Kuminga per-36, Steph Curry schemed on by Malone, give Wiggins the benefit of the doubt + more

[analysis/game notes/film study]

Takeaways from Nuggets-Warriors in Denver, with video and quotes at the bottom:

MALONE HEAVILY SCHEMED STEPH

Contrary to casual belief, Stephen Curry does sometimes need at least a half to understand how he’s being schemed against if he hasn’t played a certain opponent in awhile. Denver head coach Michael Malone had his team sell out completely on Curry, forcing the ball out of his hands, sometimes directly to them, unfortunately, in the form of three first-half turnovers.

The level of commitment to this, Steph underestimated — and did not calibrate that well in the first quarter, as evidenced by the plays noted below. Also, as we saw in Cleveland, coaches are most likely to employ these schemes if they’re at home and have a practice day to prepare for the Warriors — the Pistons probably did, too, although they’re a very young team, as evidenced by Ausar Thompson’s poor pick-and-roll defense late against Steph’s close-out layup, incidentally shown here in the bts video from Detroit:)

But anyways, back to Denver (full list of notes at the bottom):

• 8m57 Q1 Klay doesn't move to the corner, Steph tov -- vets tov early

• 4m15 Q1 Steph tov vs KCP

• 4m14 Q2 Steph has 3 guys on him! Draws a foul

• 1m50 Q2 Steph bad tov, underestimating the length, side-step picking up his dribble, he probably thought Jokic would let him shoot 2, but Jokic actually commits to a closeout, so it's just Steph getting used to the gameplan against him (Malone)

• 1m35 Q2 Steph should've nutmegged Jokic, kicked ball

…although Steph did have at least one play (in the first half) where he made the Nuggets pay for their over-attention on him:

• 8m27 Q1 Steph fundamental pass inside to Loon and-one

• (You could call drawing the above foul vs the triple-team a positive)

Sure enough, Steph literally got up on the podium postgame and his first answer alluded to recognizing his own mistakes: “…we can play a lot better in the margins and we can execute a little bit better. Offensively, get a little bit more organized understanding the how they guard us and what they try to take away.”

I’ll go ahead and put the video here, just in case:

Sure, those quotes of “we” were in the context of the team, but I don’t think he’s up there nitpicking anyone on the second unit, you know what I mean? Also, credit the Nuggets’ length. People often forget how big their starting unit is, and this is with Jamal Murray usually in there (out due to hamstring) instead of Reggie Jackson, who actually did a decent job filling in.

So the difference after the first two quarters was minus-six and so to win the game you’ve got to outscore the defending champs by seven in the second half — tall order, considering they’ve started the season on a roll. Obviously their youngsters, new to the program, new to defending the Steve Kerr System, struggled and the Warriors’ second unit actually eventually helped take the lead, late.

With early miscues such as Klay Thompson’s double-dribble, zigging while Steph thought he would zag, and Andrew Wiggins’ ongoing offensive struggles, there still leaves much to be desired from the starters, albeit…

DRAYMOND (& GP2) OUT WAS FELT

The following plays illustrated what we missed on defense early, in terms of setting the tone, from the absence of Draymond Green (also Gary Payton II, but I chose not to put emphasis on him):

3m00 Q1 CP airball then people don't sprint back, Dario ends up directing the wrong traffic, should've noticed Steph and CP had to cover 6'10 guy (MPJ dunk putback)

2m05 Q2 Saric doesn't need to help CP vs Reggie. CP probably knows AG is at 33% 3PP, didn't want Saric on Reggie.

So the transition defense with Dario Saric in Draymond’s spot, first of all you know his vocality isn’t going to be as great as Dray’s. Secondly, Saric actually picked the wrong guy to cover, leaving the two smallest guys on the court to fend with Michael Porter, Jr. on the dunk putback. Nothing you can really do about that at this point of the season — I’d even be shocked if Saric was as vocal as need be by the end of the season; the Warriors are simply worse on many fronts with Draymond missing.

By the way, there was apparently social media speculation that Draymond’s wife Hazel Renee had given birth to their baby daughter. Earlier last month, a very-pregnant-looking Renee had posted the gender reveal on Instagram. Fast forward to Wednesday, Mistah FAB posted an Instagram Reel from inside Ball Arena in Denver, where he and Dray joked about Fabby’s Uncle Ernest not making the trip. That clip was posted after tipoff, leading me to believe that it happened during morning shootaround. Green was listed as “out for personal reasons” on the injury report as early as Tuesday night, as tweeted by John Dickinson of 95.7. Maybe as I type this, the confirmation of “personal reasons” being the birth of the baby could be revealed, but if not, we may never know why Dray missed the game — he was definitely in Denver as late as Wednesday morning.

