Should Moses Moody sign an NTMLE-level contract extension?

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Anthony Slater of The Athletic says sources tell him Moses Moody has been offered an MLE-level extension — I’m assuming this means non-taxpayer mid-level of $12-14M rather than the TPMLE of $5.2M. Ironically, I’ve been saying all along on our livestreams (and somewhere on this Substack) that the blueprint for Moody is De’Anthony Melton… who is making exactly the NTMLE of ~$12M!

When the Warriors’ road shootaround in Las Vegas opened on Tuesday morning, Steve Kerr was seated on the padded scorer’s table next to Moses Moody, the two midway through a conversation that lasted at least another 15 minutes. This is a common Kerr coaching approach. At various times throughout a season, he’ll pull a player to the side after practice to answer questions and gather feedback.

Moody has a decision to make in the next week. He’s extension-eligible until Monday’s deadline. The Warriors and Moody’s representatives have discussed the framework of a possible deal, league sources said, near the midlevel exception range for multiple seasons. At a palatable number, they believe Moody’s talent and character are worth investing in long-term.

In a normal NBA season, embracing the “bet on yourself” mentality that is highly prevalent in our AAU culture, I don’t see how Rich Paul would let Moody take this deal. Melton himself, assuming a solid year helping the team reach the playoffs, let’s say, would probably be looking to make the next year somewhere between the NTMLE and the absolute ceiling for elite catch-and-shoot 2-guards: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope at $22 million.

Let’s say, God forbid, Melton is plagued with injuries and Moses is the go-to shooting guard this year. Wouldn’t Moody then deserve something better than exactly the NTMLE by the time we reached next summer?

But then again, Joe Lacob now officially has a reputation — good for him, as a business man — of making solid early season offers (okay, maybe just one so far) which later turned into less, due to market conditions. For example, Klay Thompson was offered $24 million at the start of last season, ended up getting the cold shoulder during the off-season (my theory is that Lacob was giddy from Buddy Hield being available for only under $9 million), gave Joe the cold shoulder back by mentally picturing himself only in a Mavs or Lakers uniform even though he would’ve accepted $20 million if Joe hadn’t given him the cold shoulder in the first place…

We know how that ended: $17 million worth the Mavs is a whole touchdown less than $24M. Granted, Klay got three years, all guaranteed.

[Btw I made a video version of this article…]

I’m sure Rich Paul has a ton of feelers and/or financial models as to whether or not Caldwell-Pope’s slightly declining contract heading into 2025-26, as a primary benchmark, will be deemed fair market value or will the environment for catch-and-shoot guards continue its downward slope? How will the epic 2025 Draft affect that and even the still-deep 2026 Draft?

So maybe the new NBA is one where you actually don’t bet on yourself anymore, because of market forces generally out of your control. Owners are scared of the second and first aprons. Combine that with two predicted strong draft classes in a row, everyone across the 30 teams just getting smarter about things, and the — let’s call them — “enthusiastic” deals for non-All-Stars become fewer and farther between.

And, finally, how comfortable is Moody in Golden State? He sure seems to like it here; his older brother Miles Moody is actually employed by the team in the multimedia department, and by all accounts his mom Rona Moody is enjoying San Francisco. I can even say that her interactions with certain so-called “fan accounts” have been nothing but positive. 😉

And, obviously, the Golden State organization is first class. By contrast, I’ve already gotten indications that certain every day “perks” of the Warriors haven’t been as prevalent in Dallas for Klay.

Anyways, fwiw, despite the fan base freaking out over minutes, Moses had rather normal rookie and second years. Last year, his third year, was complicated by the offense and especially the defense evolving away from Klay, with a sprinkle of Chris Paul rotation gymnastics. The more I think about it, especially with Draymond Green’s not one but two suspensions, Andrew Wiggins’ super-down year probably because of his dad’s waning health, and the desperation to win games by playing Brandin Podziemski because he was the one guy making hustle plays on both ends of the court, it’s pretty incredible the Dubs won 46 games in a stacked West.

If you actually look at Moody’s game log for 2023-24, it was not so much the minutes per game (17.5, which is not glaring) as it was the streaks of DNPs or garbage time here and there. Again, even Melton averaged 19-20 minutes per game as a rotation player his first five seasons before starting a whole slew of games for Philadelphia the last two years. Moses last season was not that far off from the young Melton comparable, if you only look at games played and exclude the Moody DNPs and non-rotation games.

That being said, Mo still made the money he made, which is a predetermined amount set by his selection at the 14th slot. He certainly can’t be mad at that. And so if he likes living close to Chase, if he likes honing his game with cutting edge niche strategies with Warriors staff, with the market for 2-guards on a downward trend of late — perhaps starkly, if you’re looking at Hield’s single-digit-millions per-year contract — and the Klay debacle fresh on all our minds, maybe it’s a good idea nowadays to take Lacob’s first offer.

