The hidden problem with the LeBron-to-Warriors rumors
[video essay, cap sheet work, commentary]
Potential Stan Wars on social media aside, which quite frankly do not matter IRL, the Golden State Warriors should absolutely be interested in LeBron James especially if you saw his performance for the LA Lakers in the playoffs.
If you’re on our Discord server, you already know that Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints has reported James will meet with one Wardell Stephen Curry II soon.
Meanwhile, Tim Kawakami of the SF Standard, Kevin O’Connor of Yahoo Sports and Sam Quinn of CBS Sports (co-host of The Third Apron with cap expert Yossi Gozlan) all agree that LeBron is definitely in play for the Warriors.
Obviously, Mike Dunleavy, Jr. and Joe Lacob will investigate every possible avenue to improve the roster. It’s just common sense.
But the hidden problem is how people are assuming the Warriors would acquire him. As far as I know, everyone has said that the path to acquiring James is the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception (NTMLE).
I won’t bore you with the details of how that works, but it is a way for teams that are below the luxury tax line to sign a free agent (or two), basically cap space relief worth up to roughly $15 million — as long as you stay below the first apron, which is about $9 million above that luxury tax line.
In case you didn’t know, the GSW payroll easily blew past the first apron last season, largely because the salaries of Moses Moody and Jonathan Kuminga shot upwards from their rookie baselines, as is allowed in the current Collective Bargaining Agreement — the Warriors were under the second apron, though.
Unlike the Warriors, most NBA teams are not paying the luxury tax, therefore the NTMLE is referred to as a convenient and easy way to value a certain substrate of available free agents. In fact, the NTMLE is often referred to merely as “the mid-level”, just removing the extra words denoting its “non-taxpayer” etymology.
So, I can see why reporters often toss around the mid-level exception as something that’s usually doable.
Based on my own spreadsheet calculations of the Warriors’ salary cap situation, I am here to say that the mid-level exception is not a magic wand.
The logic sounds simple enough:
Get under the luxury tax,
Open the NTMLE, then
Sign James.
The problem is that the first step is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence. Getting under the luxury tax is not a minor maneuver. It’s the entire challenge.
Depending on how the Warriors handle Kristaps Porziņģis and Draymond Green, their payroll can easily approach $220 million, which is just below the second apron where you would want to be, to avoid harsh penalties such as freezing future picks at the end of the first round.
The luxury tax line is roughly $200 million. That means the Warriors would need to shed approximately $20 million before they could even begin discussing the NTMLE. That’s the part of the conversation that often gets skipped.
The easiest way to get under the tax would be to renounce free agent Porziņģis. On paper, that sounds straightforward. In practice, it is a significant decision.
When you renounce a free agent, you are not simply removing a player from the roster. You are surrendering the salary slot associated with that player. That salary slot can be an asset, as it can be used in sign-and-trade scenarios or future roster construction.
Maximizing a roster slot preserves flexibility that may prove more valuable than simply creating room for a mid-level signing, such as aggregating salaries to acquire a more expensive star player.
Could the Warriors decide that LeBron is worth sacrificing Kristaps? Sure, but that is very different from saying, “Make some maneuvers and use the NTMLE.”
Tomorrow, I’ll go over what the grand plan should be when it comes to acquiring LeBron, which in and of itself the Warriors should only do as one of a series of moves, not the only move.
The grand plan includes trading for Kawhi Leonard and, at that point, Bron makes sense to me.
There may also be some competition for James. The Lakers could find a way to bring him back and, in a video with esteemed Lakers journalists Anthony Irwin and Harrison Faigen, cap expert Gozlan found a path to pay LeBron $24 million to return to LA.
James made over $50 million last year. That’s a pay cut of over 50%. Getting a contract at the NTMLE level would then seem like a slap in the face to LeBron’s camp as long as there are realistic pathways to something substantially higher than that (returning to the Lakers for $24 million).
We should do better than just the NTMLE.
Side note: I have been told by a trusted insider that LeBron is not going back to the Lakers, but I am still using that $24 million figure as a benchmark. It is just safer when guessing what the market will do.
That’s why in my mock off-season for the Warriors, I have them signing-and-trading Porzingis for LeBron, at that same $24 million figure — a number which can be brought down depending on a new contract with Green, assuming he opts out. That also gives the Lakers an asset and salary slot rather than just allowing James to walk and getting nothing in return.
The good news for GSW? Bron and Dray, of course, are both part of the family over there at Klutch Sports and share Rich Paul as their agent, so they can all hash their respective salaries out together.
My calculations tell me the two players have cap space of $40 million to figure out between themselves if Kawhi is traded for Jimmy Butler and Brandin Podziemski (and two first-round picks, as I will explain in a separate post, see the Comments for the eventual link).
There are other factors in play. What do the Lakers want to pay Porzingis, if they are interested at all? What other offers are out there for KP? I would assume likely not that many.
I actually presented this plan back on May 3rd on our YouTube channel:
Since then there have been a few tweaks, even significant tweaks, but Kawhi as the crown jewel still remains the primary pursuit, which again will be discussed next on this Substack.
Ironically, sending out Butler and Podziemski reduces the Warriors’ salaries by more than $10 million and, combined with Draymond’s opt-out and new smaller salary, sheds that $20 million and gets the Dubs under the luxury tax line, enabling that NTMLE.
But based on these salary slots for Dray ($16 million) and KP-or-Bron ($24 million), it only leaves $13 million for NTMLE usage to stay under the first apron, not the full $15 million that’s allowed.
I don’t think we are getting Bron at $13 million. That’s way too steep of a pay cut.
So is there a way for Golden State to keep KP and acquire LeBron?
Even if every GM agreed not to use their NTMLE on LeBron and the Warriors went ahead and got Bron with the full $15 million NTMLE, as well as made the Kawhi trade (remember, doing so reduces salary!) and kept Porzingis, thereby still getting under the luxury tax, you could only pay Kristaps a maximum of $19 million if Dray agreed to the steepest of salary cuts to $16 million.
I should say, aesthetically I’m not sure KP on the floor with Bron at the same time makes sense, either. Porzingis’ strength is the high post at the top of the circle and work from there, whereas Bron can fit into the gravity movement system of Steph while at the same time, post up in the mid-block if things get hairy.
So, I guess you can force feed me a scenario where Bron was obtained at the $15 million full mid-level while retaining KP and Draymond together earning $35 million in total — I just don’t see all that happening.
Also, doing it that way ruins my latest idea: trading a future pick plus a swap for one of OKC or Charlotte’s two first-round 2026 picks. The Warriors would need the extra wiggle room to take on the salary of that new pick. There’s zero wiggle if you’re trading for Kawhi, keeping Porzingis, and adding LeBron.
I’d even say getting a second 2026 first-round pick should be the No. 1 priority, even ahead of Kawhi. I’ll do a cap sheet analysis on the YouTube channel soon for next summer’s salary concerns and you’ll see why.
The spreadsheets for 2026-27 are telling me the ways to get LeBron using the NTMLE seem far-fetched, but I remain humble and open to the possibility that I may have missed something.
And one last thing: the above is very hard to explain in words, although I do see the value in at least attempting to document all this. That’s why it has taken me more than a month to put my Kawhi on idea on paper, here.
I will post the final cap sheet with Kawhi on it in the forthcoming article. This one, I just wanted to kind of temper the expectations of getting LeBron with a NTMLE.
Come to my video essays and upcoming livestreams on YouTube and let’s play around with the spreadsheets together.
🫶💙💛