I cannot overstate how much I think thinking "win-now" with a top 7 pick would be a horrible choice. I have no insight into the thought process of the times, but I highly doubt Bird and Johnson, the examples mentioned, were considered for their potential to help their team win at time of drafting (Boston even w…
I cannot overstate how much I think thinking "win-now" with a top 7 pick would be a horrible choice. I have no insight into the thought process of the times, but I highly doubt Bird and Johnson, the examples mentioned, were considered for their potential to help their team win at time of drafting (Boston even waited a year for Bird, so I'd be 100% sure "win-now" wasn't a part of the mindset). "Win-now" and to a lesser extent "fit" are considerations for top picks that pretty much always lead to horrible decision-making to the point that selling the picks way under value would do *less* harm to the franchise's future.
Yep. I appreciate you reading. There are a lot of angles to this, which is why I decided on the long form version on this debate. It’ll be interesting to see how things play out eventually.
I take your point, but for a team with as much win-now potential as we have, I think that "raw" is also a bad choice for an asset as valuable as a #7 Pick in a very solid draft class. Remember that like 9 our of 10 #7 picks ever turns out to be more than a solid starter, so high ceiling comes with a high risk, too. A large % of fans can't seem to see anything but the upside. I have to wonder if these guys eschew a 401(k) in favor of putting all of their "savings" into Powerball entries.
I’m hoping the pick can do both. But if I’m looking at the glass half-full, we have a good crop of guys to choose from who could maybe fit that mold of both: Kuminga if he drops, Jalen Johnson if he develops a good shot, Moody, Franz Wagner or my sleeper pick Kai Jones.
True, going with a risky project would not be ideal either. Obviously, there must be at least a good floor. Still, I wouldn't want to base this key pick on fit mostly or fully with the current squad or their perceived ability to aid us immediately in an upcoming post-season. If you permit me to run with your analogy, that'd be like putting your savings in a low-yield saving account instead of an ETF which has risks but yields much greater rewards.
I agree with you that thinking "win now" with #7 would be a mistake. As far as Magic and Bird, they were legends in college, and I suspect both teams were 99.9% sure they would be impact starters as rookies. And indeed they were, as you surely will recall. At any rate, they're not comps for #7. HB is a better comparison, and while he surely isn't a big star, he was a solid pick at #7. I'm another vote for a long, athletic wing with skills. I don't want Mitchell at 7 or 14, just plain not interested. As for Jalen Johnson, whom PMC mentions below, it's not just his shooting; I imagine the Warriors will check out his reputed character issues thoroughly before going that route. I would be happier with Moody or Franz Wagner.
Great discussion, everyone.
I cannot overstate how much I think thinking "win-now" with a top 7 pick would be a horrible choice. I have no insight into the thought process of the times, but I highly doubt Bird and Johnson, the examples mentioned, were considered for their potential to help their team win at time of drafting (Boston even waited a year for Bird, so I'd be 100% sure "win-now" wasn't a part of the mindset). "Win-now" and to a lesser extent "fit" are considerations for top picks that pretty much always lead to horrible decision-making to the point that selling the picks way under value would do *less* harm to the franchise's future.
Yep. I appreciate you reading. There are a lot of angles to this, which is why I decided on the long form version on this debate. It’ll be interesting to see how things play out eventually.
I take your point, but for a team with as much win-now potential as we have, I think that "raw" is also a bad choice for an asset as valuable as a #7 Pick in a very solid draft class. Remember that like 9 our of 10 #7 picks ever turns out to be more than a solid starter, so high ceiling comes with a high risk, too. A large % of fans can't seem to see anything but the upside. I have to wonder if these guys eschew a 401(k) in favor of putting all of their "savings" into Powerball entries.
I’m hoping the pick can do both. But if I’m looking at the glass half-full, we have a good crop of guys to choose from who could maybe fit that mold of both: Kuminga if he drops, Jalen Johnson if he develops a good shot, Moody, Franz Wagner or my sleeper pick Kai Jones.
True, going with a risky project would not be ideal either. Obviously, there must be at least a good floor. Still, I wouldn't want to base this key pick on fit mostly or fully with the current squad or their perceived ability to aid us immediately in an upcoming post-season. If you permit me to run with your analogy, that'd be like putting your savings in a low-yield saving account instead of an ETF which has risks but yields much greater rewards.
I think we will get a guy with a good floor 🙏
I agree with you that thinking "win now" with #7 would be a mistake. As far as Magic and Bird, they were legends in college, and I suspect both teams were 99.9% sure they would be impact starters as rookies. And indeed they were, as you surely will recall. At any rate, they're not comps for #7. HB is a better comparison, and while he surely isn't a big star, he was a solid pick at #7. I'm another vote for a long, athletic wing with skills. I don't want Mitchell at 7 or 14, just plain not interested. As for Jalen Johnson, whom PMC mentions below, it's not just his shooting; I imagine the Warriors will check out his reputed character issues thoroughly before going that route. I would be happier with Moody or Franz Wagner.