Draymond Green opts in, one branch opens. If he opts out and takes a discount, an entirely different branch appears.
If Porziņģis returns at one number, one set of possibilities exists. If his number changes, the entire tree changes with it.
The fascinating part wasn't discovering dozens of new possibilities, it was eliminating them.
One by one, many of the names Warriors fans have discussed started falling away because of guaranteed years, apron restrictions, hard-cap implications, or Golden State's apparent desire to preserve maximum flexibility for the summer of 2027.
By the end of the exercise, the Decision Tree looked much different than it did when we started.
Below the paywall, I'll walk through why commenter-suggested Quentin Grimes unexpectedly survived the capsheet exercise better than many bigger names, why Collin Sexton and Anfernee Simons may be harder to acquire than they first appear, and why — perhaps surprisingly — the strongest branch of the tree may simply be keeping KP after all.
Incidentally, I have added timestamps to the livestream, so you can skip around as needed:
[Decision Tree conclusions below the paywall 👇]
🫶💙💛
