The Golden State Warriors open the 2026-27 regular season tonight against the Lakers and as I’ve been thinking about how Steve Kerr might approach his starting lineup, whereby the fulcrum really is about who has to matchup with Luka Dončić.
Once you answer that question, you might find yourself answering two or three others about Golden State’s lineup, including one that I suspect a lot of people aren’t expecting: Could Graham Ike actually start at center in his first NBA regular-season game, now that Charles Bassey has been listed “out” due to knee tendinitis?
I’ve been considering these matchups since the preseason games against the Lakers and I have some fairly strong opinions about the coaching decisions I’d make. This isn’t a report that I’ve somehow uncovered Kerr’s starting five, though. When a reporter asked Steve at Tuesday’s practice [transcript below the paywall] whether he already knew who would start next to Steph Curry if Brandin Podziemski couldn’t play, Kerr acknowledged that he did know, then rather predictably declined to tell us.
Fair enough, Steve. That leaves us to connect the dots ourselves.
The starting five I’d choose
My preferred opening group would be one Wardell Stephen Curry II, De’Anthony Melton, Yaxel Lendeborg, Draymond Green and Ike (yes, I would’ve started Bassey if he were healthy), with Al Horford coming off the bench.
I’m considerably more convinced about Melton starting than I am about the center position. If you asked me to put a number on the likelihood that Horford doesn’t start, I’d say roughly 67%, which probably sounds suspiciously precise for an informed hunch, but that’s about where I am after listening to Kerr discuss the big-man rotation throughout training camp.
On Ike, Kerr has only said Ike would play in the scenario that Bassey is out, not specifically that he’d start. But before we get into the center rotation, the more interesting story begins with Yaxel and Luka.
Yax, Luka and a “WTF” moment
Remember when Yaxel told us what happened before the Warriors’ preseason matchup with the Lakers?
Frank Vogel had apparently informed him that he’d be guarding Luka and Yaxel’s immediate reaction was about as candid as you could hope for from a rookie being handed that kind of assignment.
“What the fuck?!” 😂
Here you are, still learning the subtleties of NBA defense and one of the league’s great offensive manipulators is supposedly going to be your responsibility. I can only imagine what it feels like to have Vogel casually present that assignment as part of your normal preparation.
Luka ultimately sat out that preseason game, so we didn’t get to see how it might have unfolded, but the idea certainly hasn’t gone away.
Here’s Yaxel’s original account, beginning at approximately 01:46:
Then came Kerr’s Monday practice interview, when Steve was asked about Yaxel’s NBA debut and told a wonderful story about Magic Johnson’s first game with the Lakers in 1979, in what would’ve been a viral moment with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar if they’d had the Internet and social media back then. I’ll have more on that in our upcoming Kerr video on the YouTube channel, but the important part for our purposes was how Steve transitioned from Magic’s rookie experience to what awaits Yaxel against Los Angeles.
“We got Luka. He may be guarding Luka. There’s some tricks that he’s gonna have to get used to.”
Kerr didn’t guarantee that Yaxel would spend every possession guarding Luka, of course. When asked to elaborate, he emphasized that the assignments would depend on the opponent, the matchups and whether the Warriors needed Yaxel defending on or off the ball.
But the coaching staff has clearly considered Yaxel against Luka in more than one setting, and when Kerr separately confirmed that Yaxel would be in the starting lineup Wednesday, the possibility of that individual matchup became a lot more interesting.
Yax vs. Luka Round 1: Probably Okay
Now, we’ve already spent considerable time examining Yaxel’s defensive liabilities, including a dedicated Xs & Os livestream in which we studied his point-of-attack technique, help-side positioning and some of the mistakes he made against Sacramento.
Keegan Murray got him biting on a jab step, Ben Simmons beat him off the first step and there were possessions where Yaxel was late recognizing where the help needed to come from. We subsequently saw some of those issues again against the Lakers, including a possession where Austin Reaves attacked downhill and Yax appeared too concerned about a possible crossover, rather than simply cutting off the driving lane.
Those are real areas for improvement, and I’m not suggesting they’re going to disappear just because Opening Night has arrived, but here’s where I think the Luka matchup becomes particularly fascinating.
Luka is not necessarily one of those exceptionally shifty guards who relies on pure quickness to turn the corner. I’m not even sure if the words, “I’ma burn you,” go through his head when he sets the offense, which kind of makes you respect that Dallas Mavs Finals team because chances are, that’s all that Kyrie Irving ever thinks!
The Doncic brilliance is more often rooted in his elite, ball-sticking ball-handling acumen, changes of pace and sheer overall size, which allow him to overpower opposing guards or manipulate their balance until he gets wherever he wants to go. It is absolutely so unique in the history of basketball.
We’ve seen in the past with Jonathan Kuminga that this particular approach isn’t always so easy against an athlete who’s closer to Luka’s size and strong enough to absorb the contact. And in Yaxel’s case, we’re talking about somebody who’s actually bigger than Luka and potentially just as mobile, if not more so, when it comes to moving laterally and staying in front of him.
