Why the Warriors now have No. 52 and 59 of the Draft 2nd Rd

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UPDATE: The Warriors just traded the 41st pick to Phoenix for the 52nd and 59th picks. The following was written with the 41st pick in mind. In the interests of time, I will add some italics to things that might be altered now.

During his pre-Draft interview, Mike Dunleavy, Jr. seemed to express concern about their 41st pick even “making it” as an NBA player. This seemed odd because Quinten Post made it last year and he was the 52nd pick. Trayce Jackson-Davis made it the year before and he was even lower at 57, not to mention Ryan Rollins (44) and Gui Santos (55) in the years before that.

Of course, this year is a little different in that the closing window for one Wardell Stephen Curry is blatantly clear and the expectation is that we don’t really have that much time to develop this draftee. He kind of has to come ready out of the box a la Jackson-Davis. But it’s also a stark reminder that it took Post more than half of last season and then we saw him kind of flame out in the playoffs. No disrespect; it’s just part of the process of basketball development.

But then Eric Guilleminault of NBADraft.net on our Draft Preview livestream (embedded below) the other night also mentioned that Golden State has been pretty unusually tight-lipped about what they’re going to do, knowing that the rest of the NBA has caught wind of their second round strategy the last two years.

In 2023, they made a promise to TJD and so that was a pre-determined pick, also based on intel that barely anyone else really wanted him. Last summer, the target all along was QP.

Obviously, both are centers and the second round is usually the place where you can find some centers. This year, those needs are pretty much covered from a role standpoint, kudos to Dunleavy. And so drafting a non-center who is going to be a role-playing contributor, that’s just harder to do.

Here’s our talk with Guilleminault. Timestamps are in the Description/Comments:

According to Eric G., other factors include this Draft just not being as deep, as it marks the end of the years of eligibility dating back to COVID and it’s a transition year for NIL before the NCAA imposes salary caps, so lots of quality talent have gone back to college.

Here’s almost everything we know about the second round of the Draft tonight, as it pertains to the Warriors. This is up through 1:30PM. I don’t know if I’ll be able to update this article if something pops up after that, but I assure you, it will be on our new Discord server.

Chicago informed the league this morning they were fielding offers for No. 45, sources say. Other known spots open for trade: Charlotte, with one of Nos. 33, 34, Toronto (No. 39), Golden State (No. 41) and OKC (No. 44). Minnesota, with the No. 31 and first pick of tonight’s second round, is also fielding trade interest for the Timberwolves’ selection, sources say. (Jake Fischer) … The Minnesota Timberwolves are expected to trade the No. 31 pick, per league sources. While not merely fielding calls, the team has actively engaged with several teams and is motivated to secure a strong return. (Ary)

It was also reported that the Lakers moved up to No. 45 and will probably pick 7’3” Australian center Rocco Zikarsky, per Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints. They probably knew GSW would not be looking to pick another center at 41.

There’s real cap sheet value with a second-round pick. The salary is only $1.27 million as compared to the 30th pick at $2.74 million. In a world where getting under the second or first apron is the motivating factor for a vast majority of teams, the extra savings matters.

UPDATE: Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints tweeted that the Dubs tried to move up. The following paragraphs perhaps explain why and why they preferred to move down from 41 and split that into two lower picks.

Do the above updates from this morning mean the Warriors move up? Eric G. talked about that and listed some of the guys he would trade up for from 41 if, say, they were still available at, say, 35:

• Danny Wolf and Ben Saraf are players that fit the Steve Kerr mold, per Eric G., but got picked in the first round, so cross them off the list.

• Serbian Bogoljub Markovic is a high-IQ 6’10.5” small forward/power forward, but is “skinny as a rail” and “can really shoot the ball…and can shoot it from far.” Defense is an issue, though. Aran Smith, fellow Warriors fan and founder of NBADraft.net, also likes him.

• Frenchman Mohamed Diawara has a huge wingspan with a 9’4” standing reach, although he lacks lateral quickness and isn’t a good overall shooter, but he knows he’s a role player, is good at corner threes, and his NBA comp is Wenyen Gabriel. However, Eric G. says Kerr would be frustrated by Diawara’s slow on-court processing, so the whole 0.5-basketball mantra kind of goes out the window — but that’s who Guilleminault would pick as a longer-term project if given the choice and therefore approaching the Draft from a traditional sense.