Back to the detail, of course I’m nitpicking a few plays here, so don’t think it’s a cancer or anything, but Dray missing the game definitely had an impact on the final score as it pertains to defensive communication.

The chemistry of the team adjusted in the second half, though, and guys really stepped up in crunch time. Kevon Looney, who did as good a job against Nikola Jokic as you could ask for, having five fouls was critical in the blow-by of Klay by Reggie, as Klay guessed Jokic would attack Looney and got caught in “No Man’s Land” for getting bamboozled by the two-time MVP. But don’t forget Klay’s incredible championship-level baseline defense and eventual steal of Aaron Gordon in crunch time.

Again, the first half maladjustment was enough of a chess move by Malone to secure the game overall, although him playing Jokic the entire third quarter nearly cost him and you wonder if GP2’s pressure somewhere in there might have tipped the balance as he usually does once, twice or thrice per game.

Now, back to Wiggins…

LET’S GIVE WIGGS THE B.O.T.D.

As I mentioned on the broadcast, Wiggs entered the game with the following alarming stats:

• 39:15 Wiggs is 34/82 on fg and 3/17 on 3s so far this year (also 15/28 53.6% ft)

But I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. As I always do on our livestreams, I ask the fandom to take more of an approach of gratitude. Live life from the perspective of abundance, not lack. If you’re judging NBA players left and right, then you’re probably doing it in real life. Quite simply, stop complaining and get back to embodying a more empathetic human being, which quite frankly embodies the culture of the Warriors and is a foundation of how I run LetsGoWarriors:

• 11:30 on Wiggs needing to "wake up": Let's be more mindful with our words. "Wake up" tends to be more on the "throw that guy under the bus" category. For all we know, Wiggs might still have his dad on his mind.

I can’t draw from experience on a loved one nearly dying within the past twelve (nine?) months, as has been reported about Wiggs’ dad earlier this year, so can’t we just cut him some slack? He was instrumental in the 2022 Finals. Hasn’t he earned it?

One of our regular commenters even brought forth the issue of the rib injury, as well as prior track record:

• 3:47:45 People forget that Wiggins had a slump in the 2nd half of the championship year in 2022. He was sensational in the playoffs especially the conference finals and finals.

• 3:52:00 J: Ribs are no joke. My buddy cracked his rib like 6 months ago and he's still feeling it. It's serious stuff

• 3:52:45 Wiggs never complains, never says anything

Not surprisingly, Kerr went on 95.7 The Game yesterday, the day after the loss, and also alluded to Wiggins’ track record, specifically pointing out that had these woes happened in February, there would be less narratives about it. Steve is basically saying right now, it’s a small sample size anyways.

Finally, Wiggs had a good defensive game, basically shutting down MPJ when guarding him. Instead of worrying about him, just root for him.

YOUNG REF CREW LET THEM PLAY

Going into the game was ironically this ominous fact:

• 0:00 Giannis ejected for taunting (2nd tech, they should use the delay-of-game), ref is Scott Twardoski -- it's always the younger refs tossing out stars for minimal rules violations

The usual quick trip to our NBA referee assignments page during the live chat and it was three refs without anyone with deep experience such as one of the guys in my Top Six:

Now, I’m gonna boast that as the Commissioner of a men’s rec league that got as big as 125 teams across the Bay in the late-2000’s, if you do not assign a Top-Ten senior ref to a game, there could be mistakes. I always loathed having to scrape the bottom of the barrel if there were a big AAU tournament going on and even one or two of my senior refs had already committed to that. Obviously with the goaltending controversy, there were mistakes made by the refs in Denver.

But early on, I noticed the refs were “letting them play”, it being an ESPN game. Well, better that than calling all the ticky-tacks, I said. Although the Klay double-dribble was egregious, as I was doing play-by-play, there were borderline dribbling violations on both sides that I feel like early last year were called against Curry on the road. The problem is, without Dray, the Nuggets are a bigger, more physical team and Malone’s edict of blitzing Steph becomes more effective.

Another outgrowth of that: favorable calls for two-time MVP Jokic (vs Loon). Not much called on the floor for dribblers getting double- and triple-teamed such as Wardell, a two-time MVP himself. There was one play where he lost the ball on a behind-the-back dribble against the long-armed (and underrated, still) Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.