That’s why I think Yax might find some initial success against Luka, at least until Dončić starts pulling out his entire repertoire of pump fakes, shot fakes, pivots and other tricks.
What happens at the point-of-attack versus what happens after Luka has used his body to get into the paint, that’s the key to understanding — unlocking — Luka Doncic.
At the point-of-attack, Yaxel might actually be okay. He has the length to give Luka some space without immediately surrendering an open shot, and the size to avoid being bullied backward quite as easily as a smaller guard. Luka can certainly use his handle and changes of pace to create problems on the perimeter, but I’m less worried about Yax losing a straight-line physical matchup than I would be against a particularly explosive, smaller guard.
The real test, in my opinion, comes after Luka establishes position closer to the basket, because that’s where he can go through his series of pump fakes, get the defender leaning or leaving his feet and draw the kind of fouls that can completely change a rookie’s night.
The question is whether Luka will be able to get to those spots more or less at will against Yaxel, as he often does against smaller defenders, or whether Yax’s combination of size and mobility makes that first part of the process considerably more difficult.
That’s what I can’t wait to watch tonight.
Melton teaching Yaxel the “lowlights”
When a reporter asked how prepared Yaxel might be to defend Luka, Melton talked about how young players see the SportsCenter highlights of great offensive stars, but their teammates have to teach them the “lowlights” — the less glamorous details of frustrating those players, making them uncomfortable and continuing to compete even when they make difficult shots. [Entire transcript also behind the paywall below.]
I thought that was an excellent way of explaining what Yaxel needs to learn. Melton specifically mentioned that not many opponents are going to be able to simply bump Yaxel out of position, but warned that the rookie can still bail offensive players out by reaching, swiping down and committing unnecessary fouls.
Which, when you think about it, fits almost perfectly with the Luka scenario I’ve just described. The challenge isn’t necessarily whether Yaxel has the physical tools to make Luka work for his points. I think he does. It’s whether he can resist taking the bait once Luka starts using those offensive tricks to manufacture an advantage, especially around the paint.
Vogel has been emphasizing physicality and his “collision mentality” throughout camp, but there’s a difference between being physical and allowing a clever offensive player to use your physicality against you.
I’m encouraged that Melton, one of Golden State’s most accomplished point-of-attack defenders, is helping explain that distinction to Yaxel, which brings us to the next domino.
Somebody has to guard AR
With Brandin Podziemski dealing with his back injury, I’d be genuinely surprised if Kerr doesn’t start Melton next to Steph, and it’s not simply because he’s the next available guard on the depth chart. It’s because of Reaves.
We already saw in the preseason how difficult AR can be when he gets into his preferred actions, attacks a defender’s positioning and turns a relatively small advantage into a good shot or a trip to the foul line. The Warriors have had their share of problems containing him and if Podz isn’t available, I don’t think Golden State can afford to treat that assignment casually.
I like Brandon Williams, or B-Dub, as a creator. He’s got speed, can get downhill and brings an element of unpredictability to the offense, while LJ Cryer provides shooting and Gui Santos offers size and versatility. But none of those alternatives strikes me as the best primary point-of-attack answer to Reaves.
Melton does. He has the instincts, active hands and experience to take that assignment without needing the offense to revolve around him. And while Steph will undoubtedly be part of the team’s defensive shell, I don’t particularly want Curry spending Opening Night chasing Reaves through every action the Lakers can put together.
So if I’m Kerr, Melton starts alongside Steph, takes Reaves as his primary assignment and allows Steph to begin on Quentin Grimes.
That feels like the most sensible defensive arrangement to me and one I’d be willing to defend even if Steve ultimately chooses a different starting backcourt.
Knowledgeable Lakers fan adds wrinkle
There’s another interesting variable here. It came from a knowledgeable Lakers fan friend of mine who suggested that Los Angeles might start Ziaire Williams instead of Sandro Mamukelashvili.
I thought that was a good observation because, while Mamu can contribute offensively, Luka already presents certain defensive challenges for the Lakers and adding another player who might be targeted defensively isn’t necessarily the way I’d approach a Warriors team with Steph Curry.
Ziaire gives Los Angeles another lengthy, more switchable player, somebody who could potentially spend time on Steph and provide a different defensive look.
I don’t think that changes the lineup I’d choose for Golden State, but it affects how I’d think about the individual matchups. If the Lakers start Mamu, I’d initially assign Draymond to him, with Yaxel taking Luka and Melton handling Reaves. If Ziaire starts instead, there’s more flexibility in the forward matchups, although my priorities wouldn’t fundamentally change.
In fact, the possibility that Los Angeles might choose more perimeter defense makes me even less inclined to sacrifice Golden State’s own perimeter defense by leaving Melton on the bench.