It’s funny, but I’ve been seeing a lot of people out there have conflated “rotational player” with being a starter or not being part of the rotation. Sometimes, I wish Kerr would just give a face like Gregg Popovich’s “stop it!” and move on to the next question. But Steve is so honest and open and he genuinely loves the media in-person.

But like Melton, and as Kerr said verbatim at the Kings postgame, Moody is a rotational player. That means he will not get 30+ minutes, but he will get around 20 minutes per game. I mean, Moody is in the rotation and has been nearly all preseason even where experimentation is happening (the one time being last night’s near-60-point blowout)!

Not starting doesn’t mean not being in the rotation. Being a rotational player doesn’t mean getting DNPs and only playing garbage time. The words “rotational player” is a compliment in the NBA. Twenty minutes per game is like a five-minute stretch each quarter between 8:00 and 3:00 where you’re filling in when a starter rests. Moody not starting is not a bad thing! Sigh.

I’m not sure why this confusion-without-knowing-they’re-confused is happening. Maybe Moses racking up DNPs or garbage minutes last season makes people automatically fear that the exact same thing will happen this year? Maybe the extremes of social media have spread a bit too far.

Oh and btw paying Moses $12-14 million per year inherently means he will have a role on this team going forward. He will occupy the spot Melton will probably leave behind next year. But I guess people just want to worry about it. 🤷🏻‍♂️

I sort of can’t blame them for this, though. Your brain is the most advanced prediction machine in the universe. People are, unfortunately, built to take experiences from the past and project them into the future, as if everything in the past were to play out in the future, over and over again.

The issue is this: this is a survival instinct. Your brain was built to keep you alive, to keep you out of harm’s way, to be super-risk averse and fear change. The complication lies in appreciation and gratitude, which are not survival instincts. Your brain has to make you feel safe first before you can have joy and love and therefore appreciate Moody’s on-court contributions without a care in the world as to how minutes he plays. Plus, the team has been winning, but people have been complaining these past five games when they should be celebrating the ascension of Moses, celebrating how Steve has been making it all flow on a very deep team built for the rigors of 82 games.

One thing I want to point out from a narrative and social media standpoint is that Moody himself seems to have his head on straight whereas the very sects of Outraged DubNation are too busy being, well, outraged to hear Moses’ very own public message(s):

You're not in Pee-Wee playing with your friends, getting as much playing time as you want. Like, now it's a job. So, that's what it's about. Taking that, seeing stuff for what it is, not taking stuff personal and just putting your Big Boy pants up, going to work, seeing the situation. You want to change the situation, then change yourself.

…if I change my ways because of something else, then now I'm out here doing some goofy stuff and I'm getting away from my principles. So if you — if you're moving off of your principles, I'm not doing it for nobody else. I'm not being professional for nobody else. I'm being professional because that's the best way for me mentally to come to work every day, to go into life, to approach life. So I can't change that because if you do it to get something out of it, then that's how these dudes get lost. And that's when you get out here and you're doing wild stuff.

It was almost as if he were talking directly to the people addicted to conveniently complaining on social media apps! Think wild. Think goofy. 💯 🎯

But, as of this writing, I’d still start Melton over Moody if October 23rd were the playoffs instead of Opening Night. The reason is point-of-attack defense. Just like with Klay, people always automatically envision offensive skill set when it comes to player evaluation (Klay’s defense, paired with the limitations of that of one Wardell Stephen Curry, was the reason the former was benched).

Moody’s ability to shuffle his feet laterally is just quite simply not as good as Melton’s. It’s not bad, though. But yeah, defense wins playoff games and championships. And I’m still starting Wiggins over Melton, too. The whole narrative on Moses has been completely overblown to the point that there’s palpable angst on the same old apps when the starting lineup is announced and Moody isn’t on it. Insert stern Coach Pop glare here.

For this team to make a deep playoff run, Wiggins needs to be performing at his 2022 fringe All-Star level and Melton and Moody just need to be themselves. I say “fringe All-Star” because shoo-in All-Stars Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Anthony Davis (not to mention Zion Williamson) all happened to be injured that year. So if Wiggs plays like 2022 Wiggs and doesn’t make it to ASW, that’s okay.

De’Anthony and Moses need to be the next younger iterations of Otto Porter, Jr. — behold: a rotation player (who eventually started Games 4 through 6 of the Finals)! Can you imagine the depth of having two Otto Porters on our squad instead of just one?

Don’t forget to enjoy the actual basketball being played…

🫶💙💛