Steph looked up at the ref as if to say he was fouled. Not tonight, my GOAT! Please adjust sooner than later — although I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt because it’s been a long road trip with some incredible showmanship; surely the energy can’t be sustained at that level with this many flights across the middle third of America!

With the ability to play more physical outside of against Jokic, the absence of Draymond on the defensive end was even more pronounced. Oh well.

The funny thing is, my dad and I often lament how the NBA doesn’t seem to take as much care on such details as goaltending non-calls (how to fix them) and out-of-bounds calls (see L2M or, if you don’t want to be outraged, don’t see it) as does the NFL:

• 0m07 Q4 why does the NFL do replay so much better?

I could segue into the interview JJ Redick just did with Adam Silver where Silver criticizes NBA color commentators for not doing more Xs and Os like the NFL, but I’ll resist the temptation and talk about that (and link to it) some other day. Hey Adam, fyi it’s a culture change you’re seeking. Your refs and (in-)ability to do replay review as fast as the NFL are included in that.

If you like the NFL way, please go get your Warriors games on streaming, mute the “TVA” (TV announcer, as coined by The Athletic’s Tim Kawakami, Google it! 😁) and sync up with me on YouTube with my own “ManningCast” rendition of the game. Let’s change the culture together.

JK KEEPS THE UPWARD TREND

My co-host Dean “of Positivity” Chambers hopped on the broadcast and lauded Jonathan Kuminga’s Per-36-Minutes numbers, which sort of normalize stats between starters and bench players. Let’s take a look: 22.1 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 1.3 apg.

By contrast, Kawhi Leonard didn’t average something like that until his fifth year (23.0), although he had robust numbers in rebounding (6.9 to 8.2) and assists (1.6 to 2.9) — incidentally it’s the steals, blocks and low turnovers (all at elite levels per-36) that make Kawhi an all-time great and come to think of it, I’m not sure JK will ever reach those. As such, I will hereby temper my fav comp of Kawhi for JK.

In the spirit of dialing it down a bit, let’s just arbitrarily look at another fair comparison: last year’s Sixth Man of the Year, Malcolm Brogdon. His per-36 numbers were 20.6, 5.8, 5.1. This year he has started three of Portland’s eight games and has 22.4, 6.2, 7.1. Btw I had no idea his assists were so awesome.

So JK’s scoring numbers are nice, although the rebounds and assists are lower than desired, but they are on a team where his role is to be the primary iso mismatch on a Chris Paul-led second unit, as well as defend the other team’s most dynamic guy.

And that’s the part where Draymond had said before the season (on his podcast?) that CP3 can “unlock” JK. I always wondered what that meant, exactly. Now we know: it’s iso post-ups and JK’s variety of moves from that spot. He just needs to pick the right tool from the bag at the right moment, aka “Mamba Mentality”.

Incidentally, Tim Legler said he was disappointed with JK’s progress after watching the nationally televised game (I’m not gonna link his podcast, sorry). I think that’s where the difference between an analyst who hasn’t watched every game and is looking for results in a marquee matchup versus me, who’s been watching JK game by game, seeing an upward trend, seeing a gradual elimination of what I term are “brain farts”, and noticing what the specific decision-making issues are (they’re correctable), makes a difference.

Which gets me to the nitpicking:

• 11m40 Q4 JK slow in his post up, but maybe he'll learn, spun inside to the help

The play above and maybe the lack of pure dominance against Denver’s super-young Bruce Brown-less second unit can be glaring to a national analyst like Legler who is tuning in here and there. JK did hit a baseline jumper with Jokic daring him to, late shot clock, but there weren’t a ton of opportunities in the post, once hitting Moses Moody on a cut (did Legler see that one?) and another time with Klay not clearing out fast enough to give JK the room needed for a proper iso in the post (Legler surely isn’t perturbed as much by the nitpicky mistakes of sure-fire Hall-of-Famers as I am, but then again he doesn’t have to deal with balance of justice when casuals complain left and right in the Comments).

As for defense, JK was stellar in a variety of ways:

• 0m37 Q1 great zone D by JK to help TJD

• 10m40 Q2 JK good close out on Reggie

• 8m15 Q2 JK another good close on Reggie

• 7m32 Q4 great physicality CP vs MPJ inside, miss, JK reb

I mean, I guess Legler just isn’t looking at JK’s defensive impact at all 🤷🏻‍♂️ Overall, I think Legler is solid. But as a national observer who doesn’t quite see the silver lining, or conversely all of the influential context.

Speaking of the Nuggets’ second unit, Malone was particularly harsh on them in the postgame, but I think that’s just his style of making them play better next time. We’ll see if it works the next time these two teams meet.