And that’s why I see something of a domino effect here. Once you decide where to use Yaxel, then account for Reaves, some of the other pieces start falling into place, which leaves one rather large question.
Who starts at the 5?
The Lakers have Walker Kessler, while Golden State has Horford, Ike and various smaller configurations featuring Draymond or Yaxel.
I realize the conventional answer might be Horford and there are certainly good reasons for it. He’s the established veteran, can stretch the floor, understands positioning and has the experience to help stabilize a team working through changes to its offense.
But here’s why I’d seriously consider bringing Horford off the bench instead: minutes and rhythm. My expectation is that Golden State will be careful with Horford’s workload, potentially keeping him somewhere around 20 minutes on many nights.
If you start him, play him for a relatively short opening stint and then sit him for an extended stretch, you’re asking an older player — and an important shooter — to repeatedly regain his rhythm.
I’d rather have Horford play more concentrated stretches off the bench, allowing Kerr to preserve his minutes for situations where his experience and shooting can have the greatest impact. And you definitely have to pencil him in as the closer, but starting the game and closing the game are two entirely different decisions.
I’m not suggesting Horford isn’t important enough to start. I’m just trying to maximize the value of the minutes he’s going to play.
Kerr said Tuesday that if Bassey couldn’t play, Ike would play and deserved the opportunity after his work in training camp. Steve didn’t say Graham would start, though, so that’s my own coaching suggestion.
Ike gives you the conventional center matchup against Kessler instead of asking Dray to spend the opening minutes battling that size inside. It’s a relatively straightforward positional assignment, even though a rookie making his NBA debut will obviously have plenty of other things to learn.
There’s also the two-way contract consideration. The Warriors have to manage Ike’s NBA availability over the course of the season.
Incidentally, with the Kristaps Porzingis news that just broke, the two-way games active limitation makes me think Mike Dunleavy, Jr. has to trade him. And so, come clean to the 29 other GMs that the Warriors are not hiding anything about KP and be intentional, announce that to Shams Charania of ESPN, and probably spend a weak first-round pick in the process. I will discuss this in an upcoming capacity cap sheet live and the link will eventually appear in our “Decision Tree” playlist.
Of course, Kerr could choose the smaller alternative, starting Gui Santos alongside Steph, Melton, Yaxel and Draymond, which would shift Draymond to the 5. That’s probably the strongest counterargument to my approach, especially given Kerr’s longstanding comfort with smaller lineups.
I just think Kessler makes the case for a conventional center a little more compelling than usual, particularly in the opening minutes. And all the projected Lakers starters are healthy on the injury report. Collin Sexton (calf) is questionable, and Adou Thiero and Cameron Carr are out.
How I’d line up defensively
If the Lakers open with Luka, Reaves, Grimes, Mamu and Kessler, I’d begin with Yaxel on Luka, Melton on Reaves, Steph on Grimes and Draymond on Mamu, leaving Bassey — or Ike, if Bassey can’t go — to deal with Kessler.
If my Lakers friend’s suggestion proves correct and Williams starts instead of Mamu, the forward matchups become more flexible, but I’d still want Yaxel to take that Luka challenge and Melton to make life as difficult as possible for Reaves.
Obviously, none of these assignments would remain intact for 48 minutes. There will be switches, help, cross-matches and all the usual adjustments, particularly against players like Luka and Reaves, who are constantly looking for ways to manipulate the defense.
But there’s value in deciding how you want to begin the game, and therefore how to not let Luka set the tone.
One rookie, a lot of responsibility
What encourages me most isn’t that Kerr has declared Yaxel the next Draymond or the next “face of the franchise”, even after Draymond himself spoke so enthusiastically about the rookie’s future. [That part is also in the transcript below.]
It’s that Steve has been careful not to place those expectations on him while acknowledging that Yaxel has earned a starting spot, can be trusted with the basketball and is ready to contribute immediately.
There’s a difference between protecting a rookie from unrealistic expectations and protecting him from the actual experience of competing against elite NBA players. Kerr seems quite comfortable allowing Yaxel to learn through the latter.
I think Yaxel’s physical tools might make that experience a little more interesting than people expect. Preferably without sending Luka to the foul line too often. Gotta just not bite on any fakes and if he hits a three with your arms stretched out with proper respectable body space, so be it.
Also consider joining us for the Watch Party tonight! The link will be posted on our Livestream Playlist in due time. After that, we will also have postgame coverage.
For paid subscribers: Kerr/Melton Q&As
Below are the October 20 practice Q&As with Steve and Melt, lightly cleaned for readability. They contain the original discussions behind several of the observations in this article, including Kerr’s remarks about Yaxel, his refusal to identify Steph’s starting backcourt partner, the possibilities involving Bassey and Ike, and Melton’s explanation of how the Warriors are preparing Yaxel to defend players like Luka.
Melton also discusses the evolving Warriors offense, including how its familiar split actions are changing within the new five-out approach, which is well worth reading beyond tonight’s particular matchup.
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