No 19 yr old will help you to win now. They are all projects.. duarte is more of a win now player. As for mitchell, i will never draft a 6ft guard with 6'4 wingspan with poor FT shooting with a lottery slot.. its like saying u want to draft pat bev in the lottery.. if they want for upside. Take moody or bouknight at 7. Take duarte at 14 and lets call it a day..
Jul 17, 2021Liked by Gabe Johnson, Poor Man's Commish
Great discussion, everyone.
I cannot overstate how much I think thinking "win-now" with a top 7 pick would be a horrible choice. I have no insight into the thought process of the times, but I highly doubt Bird and Johnson, the examples mentioned, were considered for their potential to help their team win at time of drafting (Boston even waited a year for Bird, so I'd be 100% sure "win-now" wasn't a part of the mindset). "Win-now" and to a lesser extent "fit" are considerations for top picks that pretty much always lead to horrible decision-making to the point that selling the picks way under value would do *less* harm to the franchise's future.
Yep. I appreciate you reading. There are a lot of angles to this, which is why I decided on the long form version on this debate. It’ll be interesting to see how things play out eventually.
I take your point, but for a team with as much win-now potential as we have, I think that "raw" is also a bad choice for an asset as valuable as a #7 Pick in a very solid draft class. Remember that like 9 our of 10 #7 picks ever turns out to be more than a solid starter, so high ceiling comes with a high risk, too. A large % of fans can't seem to see anything but the upside. I have to wonder if these guys eschew a 401(k) in favor of putting all of their "savings" into Powerball entries.
I’m hoping the pick can do both. But if I’m looking at the glass half-full, we have a good crop of guys to choose from who could maybe fit that mold of both: Kuminga if he drops, Jalen Johnson if he develops a good shot, Moody, Franz Wagner or my sleeper pick Kai Jones.
True, going with a risky project would not be ideal either. Obviously, there must be at least a good floor. Still, I wouldn't want to base this key pick on fit mostly or fully with the current squad or their perceived ability to aid us immediately in an upcoming post-season. If you permit me to run with your analogy, that'd be like putting your savings in a low-yield saving account instead of an ETF which has risks but yields much greater rewards.
I agree with you that thinking "win now" with #7 would be a mistake. As far as Magic and Bird, they were legends in college, and I suspect both teams were 99.9% sure they would be impact starters as rookies. And indeed they were, as you surely will recall. At any rate, they're not comps for #7. HB is a better comparison, and while he surely isn't a big star, he was a solid pick at #7. I'm another vote for a long, athletic wing with skills. I don't want Mitchell at 7 or 14, just plain not interested. As for Jalen Johnson, whom PMC mentions below, it's not just his shooting; I imagine the Warriors will check out his reputed character issues thoroughly before going that route. I would be happier with Moody or Franz Wagner.
Jul 17, 2021Liked by Gabe Johnson, Poor Man's Commish
Really excellent summary! FWIW, I don't side with either the lovers or the haters. Regardless of how 1-6 goes, Mitchell is not my top choice at #7, but I'd find him hard to resist at #14.
Length is an issue. I think his defense translates well to the NBA
You actually changed my mind. (Which isn't easy to do.) Davion Mitchell is just a Pat Beverly clone. Not a lottery pick. There are much better options at #7 and #14. I'm rooting for the FO to pick a guy that will make us all proud.
The Warriors have a great history with 4 year guards in the lottery. Mitch Richmond at 5 and Tim Hardaway at 14. How many people would say they were to old to have an upside?
Only thing I would caution you on is that the game has changed since then. The Mikal Bridges comp and PHX being in the Finals for us to see his value right now, to me, is glaring. At least that’s my imo as of today.
Davion mitchell dominated in college against 19yr olds. Im sure its a different game playing vs grown men.. can mitchell for all his defensive prowess guard steph, dame , kyrie, harden, russ.. the answer is no and my answer is its not worth it..6ft guard is also not switchable.. we saw how steph dropped 49 on 6'4 lu dort like he wasnt even there.. or 41 on jrue who was even 1st team all defensive. Imagine a rookie vs that type of offense in the playoffs. Championship basketball is a grown man's game.. kids are barred
No doubt, but the comparison is guys who DIDN'T dominate against 19-year-olds -- the comparison is not against Dort or Holiday, but against who ELSE we can draft.
Also, any rookies we take at best will be backups. We'll be asking them to match up with other backups, not handing them the marquee matchup every night.
That being said, I'm not in favor of Mitchell at #7, but I think we'd be crazy to pass on him if he lasts to #14.