And speaking of Malone’s chess match earlier, let’s give some credit to Kerr for deploying the late-quarter 1-2-2 zone which led to defensive plays by JK and Mo on separate occasions.

Finally speaking of Moses, he’s been super-solid per usual, going 2-for-3 from beyond the arc as Malone dared him to shoot after his second unit got on its heels with a CP-Saric pick-and-roll. Unfortunately, Mo had been 2-for-11 on threes prior to that, which brought his 7-for-17 start through the first four games back down to Earth.

As he said on the podium as a rookie, “Comparison is the thief of joy,” (unless you’re in it for positive outcomes like I am above), but one of our regulars in the live chat commented postgame that Moody has improved more than Kuminga. The problem with that is, it takes the joy out of JK’s development because he has more roles to fill.

Not only does he need to play “Point-Five” or “Tiki-taka” basketball, but he’s the main man in the post with the second unit. Once he gets the ball in the post, he has a variety of tools to go to. Maybe even too many, that it affects his ability to quickly choose one — such is the “first-world problems” of highly talented one-on-one dudes.

TJD HELD HIS OWN

I’m looking at the time on this iPhone I’m thumb-typing on and I’ve written more than two hours straight. Sigh. But I can’t start editing yet for one more hour before I mention Trayce Jackson-Davis. It was almost a coming-out party for him, even though it wasn’t. Which kind of epitomizes him, doesn’t it? He’s a rookie, but then again he isn’t.

On 95.7 yesterday, Steve had a breakdown of TJD’s games played being more than Mo and JK’s. Maybe I’ll get around to transcribing that whole thing for you, maybe I won’t. Might depend on what Kerr says on the podium today after practice, what he leaves out or what gets repeated.

I’m tired, so I’ll spare you the copy/paste of Trayce’s game notes (they’re still interspersed below), but did you notice his pass to a cutting Moody for a bucket was no-look?!

Dean said, “He’s no longer a project,” on the air. Klay also praised Trayce during his short 1.5-minute stint on the postgame podium.

POSTGAME: STEPH/MALONE/REGGIE

POSTGAME: STEVE/KLAY/LOON/TJD

LIVECHAT WITH TIMESTAMPS

5:00 NBCSBA is broadcasting from Thrive City, they did not send Monte Poole on the road trip

11:30 on Wiggs needing to "wake up": Let's be more mindful with our words. "Wake up" tends to be more on the "throw that guy under the bus" category. For all we know, Wiggs might still have his dad on his mind.

10m45 Q1 Klay double-dribble

10m00 Q1 Steph needlessly reaches in on AG post

9m27 Q1 Dario screen for Klay in transition but he missed

8m57 Q1 Klay doesn't move to the corner, Steph tov -- vets tov early

8m27 Q1 Steph fundamental pass inside to Loon and-one

5m42 Q1 Jokic beasts Looney, should've been called for a charge -- they didn't call the early travel on Steph

4m55 Q1 Kerr doesn't call timeout, Wiggs fouled, DEN TV timeout, smart non-TO by Kerr

39:15 Wiggs is 34/82 on fg and 3/17 on 3s so far this year (15/28 53.6% ft)

4m15 Q1 Steph tov vs KCP

3m55 Q1 Saric oreb and jump hook, then pressures Jokic

3m00 Q1 CP airball then people don't sprint back, Dario ends up directing the wrong traffic, should've noticed Steph and CP had to cover 6'10 guy (MPJ dunk putback)

2m20 Q1 Podziemski subs in and promptly scores, wow the average age on the floor rn!

1m15 Q1 Moody 3, Watson didn't get the scouting report

0m55 Q1 JK finds Moody cut

0m37 Q1 great zone D by JK to help TJD

11m35 Q2 Klay a little slow to clear out for JK post bucket

11m00 Q2 TJD to Mo tiki-taka dunk

10m40 Q2 JK good close out on Reggie

10m22 Q2 Klay with the "these kids can't cover me" heat-check 3

10m10 Q2 Trayce late on the help of Klay, Klay throws his hands up

8m15 Q2 JK another good close on Reggie

8m00 Q2 defensive breakdown, CP argues with ref after TO

1:03:00 analyzing the last play: Trayce should've helped CP, Kerr yells at him, but then draws a play for TJD

7m42 Q2 Steph to TJD alley-oop, Steve ran a play for the guy that he yelled at, brilliant!

