Are the Warriors a Real Option for LeBron James?
[free agency talk via cap sheet analysis]
How did I go from from “keep Kristaps Porziņģis” to suddenly pondering if the Warriors are legitimately a LeBron James destination?
NBA free agency moves fast!
At the time, the math and the difficulty in viewing Moses Moody or, really, anybody other than Porzingis as a trade chip supported the conclusion that the only way to open up a Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception (NTMLE) was to renounce him as a free agent.
But just keeping him preserved a valuable salary slot that could later be used in a trade down the line. Giving that up for a difficult path to the NTMLE simply didn’t seem worthwhile.
Then the dominoes started falling. First, Draymond Green opted out. Instead of locking in his $27.8 million player option, Green chose free agency, immediately opening new possibilities for how the Warriors could structure the roster.
That alone didn’t solve everything, but it cracked open a door that had previously been closed. Then came the biggest shock of the offseason.
LeBron James and the Lakers publicly acknowledged that they would be parting ways, complete with mutual farewell messages on social media. Suddenly, this wasn’t just another rumor cycle.
LeBron was genuinely available and, now, the cap sheet has become the story. The Warriors have been linked to stars before: Lauri Markkanen, Paul George, Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokuonmpo, heck, Jimmy Butler — and we actually signed that one!
Every summer and February trade deadline seems to produce another blockbuster rumor. LThis one feels different, not because James is necessarily more likely to end up in Golden State, but because the Collective Bargaining Agreement plays such a critical role in his decision.
This is no longer necessarily about basketball fit. It’s about what each team can legally offer. That distinction has become the focus of my recent livestreams.What can each team actually offer him under the salary cap?
As if that weren’t enough, another report completely reshaped Golden State’s options. When KP agreed to his new two-year, $40 million contract, many assumed he had simply re-signed as a free agent.
Instead, Marc Stein later reported that the deal was structured as an extension to his existing contract. That matters enormously because extensions can carry different trade implications than newly signed free agents. Because sign-and-trade deals require at least three years and Porzingis’ deal was reported as a 1+1, begore Stein’s tweet I had thought nevermind, KP will stay as a Warrior.
Instead of Porziņģis simply occupying cap space, his contract could theoretically function as one of Golden State’s most important trade assets immediately. That reopened discussions about trade constructions that previously appeared impossible.
Then came another twist. Salary-cap expert Yossi Gozlan also weighed in. His conclusion: Based on his decade of experience with extension signings, not only would trading Kristaps be considered a “reneg” of the deal and therefore Porzingis was highly unlikely to be turned around and traded right after signing on the dotted line, if Golden State wants to maximize its flexibility — particularly if the Warriors hope to use the full NTMLE on LeBron — Moody may have to become part of the equation.
That’s a painful conversation, as Moody has become a fan favorite and remains one of the organization’s better developmental stories. But the new CBA often forces front offices to choose between sentiment and flexibility.
Over the last several days we’ve essentially built a running “Decision Tree” together. Every report changes another branch. Every contract changes another calculation. Every insider update sends us back to the spreadsheet.
Tonight we’ll continue that process. We’ll compare what the Warriors can actually offer LeBron with what appears to be available from several of the other reported contenders, including:
New York
Philadelphia
Cleveland
Miami
Denver
Minnesota
The question isn’t simply:Who wants LeBron?
The better question is: Who can actually construct a legal path to signing him?
That’s where things get fascinating. As of this writing, Golden State appears to possess one of the strongest financial paths available.
That doesn’t guarantee LeBron becomes a Warrior. There are basketball considerations, family considerations, championship-contending considerations, organizational relationships and franchise reputations.
That’s worth exploring carefully, not just because of LBJ, but because understanding these rules also helps explain every other move Mike Dunleavy, Jr. makes this summer.
So, join us on the live or check out the archived version — I always post detailed timestamps within one hour after our livestreams air.
If you’ve been following this offseason with us, you know these live chats aren’t rumor shows. They’re work sessions.
We pull up the cap sheets, we test ideas, we stress-test trades and sometimes during that process, we discover why an idea won’t work. Sometimes we stumble onto one that just might.
And it’s not just for this season. It hasn’t been talked about much by anyone in DubNation save for myself, but the Warriors are on schedule to have tons of cap space available next summer. They’ll be able to go on a free agent shopping spree akin to what the LA Lakers did these past several days.
Makes you wonder if we might be better served to hang on to those draft picks and maybe not throw ourselves at a non-All-Star like Trey Murphy. As for Jaylen Brown in the thumbnail, we can assume that the Boston Celtics did not want to trade for an injured Jimmy, but now, the Philadelphia 76ers do become an intriguing destination for LeBron. We’ll examine the math for all of this.
With his future now hanging over the league and new reports arriving almost hourly, there’s never been a better time to walk through the Decision Tree together.
I’ll see you live tonight:
One thing I’ve really grown to appreciate over the last week is how collaborative these livestreams have become. Together we keep refining the Decision Tree until we arrive at the most realistic possibilities.
Whether LeBron ultimately lands in Golden State or not, the process itself has become one of my favorite parts of covering this offseason.
🫶💙💛