Strongest Arguments I’ve Heard Against Yaxel Lendeborg at No. 11
[new intel from NBADraft.net]
For the past few weeks, I’ve probably spent more time talking about Yaxel Lendeborg than any other prospect in this draft.
The fit with the Warriors feels obvious. He rebounds, he passes, he defends, he plays with force. He talks about getting assists before he talks about getting points. He sounds like a Steve Kerr player and a Draymond Green teammate. I even said Lendeborg could be Draymond 2.0.
So when I sat down with Eric Guilleminault of NBADraft.net, I expected to hear more confirmation of what many Warriors fans already believe. Instead, I heard the strongest argument yet for why Lendeborg may not be the pick at No. 11.
Not because Guilleminault dislikes the player. In fact, Eric G. repeatedly emphasized that he likes Yaxel’s toughness, versatility and overall fit. The issue is something else entirely.
The biggest obstacle, seemingly, is simple: Yaxel is already 23 years old. Eric G. referenced a list of first-round picks from basketball analytics guru Dean Oliver. He tweeted all the names of recent first-round picks who entered the NBA at age 23 or older. The list contained plenty of solid NBA players, but very few stars:
The argument isn’t that older prospects can’t succeed. The argument is that teams drafting in the Lottery are often chasing upside as much as current production.
If a team believes the championship window of one Wardell Stephen Curry II is only a few more years, Yaxel’s age may not matter very much. But if a team is thinking about what its roster looks like three, four or five years from now, the equation changes.
Three years from now, Yaxel will already be approaching his late twenties. That’s the concern. One point Eric G. kept returning to was that NBA teams aren’t necessarily drafting the best player today. They’re drafting the player they believe can become the best player.
That’s why younger prospects such as Nate Ament, Karim Lopez and others continue to attract attention despite being less polished. Yaxel might be the better basketball player right now, but NBA front offices are asking a different question: Who will be the better player in 2029? That question can dramatically change a draft board.
Another point Eric G. mentioned was that Yaxel apparently has not generated universal enthusiasm during the pre-Draft process, referencing concerns that have circulated regarding private team interviews and maturity evaluations from the Combine.
What are examples of those? Guilleminault said, “I'm not privy to say,” when I asked him last night on our livestream:
Importantly, these aren’t concerns about Yaxel’s production at Michigan. In fact, nearly everyone agrees that he had an outstanding season. Rather, they are the kinds of background evaluations every team conducts when deciding whether to invest a Lottery pick in a player.
Whether those concerns are meaningful or overblown — whether out of candor or purposely designed as Draft strategy smokescreens — is impossible for outsiders to know, but if multiple teams have similar questions, it could affect where he ultimately lands.
Eric G. wasn’t necessarily arguing against Yaxel, he was arguing against Yaxel at No. 11. That’s a very different discussion. Eric even suggested that if the Warriors traded down and acquired additional assets, Yaxel could become a much more logical target. The debate is whether No. 11 is the correct value.
That’s a much more nuanced position than simply saying the Warriors should pass.
I still love the fit. Yaxel’s passing, rebounding, toughness and versatility would help the Warriors immediately, but after talking with Eric, I understand the counterargument better than I did before.
Check below the paywall for additional intel that just came in this morning 👇 — these are (except one nugget) available in the free section of our Discord server.
Still, for Golden State and what’s realistic with the 11th pick, I don’t think there is a better plug-and-play talent who fits our existing roster right now than Yaxel. You need to win a game tomorrow? Then pick Yaxel.
We’ll find out soon enough whether the Warriors agree with that perspective.
Be sure to join us in the Watch Party this evening for the most twists and turns we have ever seen in an NBA Draft!
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