7m11 Q2 Jokic swats BP, welcome to the NBA, don't take it on the MVP

4m41 Q2 Steph to BP on the gravity by Wiggs (Gillespie probably at fault)

4m14 Q2 Steph has 3 guys on him! Draws a foul

3m41 Q2 Saric to Wiggs (foul) but used Steph's gravity

3m12 Q2 CP-Saric PNR creates Saric vs Gillespie post which then leads to AG fouling Loon

2m05 Q2 Saric doesn't need to help CP vs Reggie, analyzing this play below

1m50 Q2 Steph bad tov, underestimating the length, analyzing below as well

1m35 Q2 Steph should've nutmegged Jokic, kick ball

1:28:00 CP probably knows AG is at 33% 3PP, didn't want Saric on Reggie -- on Steph side-step picking up his dribble, he probably thought Jokic would let him shoot 2, but Jokic actually commits to a closeout, so it's just Steph getting used to the gameplan against him (Malone)

1:35:45 Steph apparently mocked Jokic with a flex on his flop (on the travel?)

10m22 Q3 Jokic fouls Steph after losing him on the close out

9m00 Q3 Steph Loon Wiggs tic tac toe

8m30 Q3 Steph 3 via Loon timing pass

8m01 Q3 good Klay closeout vs MPJ

7m40 Q3 good on ball D by Steph vs KCP Jokic

6m40 Q3 Klay Wiggs post up layup

3m30 Q3 Mo corner 3 maybe they left him off their scouting report?

1m30 Q3 Braun 3 miss that's what we want

0m35 Q3 BP touchdown pass TJD (Jokic 3rd pf, 29 mins played, probably only 6 more mins you'd want him to play)

0m15 Q3 Mo steals in 3-2 zone (give Steve some freakin credit)

2:07:00 Jokic ended up playing entire Q3, Steph 25 mins played, expect him at 7m00 Q4

11m40 Q4 JK slow in his post up, but maybe he'll learn, spun inside to the help

11m20 Q4 great help TJD on Reggie blow by of JK

2:14:45 MPJ can get hot quickly so early TO by Steve, plus your 2nd unit is young, more momentum-based than vets, plus bring Klay back in for BP

10m30 Q4 JK crash on TJD getting fouled

9m40 Q4 great box out TJD leads to CP touchdown JK

9m35 Q4 Steph in with 25 mins played

7m32 Q4 great physicality CP vs MPJ inside, miss, JK

2:22:15 NBA ref staff is too young! completely missed the goaltending

6m20 Q4 Wiggs nice attack Jokic

5m30 Q4 Klay good get back fb vs KCP

4m52 Q4 Steph Loon Wiggs tic tac toe

3m22 Q4 great team D, Reggie missed baseline

2m57 Q4 Wiggs seemed to have blocked Jokic, no challenge!

2m12 Q4 Jokic covering Klay (Malone chess)

1m50 Q4 Klay great D on AG (gets beat by Reggie but gambled that Jokic would attack Loon 5pf)

1m30 Q4 Loon vs Jokic!

0m30 Q4 great D Klay to double Jokic, tov

0m07 Q4 why does the NFL do replay so much better?

2:52:00 ENJOYING THE FACT THAT OUR COMMENTS ARE SO POSITIVE THESE DAYS, WE'RE ABLE TO DROWN OUT THE COMPLAINERS

3:04:00 DEAN COMES ON

3:05:45 STEVE POSTGAME AUDIO NOW ON

3:09:00 Dean: zero offensive rebounds for DEN 2nd half

3:11:00 Dean: inspired by a loss!

3:17:45 LOONEY POSTGAME AUDIO NOW ON

3:24:15 Dean: starters need to play better, but it's a good problem to have

3:28:30 TJD"s no look pass to Mo on Warriors account, Dean: Trayce is no longer a project

3:32:00 on Leandro Barbosa (not really like Gui), I say Santos is kinda like Ariza but Ariza didn't have the same handles

3:42:30 Dean: we're getting more FTs, perhaps first time throughout dynasty

3:43:45 CP and Wiggs almost there

3:45:15 on Mo improving more than JK: they have different roles. We could argue it though. Mo has fewer brain farts, but he really doesn't have too much on the menu, Dean: go look up JK's per-36 (outstanding)

3:47:45 People forget that Wiggins had a slump in the 2nd half of the championship year in 2022. He was sensational in the playoffs especially the conference finals and finals.

3:52:00 J: Ribs are no joke. My buddy cracked his rib like 6 months ago and he's still feeling it. It's serious stuff

3:52:45 Wiggs never complains, never says anything

4:02:45 Draymond tweets "wow" at 843pm (wife gave birth?)

👍👍💛💙