No 19 yr old will help you to win now. They are all projects.. duarte is more of a win now player. As for mitchell, i will never draft a 6ft guard with 6'4 wingspan with poor FT shooting with a lottery slot.. its like saying u want to draft pat bev in the lottery.. if they want for upside. Take moody or bouknight at 7. Take duarte at 14 and lets call it a day..
spot on....a "6 foot defensive stopper" in the top half of the lottery (in a strong draft) is obscene
Great discussion, everyone.
I cannot overstate how much I think thinking "win-now" with a top 7 pick would be a horrible choice. I have no insight into the thought process of the times, but I highly doubt Bird and Johnson, the examples mentioned, were considered for their potential to help their team win at time of drafting (Boston even waited a year for Bird, so I'd be 100% sure "win-now" wasn't a part of the mindset). "Win-now" and to a lesser extent "fit" are considerations for top picks that pretty much always lead to horrible decision-making to the point that selling the picks way under value would do *less* harm to the franchise's future.
Yep. I appreciate you reading. There are a lot of angles to this, which is why I decided on the long form version on this debate. It’ll be interesting to see how things play out eventually.
I take your point, but for a team with as much win-now potential as we have, I think that "raw" is also a bad choice for an asset as valuable as a #7 Pick in a very solid draft class. Remember that like 9 our of 10 #7 picks ever turns out to be more than a solid starter, so high ceiling comes with a high risk, too. A large % of fans can't seem to see anything but the upside. I have to wonder if these guys eschew a 401(k) in favor of putting all of their "savings" into Powerball entries.
I’m hoping the pick can do both. But if I’m looking at the glass half-full, we have a good crop of guys to choose from who could maybe fit that mold of both: Kuminga if he drops, Jalen Johnson if he develops a good shot, Moody, Franz Wagner or my sleeper pick Kai Jones.
True, going with a risky project would not be ideal either. Obviously, there must be at least a good floor. Still, I wouldn't want to base this key pick on fit mostly or fully with the current squad or their perceived ability to aid us immediately in an upcoming post-season. If you permit me to run with your analogy, that'd be like putting your savings in a low-yield saving account instead of an ETF which has risks but yields much greater rewards.
I think we will get a guy with a good floor 🙏
I agree with you that thinking "win now" with #7 would be a mistake. As far as Magic and Bird, they were legends in college, and I suspect both teams were 99.9% sure they would be impact starters as rookies. And indeed they were, as you surely will recall. At any rate, they're not comps for #7. HB is a better comparison, and while he surely isn't a big star, he was a solid pick at #7. I'm another vote for a long, athletic wing with skills. I don't want Mitchell at 7 or 14, just plain not interested. As for Jalen Johnson, whom PMC mentions below, it's not just his shooting; I imagine the Warriors will check out his reputed character issues thoroughly before going that route. I would be happier with Moody or Franz Wagner.
Really excellent summary! FWIW, I don't side with either the lovers or the haters. Regardless of how 1-6 goes, Mitchell is not my top choice at #7, but I'd find him hard to resist at #14.
Length is an issue. I think his defense translates well to the NBA
So many variables this Draft! I’m still leaning heavy on wings but I also think it depends on who we get for free agency.
Can he guard luka, if no then we pass
You actually changed my mind. (Which isn't easy to do.) Davion Mitchell is just a Pat Beverly clone. Not a lottery pick. There are much better options at #7 and #14. I'm rooting for the FO to pick a guy that will make us all proud.
The Warriors have a great history with 4 year guards in the lottery. Mitch Richmond at 5 and Tim Hardaway at 14. How many people would say they were to old to have an upside?
Only thing I would caution you on is that the game has changed since then. The Mikal Bridges comp and PHX being in the Finals for us to see his value right now, to me, is glaring. At least that’s my imo as of today.
And Steph and Klay were both 3-year college players.
too old*
The next couple of weeks will have a lot of draft discussions! Appreciate all the discussion,
Appreciate the long read!
Davion mitchell dominated in college against 19yr olds. Im sure its a different game playing vs grown men.. can mitchell for all his defensive prowess guard steph, dame , kyrie, harden, russ.. the answer is no and my answer is its not worth it..6ft guard is also not switchable.. we saw how steph dropped 49 on 6'4 lu dort like he wasnt even there.. or 41 on jrue who was even 1st team all defensive. Imagine a rookie vs that type of offense in the playoffs. Championship basketball is a grown man's game.. kids are barred
No doubt, but the comparison is guys who DIDN'T dominate against 19-year-olds -- the comparison is not against Dort or Holiday, but against who ELSE we can draft.
Also, any rookies we take at best will be backups. We'll be asking them to match up with other backups, not handing them the marquee matchup every night.
That being said, I'm not in favor of Mitchell at #7, but I think we'd be crazy to pass on him if he lasts to #14.