UPDATE: Now that the focus is on 52 and 59, Eric G.’s flyer picks above actually make more sense at those spots!

That being said, if the Warriors do pick more of a project, does that mean they’ve got other guys in mind to fill out the roster?

Even with Jonathan Kuminga signed, there are an additional four slots to fill and the Warriors are $37 million below the second apron. As we said last article regarding the trade market for him, a $27 million contract seems fair, so that leaves about $10 million to fill out the remaining four spots. With the veteran’s minimum at over $2.5 million, it’s going to be a tight squeeze.

That’s also part of the reason why I think JK — and therefore Moses Moody due to the math — will be moved, as I discussed in the previous post.

So if the Warriors trade the pick, does that mean there is a bigger trade looming because space under the second apron will be made by virtue of that forthcoming trade?

UPDATE: They obviously didn’t trade the pick for no pick. Instead, they now have two and perhaps it just gives them more optionality should they become stuck with Kuminga and need to fill out the remainder of the roster with cheaper rookie contracts?

Of course, they could also sign Taran Armstrong to a rookie deal at that $1.27 million figure. They could also sign the 41st 52nd and 59th picks to two-way deals that don’t count against the cap.

I could be wrong about all this, but my reaction will be 🤔 if the Warriors don’t make a pick in the second round tonight.

UPDATE: You can now skip the parts that try to predict the No. 41 pick. Remember, up above are some flyer picks by Eric G. that only make more sense from a traditional Draft approach sense, but are also more exciting as a fan than just searching for a long-shot role player. You know, “Ridiculous Upside”!

Now, if they make the pick and it’s, say, Koby Brea or Sion James, does that point to a guaranteed rookie deal for a likely NBA-ready contributor and taking advantage of a small salary slot? Again, Dunleavy seemed to show some concern with that on the podium. It might be hard to read into that too much, though.

And don’t forget, Dunleavy said they were going to look to fill out slots “in the middle” of the roster [full transcript has now been taken out of the paywall]. The 41st pick of the NBA Draft is supposed to be 10th-15th on the depth chart, which Dunleavy said he’s pretty confident about.

As far as predictions for No. 41, Siegel did a mock Draft and said:

Koby Brea (6’7”, 215 lbs., Sr., Kentucky) is no doubt the most underrated shooter in this draft class and would fit in perfectly with how the Warriors operate offensively.

The Warriors need some more shooting weapons and dependable second-unit guys. At Kentucky, Brea shot 43.5 percent from 3-point range, and he enters the league with a chip on his shoulder because people overlook his scoring abilities.

Eric G. adds that Brea plays solid defense and can put the ball on the floor.

Dalton Johnson of NBCSBA prefers wing defender in James of Duke:

Consistency is key. From the start, we’ve been all-in on James wearing a Golden State jersey. General manager Mike Dunleavy put an emphasis on defense when speaking to reporters Monday, and James is a clone of Lu Dort.

He also has improved exponentially as a shooter like Dort. James should be able to be a strong, versatile defender from the start. His physicality will translate. Will his shot?

James shot 49.1 percent on catch-and-shoot threes as a fifth-year senior at Duke. In his final two years of college between Tulane and Duke, James did it all by averaging 11.0 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.2 steals per game, while shooting 51.5 percent from the field and 39.4 percent on threes. He has the size, strength and athleticism to be in the rotation as a rookie. This is a winning player that should be hard to pass up.

Incidentally, Siegel has James dropping to No. 44 where the Dort clone will get picked by none other than OKC.

Sam Vecenie of The Athletic has Alex Toohey as the 41st pick. Aran Smith of NBADraft.net has Johni Broome going at 41, although most mock Drafts have Broome picked earlier.

Below the paywall is some exclusive intel on a player that had a good workout for the Warriors and, now, when he’ll get taken and by which team.

See you on the livestream tonight at 5:00PM!